As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Wild Card game against the Baltimore Ravens.
My prediction for the game is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Arthur Smith Schemes Up Zone Beaters
As we outlined earlier this week, Russell Wilson is a far better quarterback this year facing man coverage than he is facing zone. Some of that plays into his natural strengths and tendencies, but OC Arthur Smith has struggled to come up with concepts to beat zone coverage.
The way to get after Baltimore is to flood their zones, especially on early downs. They need to put the Ravens’ defense in conflict. And the Steelers’ receivers, of course, have to step up with big plays. They can’t afford more drops from WR George Pickens.
2. Run Game Gets Creative
Baltimore is the No. 1 run defense in football by a wide margin. A stifling group, and nothing comes easy. But Pittsburgh can’t win this one by relying solely on their passing game. That means finding some way to break through that brick wall. To some degree, that should involve QB Justin Fields to lean on his dynamic running ability. But it will have to go beyond that in order for the Steelers’ offense to stay on-schedule and pair their play-action calls off it to run the offense like they want to.
3. Defense Plays Gap-Sound
One reason why Baltimore ran all over Pittsburgh in Week 16 stemmed from Steelers’ error. Guys not doing their job, not being gap sound, creating lane and openings for RB Derrick Henry to go wild. That can’t happen again. So many of Pittsburgh’s problems have been of their own creation.
Minimizing Henry alone doesn’t equate to victory, but if he can be slowed and with Baltimore missing No. 1 receiver Zay Flowers, Pittsburgh will begin building a winning formula.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Their Slow Starts Continue
Mike Tomlin might not think they’re defined by starts, but their last five playoff losses have been. Pittsburgh’s been outscored in the first quarter 66-0 over that span, including falling behind 14-0 to Buffalo 15 minutes into last year’ Wild Card loss.
There’s zero evidence to believe Pittsburgh can turn the tide this year with a terrible first quarter scoring offense, while Baltimore has done just fine over the first 15. But the Steelers can’t fall behind on the road and let the Ravens’ crowd roar as Derrick Henry gets fed. If that snowball starts rolling, it’s going to be a long day.
2. Team Doesn’t Win Turnover Battle
An obvious but forgotten stat in the Steelers’ losing streak is how much Pittsburgh has struggled in the turnover battle. They’re minus-1 during the losing streak after being plus-17 during their 10-3 stretch. Not only do the Steelers need to avoid losing the turnover battle, they often need to win it to win the game.
Pittsburgh has no margin for error and can’t take points off their plate with reckless decisions and careless mistakes. And they’ll need to fall on a couple of footballs while getting red zone stops defensively to keep the score down and make this a game heading into the final 10 minutes.
3. Defense Gets Stressed By Previous Issues
Pittsburgh’s defensive communication was less problematic in the finale against the Bengals, a small but encouraging sign for the postseason. Still, the Ravens are going to test to see if Pittsburgh has really corrected those problems, especially since the Steelers seemingly have more problems on the road.
Expect Baltimore to use motion, stacks, bunches, and switch releases to see if Steelers can remain buttoned up and on the same page.
Prediction
Ravens: 27
Steelers: 17
Season Prediction Record
8-9
