Manchester City will need to come from behind against Real Madrid if they are to stay in the UEFA Champions League. We look ahead this second leg with our Real Madrid vs Man City prediction and preview.
Real Madrid vs Man City Stats: The Key Insights
- Real Madrid, who lead 3-2 after the first leg, are the favourites to win again on Wednesday, with the Opta supercomputer ranking their chances at 48%.
- Erling Haaland could become both the youngest and fastest player to score 50 Champions League goals.
- Madrid have lost just one of their six Champions League home games against Man City.
It is a sight we have become accustomed to this season: Manchester City throwing away a lead and capitulating to a dramatic defeat.
Their latest such collapse came last week, when Real Madrid battled back from 2-1 down after 80 minutes to win 3-2 at the Etihad Stadium.
Brahim Díaz, a former City player, and Jude Bellingham got the late goals, cancelling out Erling Haaland’s double, with the striker’s efforts having come either side of a Kylian Mbappé equaliser.
It was the first time City had lost a Champions League game in which they led at half-time since April 2018 (2-1 vs Liverpool), having been unbeaten in 32 games beforehand (W29 D3).
It was the third time, though, City had lost a Champions League match in which they had led twice. All three such instances have come against Madrid.
Man City’s chances of turning things around at the Santiago Bernabéu will likely require a strong defensive effort. However, they have conceded 57 goals in 39 games in all competitions this season, three more than they did in 59 games last term. Only in 2016-17 (60) have they conceded more in a campaign under Pep Guardiola.
They have also failed to win any of their last four Champions League games in which they have scored first, with all those coming this season.
Guardiola will hope Saturday’s 4-0 hammering of Newcastle United in the Premier League – with Omar Marmoush scoring his first three goals for the club – will prove the start of a recovery process, but facing Madrid at the Bernabéu is a different matter altogether.
City have lost nine of their 27 Champions League meetings with Spanish opponents, almost twice as many defeats than against sides from any other nation (five vs French and German teams). Indeed, their nine losses vs Spanish teams account for 28% of their overall defeats in the competition (9/32).
They have lost each of their last three away games in the competition. Only once previously have they last four in a row in the competition (under Roberto Mancini between 2011 and 2012), while this is already Guardiola’s longest losing streak away from home in the Champions League.
Having lost last week, the omens are not great for the Premier League side. Last Tuesday was the fifth time City have lost the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie, and they have gone on to be eliminated on each of the previous four occasions.
Madrid, meanwhile, will fancy their chances of adding to their goals. They have only failed to score in one of their last 78 Champions League home games (207 goals scored), doing so in a 3-0 loss to CSKA Moscow in December 2018.
Last week’s hero for Los Blancos, Bellingham, was involved in controversy over the weekend as he was sent off in La Liga for something he said to the referee, sparking fury from Madrid. Bellingham has scored more Champions League goals against Man City than he has versus any other opponent (three). It is also the joint-highest number of goals an English player has scored against an English opponent in the competition (Frank Lampard, also three vs Liverpool).
City, though, have a history-hunting striker in the form of Haaland. The 24-year-old has scored 49 goals in 48 Champions League games, with his brace in the first leg his first strikes against Madrid. A goal here would see him become the fastest to 50 goals in terms of both appearances and age (24 years 213 days). The Norwegian did come off against Newcastle with a knee issue, though, so may be a doubt for this one.
Real Madrid vs Man City Head-to-Head
Real Madrid’s win last week was the 40th time they have won the first leg of a European knockout stage tie away from home – they have progressed from 37 of the previous 39, failing only against Odense Boldklub (1994-95 UEFA Cup) and Ajax (2018-19 Champions League).
Madrid have lost just one of their six Champions League home games against City (W3 D2), going down 2-1 in the round of 16 in 2019-20.
This will mark the 10th Champions League meeting between Carlo Ancelotti and Guardiola.
They will be the first managers to face each other on 10 occasions in the competition, eight of which have come while in charge of their current clubs. Ancelotti has won four of the nine meetings so far (D3 L2), while he has never lost at home to Guardiola in the competition (W2 D2).
Madrid and City drew 3-3 in Spain and 1-1 in England in their quarter-final meeting last season, with Los Blancos winning on penalties at the Etihad.
Real Madrid vs Man City Prediction
The Opta supercomputer ran 10,000 data-led pre-match simulations, and Real Madrid were the victors inside 90 minutes in 48% of those. That would, of course, see the Spanish giants go through, as would a draw, which occurs 22.7% of the time. Madrid advance to the last 16 in 78.4% of sims.
Man City will need to win on the night, and have a 29.3% chance of doing so. However, a one-goal victory would mean extra-time and penalties. City have a 21.6% likelihood of knocking the reigning champions out.
Real Madrid vs Man City Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Real Madrid vs Man City Squads
Manchester City: Stefan Ortega, Ederson, Scott Carson, Ruben Dias, John Stones, Nathan Ake, Josko Gvardiol, Manuel Akanji, Abdukodir Khusanov, Mateo Kovacic, Nico González, Jack Grealish, Jeremy Doku, Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gündogan, Bernardo Silva, Savinho, Matheus Nunes, Phil Foden, James McAtee, Erling Haaland, Omar Marmoush.
Head Coach: Pep Guardiola
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Andriy Lunin, Sergio Mestre, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, David Alaba, Jesús Vallejo, Fran García, Antonio Rüdiger, Ferland Mendy, Lorenzo Aguado, Jude Bellingham, Eduardo Camavinga, Federico Valverde, Luka Modric, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Arda Güler, Lucas Vázquez, Dani Ceballos, Brahim Díaz, Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé, Rodrygo, Endrick.
Head Coach: Carlo Ancelotti
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