Ahead of the 2025 Six Nations we make six bold predictions, putting our reputation on the line once again. We didn’t do too badly in 2024, with three of our six predictions coming true, although Duhan van der Merwe, Marcus Smith and Damian Penaud all let the side down.
Here we go, then. These are our Six Nations predictions for 2025.
1. An Irish Three-Peat
The Big One. Who is going to win the men’s Six Nations in 2025? Well, we turned to the Opta supercomputer to answer that very question. It crunched the data, simulating the tournament 10,000 times and then spat out the following data:
Ireland are strong favourites to become the first side to win the men’s Six Nations three times in a row (63% chance), while Wales are heading for back-to-back Wooden Spoons.
Although it definitely feels like any side could beat any other on their day, it also seems like there are three defined battles in this year’s Championship. Ireland and France will fight for top spot, Italy and Wales will try to dodge the lava and Scotland and England will vie for third behind the two favourites.
2. Flying Frenchmen to Fight it out for Top Try Scorer
Last year we picked Damian Penaud to finish as top try scorer, and he let us down badly, crossing for one measly try in 400 minutes of action.
“Another banker maybe, but France’s Damian Penaud has to finish as the top try scorer in the 2024 Six Nations” we said… Everyone makes mistakes, right?
This year though it is a dead cert. Penaud’s club teammate from Bordeaux-Begles, Louis Bielle-Biarrey will finish as top try scorer. The 21-year-old bonneted boy wonder has scored more tries than any other Six Nations eligible player for club and country this season.
Four of his 16 tries came in Les Bleus’ Autumn Nations Series campaign and so far he has 10 international tries in 14 caps.
If not Bielle-Biarrey then there’s always the chance Penaud might redeem himself, so don’t write him off. Six tries in his last club game for Bordeaux means he is more than familiar with the try line.
Basically, what we’re saying is that the top try scorer is going to be someone from Bordeaux…
3. Someone Will Put Their Hand Up as a Lions Bolter
Andy Farrell has stepped away as Ireland coach as he starts his preparations to lead the British & Irish Lions this summer. Surely one of his key goals through the Six Nations will be scouting players he is less familiar with from outside the Irish set up.
The fable of Lions bolter is part of the tradition that goes alongside the mystery of the Lions and half the fun is plucking out names we think have a chance. Names like Will Greenwood, John Bentley, Keith Earls, Jason Robinson, Martin Johnson and most recently Marcus Smith all feature in the archives for players that burst onto the international scene via the Lions.
Picking this year’s potential candidates is as hard as ever. Reading Farrell’s mind is not easy, especially as he has traditionally favoured an experienced and reliable squad when overseeing Ireland.
Initially we omitted Henry Pollock from this list but his late call up means the England starlet could still get a chance to shine. However, we’re going to hedge our bets and go with this list, including one player from each of the four nations (well, sort of):
Cormac Izuchukwu (Ireland), A Trialist (Wales), Asher Opoku-Fordjour (England), Tom Jordan (Scotland).
4. There Will Be No Grand Slam in 2025
Thirteen of the previous 25 editions of the men’s Six Nations have seen a side claim a Grand Slam. That means it hasn’t happened 12 times (obviously). Now, the Opta supercomputer suggests there is a 48% chance of the Slam happening in 2025, but we’re going to go one step further and say it is definitely not going to happen.
Ireland have the best chance by far, but there are banana skins along the way, not least in round one when England visit – a team that has been all but ruled out, but very nearly beat all of Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa and Australia last year.
France are the only other serious option to achieve a Grand Slam, but can they improve their consistency? Their one title since 2010 came in 2022, when they did manage the clean sweep however.
Scotland haven’t done the Slam since 1990 when there were just five nations involved, while England have managed it just once since their 2003 World Cup winning season, back in Eddie Jones’ first campaign in charge in 2016.
Warren Gatland is a Grand Slam machine, but nothing could seem more far fetched in 2025. Even Italy have a better chance of it according to our supercomputer.
5. 500 Metres to Be Broken
Since Dupont’s law was axed after the 2024 Six Nations, the freedom for full-backs to run from deep has returned.
Mike Brown tallied 543 metres gained in the 2014 Six Nations; since then no other player has broken that notional target of 500m across a campaign.
Indeed, in a confused 2024, James Lowe led the rankings with a meagre 375 metres gained, the lowest tally since Lee Byrne scraped together 372 metres in 2010.
Our prediction is that normal business will resume. To put our neck on the line even more, we reckon it will be Freddie Steward who leads the charge, both literally and figuratively.
Against a Bordeaux side laden with French stars last December, Steward gained a record 304 metres in one Champions Cup match for Leicester Tigers. Since then he has averaged a slightly more realistic 79 metres gained per match across five appearances, but one blitz of a game like that alongside that steady average and he will smash the 500m mark.
Other players to have a punt on achieving it include Antoine Dupont who averages 82m per 80 minutes this season for Toulouse in all competitions, Monty Ioane (73m) or Darcy Graham (66m).
The player that topped the charts in the inaugural edition of the Six Nations was Emile Ntamack (486) and remarkably his son Theo, who was born two years later in 2002 ranks sixth in Europe for this ranking (80.3), just behind Dupont. Brother Romain is way down the list at 20.4m in case you were wondering.
6. Expect Tight Games
The 2024 Six Nations was statistically the most competitive edition of the championship since Italy joined in 2000. Ten of the 15 matches were decided by margins of four points or fewer. Never before had more than six matches (2021) been settled by such a close scoreline.
Overall, the average winning margin was just 8.9 points last year, the only time it has dipped into single digits. The last mini-era when the games were so close was 2010-2013, when the average was 10.9 over four campaigns and never higher than 11.3. Back then though, it was also linked to low scoring games, with matches averaging just three tries per game. Last year was tight but also saw an average of 5.3 tries scored per game, making it close and entertaining.
Italy have definitely reached a level now where they have the belief that they can beat anyone. They are no longer the whipping boys they once were.
The one risk in this prediction is how will Wales cope? Their beleaguered form is compounded by a number of injuries and a few heavy defeats could put this prediction to bed.
That said, we’re backing them to regain some form and find their fighting spirit, if not for Warren Gatland then for OptaJonny.
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