Scotland have never finished higher than third in the Six Nations. Can this be the year they finally break into the top two? Find out in our data-powered Scotland Six Nations preview.
Last year’s Six Nations campaign was a mixed bag for Scotland. All five of their games were decided by single-figure scores, something that had happened just twice previously in an edition of the Championship before 2024 (Scotland in 2010, Ireland in 2013; England also managed this in 2024). Yet Scotland won just two of them.
With that in mind, it is possible to look at Scotland as either being in touching distance of being able to win a Six Nations, or closer to finishing with the Wooden Spoon, depending on whether your glass is half full or half empty.
Finishing fourth for the fourth time in five years, Scotland have yet to crack the top two, but their attacking and defensive capabilities make them serious contenders in 2025.
Playing Style
Many fans associate Scotland with expansive rugby and getting the ball to their dynamic outside backs. However, in 2024, they moved the ball beyond the first receiver less frequently than any other team. In fact, they kicked the ball more than anyone else, averaging 34.2 kicks per game. This suggests a tactical shift toward a more pragmatic approach, with Scotland now opting for calculated, controlled chaos rather than purely high-risk attacking play.
Despite their increased kicking, Scotland have added variety to their kicking game. When Scotland put boot to ball, there was no kick type they were overly reliant on – there was at least one team who recorded a higher ratio of chips, crossfield kicks, territorial kicks, grubbers, box kicks and up-and-unders.
This variation in kicking makes it difficult for opposition teams to get set defensively and makes Scotland unpredictable to play against.
Strengths and Weaknesses
In 2019, Scotland finished fifth in the Six Nations, with only the Azzurri recording a lower tackle success rate in the tournament. Since then, Scotland have boasted the best tackle success rate in four of the subsequent five editions, including 2024. They only failed to top the charts during that spell in 2022, with an 89% rate that still would have been enough to finish above the five other nations last year.
Scotland were also the top-ranked team when it came to kicking at goal during last year’s Six Nations, with their 96% success rate from the tee the best of any side. They missed just one of 23 attempts at goal and slotted 100% of their penalty goal attempts (11/11).
They scored 55 of a possible 57 points from those kicks, yet the average goal kicker would have been expected to score just 48 points from the same attempts.
Scotland’s overperformance of seven points – 6.53 to be precise or 0.3 points per kick – was again the best of any side.
The Scots also boasted an impressive maul last year. They were one of just two teams, alongside Italy, to retain possession from 100% of the mauls they set, while their average of 3.9 metres gained per maul was the best of any side.
However, Scotland recorded the second-lowest lineout success rate in the Championship last time out, with only Italy (83%) retaining possession from a lower percentage of lineouts than Gregor Townsend’s side (85%).
It’s no use having a strong maul if you can’t secure clean ball from your lineout, although it could be argued that Scotland employed a high risk, high reward strategy at this set-piece. They targeted the back of the lineout from almost one in four throws (24%), comfortably the highest such rate of any team.
That strategy can give the opposition more time to get up and contest the throw, but if the throw is successful it can be harder for opponents to defend the next attack.
Scotland like to keep the ball alive and they offloaded the ball out of contact more than any other team in 2024 (47 times). However, just 13% of those offloads led to a line break or try , the lowest rate of any team.
Offloading can be a real weapon, but perhaps Scotland need to utilise this skill more sparingly and avoid forcing it when it’s not on.
Star Players
Finn Russell is the lynchpin of Scotland’s attack, but his success is often shaped by the work of the forwards. The backrow, in particular, plays a pivotal role in gaining territory and winning collisions.
A player who is perhaps underrated outside of Scotland (and perhaps Australia) is Jack Dempsey. The Glasgow number 8 can certainly pack a punch in the contact area, particularly in defence.
The 30-year-old has made 119 tackles in the Six Nations for Scotland, missing just a further two for a 98% success rate. Since Italy joined the Championship in 2000, he boasts the best tackle success rate of any player to attempt 50+ tackles in the tournament, just ahead of fellow Scots, Hamish Watson and Jonny Gray.
In the tournament last year, Dempsey made 64 tackles, only five players made more. Eight of those hits were dominant, too – only England pair Maro Itoje and Ollie Chessum (9 each) could better that tally.
Dempsey is also a strong ball carrier, running for 262 metres in total in the Six Nations in 2024. That made him one of just three forwards to record 250+ carry metres, alongside fellow number 8s Ben Earl and Caelan Doris.
The loss of Sione Tuipulotu will be a big one for Scotland, with the Glasgow centre recording a 74% dominant carry rate in the Championship last year – the best of any player (min. 5 carries).
As a result, Gregor Townsend will be hoping the rest of his backs can get his side over the gainline. Two men who could do just that are flying wingers Duhan van der Merwe and Darcy Graham, with the pair currently fighting it out for the accolade of being Scotland’s all-time top try scorer in men’s Test rugby.
Van der Merwe leads the charge with 30 tries, but Graham’s minutes-per-try rate (one every 95 minutes) edges out his teammate’s (one every 114 minutes).
Can Scotland Win the Six Nations?
Scotland won the final ever Five Nations in 1999 but have never broken into the top two in the Six Nations. The Opta supercomputer has Scotland’s most likely finishing position as third. They’re given a 5% chance of winning the whole thing and a 2% chance of doing the Grand Slam.
Scotland Six Nations Fixtures
Round One: 31 January – 1 February
Scotland vs Italy – Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Round Two: 8-9 February
Scotland vs Ireland – Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Round Three: 22-23 February
England vs Scotland – Twickenham, London
Round Four: 8-9 March
Scotland vs Wales – Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Round Five: 15 March
France vs Scotland – Stade de France, Paris
Scotland Six Nations Squad
Forwards: Ewan Ashman, Jamie Bhatti, Gregor Brown, Dave Cherry, Luke Crosbie, Rory Darge, Jack Dempsey, Matt Fagerson, Zander Fagerson, Euan Ferrie, Grant Gilchrist, Jonny Gray, Patrick Harrison, Cameron Henderson, Will Hurd, Ewan Johnson, Jack Mann, Alexander Masibaka, D’Arcy Rae, Jamie Ritchie, Pierre Schoeman, Rory Sutherland, Marshall Sykes
Backs: Fergus Burke, Matt Currie, Jamie Dobie, Darcy Graham, George Horne, Rory Hutchinson, Huw Jones, Tom Jordan, Blair Kinghorn, Stafford McDowall, Arron Reed, Kyle Rowe, Finn Russell, Ollie Smith, Duhan van der Merwe, Ben White
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