The top two in La Liga go head-to-head this weekend in the Madrid derby. We analyse where the game will be won and lost.
Saturday’s Derbi Madrileño promises to be one of the games of the season in La Liga, with the top two, Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid, separated by just a single point in the table.
Ahead of a potentially season-defining clash, we take a look at three pressing questions for each camp and consider what might be about to unfold at the Santiago Bernabéu…
Will Ancelotti Stick by Top-Heavy Starting XI?
“The game was pretty well controlled, but Espanyol played very well in transition and defended well… they caught us with one and scored. It was the game they wanted to play,” said Carlo Ancelotti following his side’s 1-0 defeat at Espanyol last week.
If he hasn’t already, Diego Simeone will no doubt be absorbing that game before the weekend. He’ll have been listening too. The “game [Espanyol] wanted to play”, according to Ancelotti, might well look like the one the Atlético boss wants on Saturday as well.
This will be the 12th time his Atlético side have played at the Bernabéu in La Liga. Across the previous 11, they’ve averaged 36% possession and faced 100 more shots than they’ve had themselves (92 for, 192 against). Despite that disparity, the aggregate scoreline across those games stands at Real Madrid 10-8 Atlético Madrid, with both sides winning as many times as they’ve lost (3).
The visitors know that through what looks like adversity, they can still be competitive when all is said and done. Both coaches will prepare their teams accordingly.
For Ancelotti, the question will be whether to start with Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo – as he did against Espanyol – or whether to sacrifice the latter and opt for an extra midfielder.
The dilemma comes from knowing they’ll have to break down a strong defensive block. That might require all the attacking resources they have, but could also mean continuing to run the defensive risks that come with a top-heavy starting XI. As we can see in their average positions against Espanyol above, their attackers play high and have been easily separated from their team following turnovers this season.
Real Madrid’s record against high-quality opponents has been underwhelming this season too, owing much to that lack of balance. In the nine games they’ve played this term against sides ranked in the top 30 in Opta’s Power Rankings, they’ve won just twice. Both of those wins came against a side with a uniquely specific style in Atalanta too, and they’ve lost six of their last seven against such opposition (Barcelona twice, Lille, Milan, Liverpool and Athletic Club).
Another team they failed to beat on this list was, indeed, Atlético. Their capital rivals have the best defensive record in La Liga this season, and they have a recent track record of winning big games through their durability (as well as historically). Atlético are unbeaten in the four games in which they’ve had less than 40% possession this season, while three of those have been wins against elite opposition in Paris Saint-Germain, Barcelona and Bayer Leverkusen.
‘Survive, survive, hit’ has worked for them on enough occasions – and in big games – for Simeone to trust in the current squad’s powers of resistance.
Real Madrid have, and probably always will, the talent advantage on Atlético. What happens next will be marked by whether Ancelotti leans all the way into his match-winning ability or relents against Simeone with some pragmatism of his own.
Whatever the Approach, Can Real Madrid’s Defence Hold Up?
In this season’s reverse fixture – a 1-1 draw across town – Real Madrid’s starting back four comprised Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, Antonio Rüdiger and Ferland Mendy. In other words, their best possible group.
This time round, Ancelotti will only be able to field one of those names – and potentially none depending on his choice. Should Mendy get the nod at left-back, it would be the first time Real Madrid have ever used a starting back four of Lucas Vázquez, Raúl Asencio, Aurélien Tchouaméni and Mendy. If it’s Fran García instead of Mendy, it will be only the second time they’ve used that particular defensive four – the other time coming in a defeat at Athletic in December.
Providing Real Madrid opt for their ‘gala XI’ and roll out all of their top attacking talent, the equation looks precarious: an almost – or completely – new defensive group as the last line in a team that has lacked organisation and application ahead of it for much of the season. Los Blancos have been played through too easily and too often, creating a cascade of events that has led to breakdowns further down the chain.
Scenes like this one have been a recurring theme in games where they’ve dropped points this term.
The home side’s untested defence are, of course, unlikely to be subject to a barrage of constant attacks. But Atlético Madrid coming with a defensive gameplan won’t let them off the hook. When they can recover the ball and find their moments to play, they are a talented team who have plenty of resources to create.
Antoine Griezmann has game-winning ability and adapts to all possible contexts; Julián Alvarez has added a decisive goal threat with Griezmann-like combination play; Giuliano Simeone is a relentless off-ball runner; Rodrigo De Paul is La Liga’s through-ball specialist; and the likes of Marcos Llorente and Javi Galán (if fit) give them plenty of legs to spring into attacks and get up the pitch.
Atlético are also the best late-game team in La Liga this season. Their goal difference from the 60th minute onwards is a league-high +15, with 17 goals scored and only two conceded. Not to mention they’ve already scored three winners in the 90th minute or later in the UEFA Champions League this term, which is already the most by a team in a single campaign in the competition’s history.
Their late-game strength is summed up by the fact they are now using Alexander Sørloth – who almost finished as La Liga’s top scorer last season – almost exclusively as a player to attack fatigued defenders in the second half of league matches. Throw in super sub Ángel Correa and potentially Samuel Lino (one of their most important players last term), and you have a potent mix of weapons to impact the game with.
Even if the home side’s makeshift defence can make it to the latter part of the game in good health, their job won’t be done until they’ve seen out that second wave from Atlético’s bench.
Real Madrid’s opponents are blessed with substitute options – and Simeone knows how to use them.
Can Kylian Mbappé Override Diego Simeone’s Best-Laid Plans?
The bad part about coaching the world’s most talented attacking core is that it’s hard to put them all on the pitch together and still be a balanced football team. The good part is that, a lot of the time, you can suffer the consequences of not being a balanced team and still win anyway.
Saturday’s game figures to be one of those nights that can display why you sign Mbappé, for a team who were already league and European champions. On his day, the Frenchman is football’s ultimate gamebreaker, and deciphering opponents of the steel and organisation of Atlético is precisely what he’s here to do.
Interestingly, this will be the first time he’s ever come up against Diego Simeone, who is one of the eminent defensive coaches of the modern era.
Of course, this isn’t merely a game of Mbappé versus Atlético. The home side could quite feasibly get game-winning displays from any of their other star attackers. However, after a challenging first three months in Spain, Mbappé is now firmly on the other side of his adaptation and looks like the X-Factor to Real Madrid’s ails. He has averaged a goal every 89 minutes in La Liga since the start of December, compared to one every 146 minutes beforehand.
It’s not just been an increase in goals, either. Against deep defensive blocks where space is at a premium – theoretically his most challenging terrain – Mbappé has consistently been creating space for himself where there was none. Whether it’s a sharp one-two, a dummy run at lightning speed, or simply driving defenders towards their own goal and figuring things out on the way, his trademark unstoppable moments have been much more visible in 2025.
With that said, Simeone’s idea of halting Mbappé will be nothing other than taking away as much space as possible, making him earn any he can find. Of all the ways that Atlético might possibly lose, they will not allow it to happen by opening runways for Mbappé and co., or leaving themselves vulnerable in transition. And especially with Robin Le Normand unavailable, Atlético will be more conscious of limiting space between their defensive line and Jan Oblak.
Although much has been made of Atlético’s return to a more recognisable 4-4-2 system this season, it doesn’t quite tell the full story.
In this particularly selfless version, Simeone’s side often end up defending their own half with up to six players across the back, with wide players Giuliano Simeone and Conor Gallagher dropping in as supreme defensive helpers on the wings. In turn, one of their front two (Griezmann or Álvarez) can drop in and help to recoup the extra midfielder without a problem.
Atlético are content to sit tight in their own half and protect themselves across every lane of the pitch with numbers. Then, when the ball moves to one side, the team collapse across and look to shut down opportunities for their opponents to play through, with support of the midfielders.
The opportunities for Mbappé to go round Atlético are likely to be slim. It’ll be similarly difficult for him to find specific one-v-one match-ups, or to isolate a defender coming from his preferred left side. But with the way he’s been playing of late – and particularly against teams defending deep – he’s shown he can still attack effectively through crowded central areas. Coaxing defenders to jump out of the backline towards him, before darting into the resulting space following sharp combination play has been his trademark of late.
Back in November, Simeone was overheard in a training session telling his players: “We sit deep to win, not to defend.” Even if Ancelotti opts against fielding all of his attacking stars, that idea is going to be tested to the limit by Mbappé and whoever’s running with him on Saturday.
Does Simeone Stick or Twist?
Simeone arrives into this game in unfamiliar territory. For maybe the the first time as the manager of Atlético Madrid, there’s talk that his side are favourites in the derby.
But Simeone doesn’t want to entertain such talk.
“We arrive to the game like always,” was his response when asked about the topic. “We’ll arrive on the bus.”
His flippant response tells you all you need to know about what he thinks about the topic. The Argentine has only won three times in 12 games away from home against Real Madrid. Two of those wins have come with Ancelotti on the opposition’s bench, but still, it’s no easy task.
A win for Atlético would propel them above Real Madrid in the league table with 15 games to play. The title would be in Atlético’s hands albeit with a fair stretch of road remaining.
Ancelotti’s side have already dropped points in seven games this season (four draws, three defeats) and have another Clásico to play before the end of the season.
Will Simeone be happy to cede some ground in this battle in order to win the war?
Simeone would tell you he’s only thinking as far as the next game, but the later it gets into the season with his side in the reckoning, he’ll fancy his chances to stay the course against Real Madrid and Barcelona sides who have been inconsistent at best this season and outright pushovers at worst.
They have a marginally easier schedule according to Opta’s Power Rankings. If they can stay in the fight, there’s a good chance Real Madrid and Barcelona trip themselves up on the run-in.
The big question for Simeone is whether to play Gallagher in place of Samuel Lino in left midfield. That choice will be a good indicator of how attacking Simeone wants to be.
Atlético recently went through a rough patch domestically, drawing with Villarreal and losing to Leganés. There was, of course, the battling win over Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions between those two games to maintain spirits, but the wobble in La Liga didn’t go unnoticed.
Since those two results, Simeone has gone for Lino as his left midfielder – the Brazilian offers much more attacking threat than Gallagher. That might be a risk Simeone is willing to take against Mallorca and Getafe at home, but Real Madrid at the Bernabéu is a different proposition entirely.
Lino, while not a defensive liability, does not offer the same levels of certainty as Gallagher. He wins fewer duels and makes fewer defensive actions per 90 than the Englishman.
As we’ve mentioned previously, perhaps it doesn’t really matter how the games starts. The real question is how Ancelotti’s side deal with Simeone’s substitutions. We have never seen a Simeone-coached Atlético Madrid side with as much depth on the bench.
Can Atlético’s Centre Hold?
Atlético fans will be asking the exact same question of their team as Real Madrid fans will be asking of theirs. Simeone has evolved as a manager but he knows that “at the end of the season, the teams who concede the fewest goals are the ones who are fighting for important trophies.”
Part of Atlético’s supreme defensive record this season has been down to the signing of Robin Le Normand, but Clément Lenglet has also helped as one of the best under-the-radar free signings of last summer.
Atlético will be without Le Normand for the game after he picked up a yellow card against Mallorca last weekend. That means José Giménez and Lenglet could be partnered by Axel Witsel in their back three. Without Le Normand in nine games this season, Atlético have conceded 0.9 goals per game. That almost halves to 0.5 with the Spain international on the field.
This is made even worse by the news that Pablo Barrios – who missed the game against Getafe in the Copa – might not make it in time for the short bus journey to the Bernabéu. Koke is 33 and won’t be able to play the full 90 minutes in a game that could be played with a lot of transitions. That’s two central positions with serious doubts over them.
There were reports that Atlético might try to sign a new defensive midfielder before the end of the January transfer market but that never transpired. Those rumours hint at a lack of confidence with their current options there.
Whether Madrid start with Mbappé, Vinícius, Bellingham and Rodrygo is a question for Don Carlo, but Simeone will have to prepare for his worst-case scenario.
Does Simeone go with Barrios, if he makes it in time, flanked by Gallagher and De Paul? And how can the defense hold up without Le Normand?
What Kind of Game Does Simeone Want to Play?
Real Madrid played Leganés with a back four that consisted of 20-year-old Jacobo Ramón, 21-year-old Asencio and midfielder Fede Valverde at right-back because of a deepening injury crisis.
You could easily confuse their injury list with a longlist of Ballon d’Or hopefuls. Carvajal, Militão, Rüdiger, David Alaba and Eduardo Camavinga are all out.
The defence Ancelotti picks for the derby will be slightly more experienced than the one against Leganés, but it will likely contain one misfit. But regardless of the ingredients chosen, Madrid have shown a soft underbelly all season and can’t control games as they might like. They gave up a two-goal lead against Leganés before academy graduate Gonzalo García bailed them out with an injury-time winner.
They also have one day less rest than Atlético, who were out in Copa del Rey action in midweek too. Couple that with a mouth-watering tie against Manchester City coming up on Tuesday and you could excuse Madrid for being slightly less focused than normal.
Does Simeone pounce on this and try to push the tempo a little bit on his Madrid rivals? We probably know the answer to that, but it’s surely something he’s considering. His side just put five past Getafe in the Copa del Rey and have the pieces now to press Real Madrid. It might turn out that attack is the best form of defence for Atlético.
Atlético rank 11th in the league for high turnovers (155); they don’t always go hard to win the ball back but when they do, they can be effective.
Does Simeone use Atlético’s momentum heading into the game and his new bounty of high-energy attackers to test Madrid’s pulse?
It would be a massive surprise to see them do it against Real Madrid, but with a makeshift backline and no Toni Kroos on the field to control the game, there will be no better time for Simeone to try something different in a game of such magnitude.
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