The greatest show in rugby kicks off this weekend and, as ever, debate is already raging over who will be fighting it out for the Six Nations title come the final weekend. Mail Sport put our expert panel to the test… but did former Scotland captains ANDY NICOL and JASON WHITE, or our Deputy Chief Sports Writer CALUM CROWE predict Scotland will finally break their duck? Or are Gregor Townsend’s injury problems just too severe to mount a challenge?
What do you expect from Scotland and what will success look like?
Andy Nicol: I was feeling very confident about two weeks ago that Scotland could do something special in this Six Nations.
Then Sione Tuipulotu and Scott Cummings got injured. Both are so critical to Scotland’s improvement over the last year or so. It was devastating news and might mean Scotland’s chances of real success is limited now.
For me, success would be going into the final weekend against France in the hunt for the championship. This has got tougher with the injuries to these key players.
Jason White: We need to see the evolution and improvement of the team that translates to being in a position to challenge for the title in the last round of fixtures.
Success is winning our three homes games and then at least one of the two away games.
The loss of Sione Tuipulotu has been a huge blow to Scotland ahead of the Six Nations
Gregor Townsend still has some reasons for cheer with a talented back division to call on
We have to find a way to navigate through without Sione especially over the first two games and get some momentum going. I would also regard our largest representation on the Lions tour as the result of a successful tournament.
Every pundit has pre-selected all of our backs possibly with the exception of our scrum-halves, so there is a clear target there alongside a number of our forward pack.
Calum Crowe: Joe Schmidt made a really interesting comment about Scotland back in the autumn.
After his Australia side had just been beaten 27-13, Schmidt said that he felt Scotland are now in a ‘sweetspot’ in terms of their squad profile and their ability to challenge for silverware.
Schmidt, of course, knows a thing or two about how to win a Grand Slam. Scotland are rich with attacking talent, they have key players at a good age, they have good experience. It’s all there for them.
They also have three home games. If not now, then when? We’ve never been in a position to challenge for the Six Nations title heading into the final round of fixtures.
If we can still be in the hunt heading to Paris on the final weekend, that would be a solid championship. Anything less would feel underwhelming.
Who is most likely to replace Tuipulotu and is there any chance he still makes the Lions tour in the summer?
AN: It’s not just that we are losing our inside centre. We are losing our captain who has led the team so well.
We are losing the player that has linked so well with Finn Russell in both attack and defence and someone who has a telepathic relationship with Huw Jones. Sione was the heartbeat of the side and the hole he leaves is a big one.
Stafford McDowall appears to the front-runner to replace Tuipulotu at centre against Italy
I think Stafford McDowall with get the 12 shirt on Saturday but I would not be surprised if Tom Jordan gets some game time at 12 over the coming weeks as well.
I guess the Lions is all about how the op goes and what his rehab is like. Before his injury, every pundit from every nation had Sione nailed on as the Test inside centre, so he has money in the bank if he makes a recovery in time.
JW: McDowall is in the driving seat and I expect him to get the nod for the Italy game.
I would not bet against Gregor Townsend changing selection as the tournament progresses and the likes of Tom Jordan and Rory Hutchinson will be in with a shout.
As for Sione, the timing could not have been worse as he has been in such a rich vein of form and taking to the captaincy role so well. He has been pivotal to Glasgow and Scotland improving.
I believe he still has a strong chance of making the Lions tour but getting some rugby before the tour leaves will be key. The form of the other centres will also play a part.
If Robbie Henshaw, Bundee Aki and Ollie Lawrence find some form at 12, it may be the case that Farrell goes with them. I hope not though!
CC: It’s an absolute hammer blow. Not just in terms of what Tuipulotu offers himself as a player and a captain, but also knock-on effects that are more difficult to quantify.
The likes of Tom Jordan could also be in with a shout to step up and replace the void Tuipulotu leaves in the squad
Over these past few years, he has built an outstanding relationship with Finn Russell. Huw Jones was also back to his very best, aided by the fact he was playing alongside Tuipulotu for club and country.
I suspect McDowall will be the replacement. He’s a big unit and he’s solid defensively. Townsend won’t go with a lightweight midfield, which I think rules out any chance of Tom Jordan playing at centre.
As for the Lions, Sione is now at the mercy of others. If other players have a good championship, they will move ahead of him.
What should we expect from Ireland? Will the fact that Andy Farrell isn’t in charge make a difference?
CC: Nobody expects the green machine to suddenly fall to pieces, but I do get the sense that Ireland could be vulnerable this year.
They weren’t particularly impressive during the autumn. They made a lot of mistakes, a lot of unforced errors which we would never have previously associated with this team.
Especially the defeat to the All Blacks, that was a really error-strewn performance.
The fact Farrell isn’t in charge of the team has to make a difference. Otherwise, what’s the point of having a head coach in the first place?
Even if it’s only a five per cent drop-off, that could make the difference between winning and losing tight games.
Andy Farrell’s absence in the Ireland camp to take charge of the Lions will be hugely significant
AN: Ireland were good but not great in the autumn, beating Australia but losing at home against New Zealand for the first time in eight years.
They are still stacked with talent and made up primarily of Leinster players, who are enjoying a great season.
Farrell not being there could be a factor but Simon Easterby is a great coach and has total respect in the camp. But he is not Farrell, who has been inspirational in the way he communicates so there might be a slight drop-off in performance.
JW: They will look to follow the established pattern of the Farrell tenure. Leinster are the driving force and continue to be the form club team alongside Toulouse, giving Easterby a group in form.
I do, however, believe now is the time to break our losing run. Round two at Murrayfield is a must-win game for us.
Scotland are enjoying their most dominant run of form against England in a generation. Will that continue this year?
CC: I don’t see any reason why it shouldn’t.
England were awful defensively in the autumn. If Finn Russell and Duhan van der Merwe click into gear, they could absolutely terrorise England and tear them apart. They’ve done it before.
The only thing that could trip Scotland up is a sense of complacency or a feeling that the run must come to an end at some point.
According to our panel, Scotland should be confident of retaining the Calcutta Cup
It’s probably an inherently Scottish trait that we sometimes feel that way. But the reality is that Scotland are a better team with better players.
They should beat England.
AN: This is a tough one. I think England are on the brink of being very good but they are still not quite there.
They only won five out of 12 games in 2024 and four of those were against Japan, Italy and Wales. But they did beat Ireland.
Their attack has improved but their defence was very poor in the autumn, shipping over 40 points against Australia.
If England’s defence doesn’t improve, then Scotland will be supremely confident of continuing the winning streak against them.
One key factor is that there is no fear factor at Twickenham anymore. I’m going for a Scotland win!
JW: A huge bonus for us is Finn Russell playing at Bath and his knowledge of the players.
Finn Russell’s bond with his Bath team-mates should prove a boost for Twickenham’s visitors
Twickenham holds no fear for this Scotland squad. They know what it feels like to win there.
I am honestly not sure what they will do this year, the biggest issue I see for England is nailing their defensive systems with a new coach who has had very limited time.
They also have a new captain in Maro Itoje which could be the catalyst they need to spark their group.
Scotland to win a high-scoring game and Finn Russell to be man of the match.
What players will be a surprise package?
CC: Not so much a surprise package, but someone who I expect will elevate himself on to a new level and announce himself firmly as one of the best wingers in world rugby: France’s Louis Bielle-Biarrey.
Still only 21 years old, he’s been in absolutely sensational form for Bordeaux. All in all, he has 16 tries in 16 games for club and country this season.
Given the way I expect the tournament to pan out for France, I expect King Louis to finish as the top try scorer.
AN: Sam Prendergast is hardly under the radar as he will start for Ireland and has been playing well for Leinster, but he is young and inexperienced.
France’s Louis Bielle-Biarrey (centre) could terrorise defences during this year’s tournament
If Ireland’s forwards play to their best and give him a great platform, I think we could see something special from the young lad.
Farrell has eulogised about him and that is good enough for me. There are a few young French players who are knocking on the door but might not get a chance with the strength of their squad.
Scotland’s squad is quite settled so I don’t expect any bolters from us.
JW: Jordan was the surprise package for Scotland in the autumn and is set to light up the Six Nations if he manages to get time on the pitch, which may or may not happen at 12 or through injuries to the established playing group.
Tom Willis of England has been in fine form for Saracens in the back row which is always an area of strength across all countries.
Who will win it all – and why?
JW: France would have been my favourites, but they have really hard games away from home against in Ireland, England and Italy which may rule them out.
Their squad depth is superior to everyone bar Ireland who are on a par. Ireland will fancy it if they can see off England on the opening weekend and then Scotland in round two.
Looking at it like that, it feels like any team could win the championship if they can generate momentum with the two victories in the first rounds.
Holders Ireland and France appear to be the favourites again to lift the Six Nations trophy
Scotland have a shout if we can go two from two and stay injury-free.
CC: The fixtures aren’t kind to France this year, with away games in Dublin and at Twickenham. But I honestly don’t think it matters. I expect they will simply just have too much firepower.
Look at their club teams in the Champions Cup – Toulouse and Bordeaux are absolutely blowing teams away. France also have the best player on the planet in Antoine Dupont, back after his absence in last year’s championship.
Their squad depth is off the charts in pretty much every position and I expect they’ll simply be too good this year.
AN: I am going with France just because of the form of their top players who play for either Toulouse or Bordeaux.
They do have to go to Ireland and Twickenham which means if they do win, they will have to do it the hard way! If not France, then Ireland.
The Six Nations celebrates its 25th anniversary this year. What’s your best memory from the past 25 years, your favourite try and favourite player from that period?
JW: I have really enjoyed watching Scotland playing England in recent years and their victories at Twickenham have been exceptional.
The real breakthrough from Finn was the amazing second-half comeback in the 38-38 draw. It is hard to pick out one try. If I have to, Duhan’s wonder try when he scored from the kick return a couple of years ago.
Andy Nicol says winning the Calcutta Cup in 2000 remains his best Six Nations memory
Frustratingly, we have not had a title to celebrate in the 25 years of the Six Nations. Maybe this could be our year…
CC: If you’d asked me this a couple of years ago, I’d have had no problems rhyming off about half a dozen of Stuart Hogg’s best tries.
His try against Ireland in Dublin in 2016 was a personal favourite, as he burst through from inside his own half and beat about six Ireland defenders.
Purely in rugby terms, Hogg is Scotland’s greatest player of the Six Nations era. But, given the way his personal life has unravelled over the past year or so, he has become toxic and won’t be part of any 25th anniversary celebrations.
My favourite memory would be Scotland’s win over England at Murrayfield in 2018, a game which saw that pass from Russell.
Favourite player would be Russell, although I also had a penchant for Serge Betsen back in the day when I used to play club rugby. The Grim Reaper was not to be messed with!
AN: Can I be very selfish and say the Calcutta Cup win in the first year of the Six Nations in 2000?
We had lost all 4 games prior to this match and had not beaten England in 10 years, so it was a very special day.
There have been some special tries in that time but none better, individually, than Van der Merwe against England at Twickenham two years ago. A stunning individual try.
The best player in the 25 years is playing now – and that is Dupont. Simple!
