Even though he’s having arguably the best season of an already Hall of Fame-worthy career, Lamar Jackson isn’t considered the leader in the NFL MVP race. A big performance against his greatest nemesis could help close the gap on front-runner Josh Allen.
It’s been a holiday season tradition in Baltimore, though anything but a joyous occasion for the hometown Ravens.
The Ravens have hosted the Pittsburgh Steelers in a late-season meeting in each of the past three years, with their bitter rivals leaving M&T Bank Stadium with a victory each time. Those results are part of a remarkable run of dominance by Pittsburgh in the series, as the Steelers have won eight of nine matchups between the AFC North powers since 2020.
Granted, the Ravens didn’t have Lamar Jackson for any of those three January home defeats, or two other times the teams have faced one another over the past five seasons due to either injury or rest for an upcoming playoff game. He has taken part in four of those aforementioned nine games, all Baltimore losses to the one opponent that’s continually cast a spell upon one of the NFL’s greatest on-field magicians.
The Steelers have indeed been the kryptonite to the Ravens’ Superman, or in football terms, the Michigan to Jackson’s inner Ryan Day. The superstar quarterback hasn’t posted a passer rating above 80.1 in any of his five career battles with Pittsburgh, has barely completed above 50% of his attempts in those games, and has turned the ball over a whopping 11 times.
That includes a three-interception performance in Jackson’s lone win in the rivalry, which came in his first start against the Steelers during his first NFL MVP season of 2019.
The Ravens are going to need Jackson to produce numbers more akin to Josh Allen than Jameis Winston when the Steelers once again invade Baltimore this Saturday for a pre-Christmas clash in which the stakes couldn’t be any higher for an NFL Week 16 game. Pittsburgh winning this game means an AFC North title for Mike Tomlin and Co., while a loss puts the Ravens squarely into play to take the division with the Steelers drawing the challenging assignment of facing the 13-1 Kansas City Chiefs a mere four days after this game.
Pittsburgh will be hoping for more of the same after extending its hex on the Ravens with an 18-16 home win in Week 11, a victory the Steelers sealed by thwarting a 2-point conversion attempt with just over a minute left. There’s ample reason to believe the outcome may be different in the rematch, however, something the wagering community (Baltimore is a 6.5-point favorite as of Thursday) and our projection model (which gives the Ravens a 70.6% win probability) both agree on.
The Steelers prevailed by flummoxing Jackson into another off day, primarily by smothering his targets while applying consistent pressure – a constant theme for Pittsburgh in the recent series history. Baltimore receivers combined for a season-low 66.7% open rate that day (the Ravens rank second in the NFL in that category for the season at 83.4%), an underlying factor in Jackson’s subpar 48.5 completion percentage for the game.
That puzzling performance is a clear outlier, however, in a spectacular season that could be argued is the best of Jackson’s already incredibly accomplished career. He’s on pace for a career high in passing yards and has 34 touchdown passes with only three interceptions. It’s one that’s certainly put him in the conversation for a third career NFL MVP award and second in as many years, even if the public seems to have its mind made up on Allen being the guy.
Should that turn out to be the case, that would put Jackson as the sole member of an exclusive group should he maintain his level of play through the stretch run. He’s currently on pace to be just the fourth quarterback in NFL history with a passer rating of 120 or above and at least 400 passing attempts.
The other three – Aaron Rodgers in 2011, Rodgers again in 2020 and Peyton Manning in 2004 – all won MVPs. The two who would rank fifth and sixth for the best rating in a season should Jackson’s current mark of 120.7 stand – Tom Brady in 2007 and Matt Ryan in 2016 – received the honor as well.
And while the narrative still exists that Jackson – and now John Harbaugh, to an extent – can’t beat the Steelers, the reality is this series hasn’t been remotely as lopsided as the recent win/loss records suggest.
Baltimore’s four losses to Pittsburgh with Jackson at quarterback have come by a combined 14 points with each of the defeats by seven or less, and the Ravens have certainly had their chances in all of those contests.
They missed a likely game-winning 2-point try in the final seconds of a 20-19 setback in 2021, a year after losing a fumble at the Steelers’ 6-yard line while down 28-24 with under 2 minutes left. Last month’s two-point loss in the Steel City could have been avoided if not for two missed field goals from the suddenly shaky Justin Tucker and two fumbles in Ravens’ own end that led to six Pittsburgh points.
Miscues and a lack of execution have been a maddeningly recurring trend for Baltimore during its four straight losses to Pittsburgh when Jackson starts. So has an inability to block T.J. Watt, whose utter dominance in this series could offer the best explanation for Jackson’s struggles.
Of Jackson’s 133 adjusted pass attempts (no spikes or throwaways) in his last four meetings with the Steelers, nearly half of them (61, 45.9%) have come under duress. And a large portion of those hurried throws have been caused by Watt, who has generated a startling 8.5 sacks and a superb 33.7% pressure rate in Jackson’s five career starts against Pittsburgh.
MOST CONSECUTIVE GAMES VS. ANY OPPONENT WITH 0.5+ SACKS
- 11 – T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
- 11 – Leslie O’Neal, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks
- 10 – Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
- 10 – Peter Boulware, Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- 10 – Kevin Greene, five teams vs. Atlanta Falcons
(since 1982, when sacks became an official NFL stat)
There’s evidence to suggest that the Ravens may not be facing the best version of Watt come Saturday, however, and not just because he plans to play through a sprained left ankle he sustained in the Steelers’ 27-13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last week.
Though he’s delivered his usual sack totals with 11.5 through 14 games this season, the 2021 NFL Defensive Player of Year has done so despite an 11.5% pressure rate that’s under the league average for edge rushers (17.3) and well below his typical standards.
Watt was largely held in check in last month’s meeting, recording just two pressures on 24 rushes, though that still didn’t stop the Steelers from forcing three turnovers and limiting the Ravens to a season-low 329 total yards.
Ravens Projections (as of Thursday)
- Lamar Jackson: 285.9 passing yards with 1.5 TDs and 0.8 INTs; 65.6 rushing yards with 0.3 rush TDs
- Derrick Henry: 15.4 rushes for 83.4 yards with 0.7 TDs
- Zay Flowers: 5.6 receptions for 85.0 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
- Mark Andrews: 3.4 receptions for 47.1 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
Steelers Projections
- Russell Wilson: 264.1 passing yards with 1.2 TDs and 1.0 INTs
- Najee Harris: 13.5 rushes for 66.7 yards with 0.4 TDs
- Calvin Austin III: 4.3 receptions for 75.1 yards with 0.3 touchdowns (George Pickens is out)
- Pat Freiermuth: 4.7 receptions for 55.8 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
(See all the player projections)
Turnovers have no doubt played a critical role in the Steelers’ success against Baltimore, as they’ve owned a plus-8 differential (11 takeaways, three giveaways) in Jackson’s four lifetime losses in the series. Jackson is turning the ball over at the lowest rate of his career, however, and he’ll also have what should be the added benefit of facing Pittsburgh for the first time in front of a full home crowd.
Jackson has opposed Pittsburgh just once at M&T Bank Stadium, and that came during the 2020 season and under COVID-19 restrictions that kept attendance under 5,000 fans.
Then again, Jackson has been pretty much brilliant in any venue he’s stepped in during another MVP-worthy campaign, with the notable exception being the one that resides in Western Pennsylvania.
Expect another close finish in this latest chapter of one of the NFL’s fiercest rivalries, one the Ravens seem to be in a position to dole out some long-awaited payback if they’re able to keep the mistakes that have haunted them in recent editions to a minimum.
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