This fixture used to be a battle to avoid the Wooden Spoon, but now both teams have bigger expectations. We deliver our verdict on Saturday’s clash with our Scotland vs Italy prediction and preview.
For much of the Six Nations, Scotland vs Italy has been a fixture that essentially decided who would pick up the dreaded Wooden Spoon. But now, both sides now have much higher expectations and their outlook is far more optimistic.
Both teams come into the tournament with more positivity than ever. Scotland are now used to hitting the ground running in the Championship, having won their opening match in six of the last eight editions, compared to just one of their initial 17 such fixtures.
Italy are celebrating 25 years since joining the competition back in 2000 and they will be hoping to repeat their Round 1 success from a quarter of a century ago when they beat Scotland – who had won the Five Nations one year earlier – in their inaugural fixture.
It’s not unthinkable either, with the Azzurri unbeaten in their last three Championship fixtures, their longest run without defeat. Although Italy don’t have quite the opening-round form that Scotland have found in recent years, winning just two of their following 24 openers since that victory in 2000, they are certainly no pushovers at this stage of the competition. Last year they lost by just three points to England in Round 1 while the margin was five points against France in 2023.
Strengths
Both teams bring a fierce defensive mindset to the game. Italy led the way in sheer volume last year, making a tournament-high 982 tackles in the 2024 Six Nations.
Scotland, meanwhile, are all about quality, recording the best tackle success rate of any nation last year (89%). That defensive performance wasn’t a one-off either — Scotland have topped the charts in four of the last five editions, finishing third in the only exception (2022).
Weaknesses
The set-piece will be a key battleground for both teams this weekend. Italy struggled in 2024, recording the lowest success rate at both the scrum (83%) and lineout (83%). Scotland’s scrum was more solid (88%, the second-best rate), but their lineout wasn’t much better than Italy’s, ranking second-worst at 85%.
Italy will also need to work on their speed at the breakdown, with their average attacking ruck speed sitting at 4.66 seconds, the slowest rate of any team. The Azzurri have some electric backs but if they can’t generate quick ball they could be easily nullified.
That lack of quick ball likely contributed to Italy making the fewest line breaks in the tournament (21). Scotland didn’t fare much better, managing just one more (22). Both teams will be looking for sharper attacking execution in 2025
Fantasy Picks
If any player is going to pick up a generous tally from their defensive work alone it is Michele Lamaro. The Italian skipper made a record 103 hits in last year’s edition, which surpassed the previous best tally set by Scotland’s Jonny Gray six years earlier.
He hit his highest match tally against Scotland last year too, recording 27 tackles when the two sides met in the penultimate round in 2024. In fact, that total was the highest by any Italian player in a Six Nations fixture, surpassing the previous best of 26 by Maxime Mbanda against Wales in 2017.
For Scotland, it’s hard to look past Finn Russell as a source of points. Every fantasy team needs a reliable goalkicker and the Bath number 10 certainly ticks that box. He scored 55 of a possible 57 points from the tee last year. The average goalkicker would have been expected to land just 48 from the same attempts according to our xGK model.
Of course, it’s Russell’s creativity in open play where he really excels, and that generally guarantees a good return in fantasy rugby. He missed the majority of the 2020 campaign, but since the beginning of 2021 he’s assisted 11 tries in the Six Nations – a joint-high alongside Antoine Dupont – while only Damian Penaud (25) has made more offloads than him (23, level with Dupont).
Scotland vs Italy Prediction
Scotland are hot favourites to beat Italy on Saturday according to the Opta supercomputer, which suggests they have an 83.7% chance of winning compared to 15.4% for the Azzurri.
The prediction model forecasts a relatively comfortable win for Gregor Townsend’s side, projecting a 35-18 scoreline. Can Italy overcome the odds in Edinburgh?
Scotland vs Italy Lineups
Scotland
15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Stafford McDowall, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 1 Pierre Schoeman, 2 Dave Cherry, 3 Zander Fagerson, 4 Jonny Gray, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 6 Jamie Ritchie, 7 Rory Darge, 8 Matt Fagerson
Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Gregor Brown, 20 Jack Dempsey, 21 George Horne, 22 Tom Jordan, 23 Kyle Rowe
Italy
15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 1 Danilo Fischetti, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 3 Simone Ferrari, 4 Dino Lamb, 5 Federico Ruzza, 6 Sebastian Negri, 7 Michele Lamaro, 8 Lorenzo Cannone
Replacements: 16 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 17 Luca Rizzoli, 18 Marco Riccioni, 19 Niccolo Cannone, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Ross Vintcent, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Simone Gesi
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