Liverpool’s attack is mouthwatering, but they’ve also conceded five goals fewer than anyone else in the Premier League this season, which is another big reason for their nine-point lead.
It felt like a statement performance, and on another day, could have been quite the statement result.
Liverpool’s 2-0 victory over Manchester City on Sunday saw Arne Slot’s side regain their nine-point lead at the top of the Premier League and open up an 11-point advantage on the reigning champions.
The Reds purred at Anfield, with the 2-0 scoreline somewhat flattering their out-of-sorts visitors. Liverpool racked up 18 shots, the most City have faced in a Premier League game since they last visited Anfield in March (19). The hosts’ total of 3.6 expected goals was the second most City have allowed in a Premier League game since Pep Guardiola arrived in 2016, after Chelsea’s 4.4 xG in their 2-1 win over City in June 2020.
If you’re looking for omens, that game officially crowned Liverpool as champions that year.
On Sunday, Cody Gakpo gave the hosts the lead after a superb cross from Mohamed Salah, making the Dutchman the third Liverpool player to reach 10+ goal involvements across all competitions this season (8 goals, 2 assists), along with Salah (24) and Luis Díaz (11). No other Premier League team have more players in double figures this term.
With those three in fine form, Liverpool’s attack has been getting plenty of well-earned plaudits as Slot’s men have raced out to a healthy lead as they look to win only their second Premier League crown, and what would be a record-equalling 20th English top-flight title. They also sit top of the league phase of the UEFA Champions League with the only 100% record of all 36 teams.
However, as Alex Ferguson, the man responsible for Manchester United taking that record from Liverpool, once said: “Attack wins you games, defence wins you titles.”
While Liverpool’s attack has been impressive, their fine defensive work has arguably been just as responsible for getting them to this point.
Manchester City were largely, yet uncharacteristically, kept under control at Anfield. Their first shot attempt came in the 39th minute. It was City’s longest wait for their first shot of a Premier League match since April 2010 against Arsenal (58th minute).
That followed a theme for Liverpool this season. They have conceded just eight goals in their 13 Premier League matches, five fewer than any other team, while their 11.6 xG conceded is also the best in the league. They have faced 125 shots, the second-fewest behind only Man City (113), while only Arsenal and Nottingham Forest (0.08) have conceded lower xG shots on average than their 0.09 xG per shot.
In other words, Liverpool aren’t conceding many chances, and even the shots they do concede aren’t of particularly high quality. It follows that opponents aren’t finishing off chances against them well, either. They are conceding goals at the lowest conversion rate of all Premier League teams this season.
No team in Europe’s top five leagues have conceded fewer goals than Liverpool, though of the other three to have conceded just eight times, Atlético Madrid (15) and Juventus (14) have played more games.
Taking all competitions into account, of teams in Europe’s top five leagues to have played at least 17 games this season, no-one has conceded as few as Liverpool (12 goals), while only Bayern Munich (0.64) and Lazio (0.83) have allowed less than their 0.87 xG against per game.
They are particularly stingy at Anfield. Liverpool have conceded just four goals in 11 home games in all competitions this season and haven’t conceded more than once in any of those games. They’ve also kept clean sheets in their last four games on home turf against Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Real Madrid and Man City.
All of that would be impressive enough on its own, but is even more so when considering first-choice goalkeeper Alisson hasn’t played since the 1-0 win at Crystal Palace on 5 October, with Caoimhín Kelleher stepping in for the last six league games and three Champions League games.
The Republic of Ireland stopper has made the necessary change appear relatively seamless since taking the gloves despite standing in for arguably the best goalkeeper in the world.
Alisson had been in excellent form too, conceding just three goals in nine games in all competitions before hobbling off at Selhurst Park. With an expected goals on target (xGOT) of 5.6, the Brazilian prevented around 2.6 goals with his saves compared to the average goalkeeper.
Kelleher has conceded just six goals in his 11 games, with an xGOT of 12.2, meaning he has prevented 6.2 goals, helped by his two penalty saves against Southampton and Real Madrid, though his stop from Adam Armstrong in the first of those games still led to a goal from the rebound.
This all seems to bode well for Liverpool turning this lead into a first-place finish come May, but was Ferguson right? Do the teams with the best defensive records win titles?
In Premier League history, there have been 12 instances of the team with the outright best defensive record winning the Premier League title. In three further seasons a side with the joint-best record has gone on to be crowned champions, but there have also been 17 occasions where the team(s) conceding the fewest goals did not win the Premier League.
That therefore means, more often than not, the team with the best defensive record did not lift the trophy at the end of the season.
However, in the Premier League’s previous 32 seasons, there have only been three instances of a team conceding 40 or more goals and winning the title. Funnily enough, all three were Ferguson’s Man Utd.
Teams must therefore strike a balance, and Liverpool appear to have found it.
We’ll come to the defenders, but first we should note the contributions of Liverpool’s midfield. Just over a year after the club almost entirely rebuilt their midfield, they are reaping the rewards, especially from two individuals.
Alexis Mac Allister is more known for his calm passing and goal threat, but he has also made the fifth most tackles of midfielders in the Premier League this season (32), showing he is more than doing his part off the ball, too.
Ryan Gravenberch has been a revelation in the ‘6’ role this season, having made the most recoveries (75) and the second-most interceptions (24) of Premier League midfielders. For central midfielders in particular, Gravenberch also has the second-best duel success with 64.7% (min. five appearances).
It can be very helpful for midfielders, though, when they have one of the best centre-backs of all time behind them. Virgil van Dijk has been at his imperious best this season, leading from the back with an aura that few, if any, can match.
As the chant the fans sing about him suggests, he exudes calmness both on and off the ball. You could argue he was a little too calm when he accidentally gave the ball to Kevin De Bruyne late on at Anfield, but Kelleher saved him and you can probably forgive the 33-year-old considering his otherwise top-class performance.
He may have missed a hat-trick of headers from crosses, but at the other end Van Dijk made a game-leading three interceptions and seven clearances on Sunday, at least five more clearances than any other Liverpool player. Across the season so far, of centre-backs in the Premier League, he has the most interceptions (25) and has won the third-most aerial duels (43).
Van Dijk had enjoyed a steady partnership alongside Ibrahima Konaté to start the season, but with the Frenchman out for the next few weeks after suffering a knee injury in last week’s 2-0 win over Real Madrid in the Champions League, Slot had to turn elsewhere against City.
Konaté has the second-best aerial duel win percentage for defenders in the Premier League this season (min. 12 aerial duels contested), so it was going to be a big job for Joe Gomez when he stepped in, but he didn’t let Liverpool down.
Gomez only had one aerial duel against City, but he won it, while no-one in the game won possession more than his seven times. The 27-year-old also had the most touches of any Liverpool player, showing how much faith his teammates had in him despite him only playing as the right-sided centre-back in 7% of his gametime in the Premier League since the start of last season.
It should also be noted that Trent Alexander-Arnold appears to be a more active defender under Slot. The England international has come under frankly ludicrous levels of scrutiny for his defending in recent years, but he is tackling a lot more in 2024-25 than he did last season. Alexander-Arnold is averaging 3.3 tackles per 90 minutes in the Premier League, more than double his 1.6 in 2023-24. You might think that’s just what Slot asks of his full-backs generally, but Andy Robertson’s numbers have gone down from 1.9 tackles per 90 last season to 1.4 this.
With Salah, Gakpo, Díaz, Diogo Jota, Darwin Núñez and the lesser-spotted Federico Chiesa as options in attack, the frontline is likely to keep grabbing the headlines as long as the Premier League leaders keep winning.
But if Liverpool can stay as strong defensively as they have been to this point, the question about their points advantage might have to be about how much bigger it can get rather than if anyone can catch them.
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