Storylines to follow in the 2024-25 College Football Playoff

The biggest question before the announcement of the final College Football Playoff rankings was whether SMU (11-2) would get in despite losing the ACC Championship game. Well, the committee sided with coach Rhett Lashlee‘s Mustangs, who were ranked among the top 10 in the Dec. 3 CFP poll, went undefeated in league play and lost to Clemson on a last-season, 56-yard field goal in the title contest. SMU earned the No. 11 seed and visits No. 6 Penn State on Dec. 21. Should the upstart Mustangs lose, then the debate will rage on … 

… about whether or not Alabama, the first team left out, should have been selected to the 12-team field, instead. The Crimson Tide (9-3) were ranked among the top 12 in the final CFP poll. Notably because of its strength of schedule, but Alabama did not play in the SEC Championship game and lost at Vanderbilt and Oklahoma by 21 points. The controversy likely won’t subside any time soon, and it even has Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne ready to re-assess how he schedules football games since maybe strength of schedule wasn’t enough of a factor to get the Crimson Tide into the Playoff.

Georgia (11-2) nabbing the No. 2 seed in the CFP field wasn’t too surprising after outlasting Texas for an overtime victory in the SEC Championship game. But, just how competitive the Bulldogs will be remains to be seen as quarterback Carson Beck‘s health might be the most talked-about CFP leading up to Georgia’s quarterfinal game in Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day. Beck is a proven winner (24-3 the last two seasons), but if he can’t go due to the elbow injury suffered in the SEC title contest, which appears to be the case , then Gunner Stockton again gets the call. The redshirt sophomore has played in seven college games, but went 12-of-16 and also showed his ability to run against Texas in the league title contest. Of course, he threw a key interception that allowed the Longhorns to force overtime, but he also proved more than capable of handling the moment.

College football fans took to social media trying to compare Georgia’s quarterback plight to that of Florida State’s somewhat similar situation in 2023, and that talk won’t end. Those Seminoles entered the 2023 four-team CFP announcement 13-0, but having struggled to win 16-6 over Louisville in the ACC Championship game without injured quarterback Jordan Travis. FSU was left out of the field. Georgia, meanwhile, earned the No. 2 seed this year, as noted. The difference: If the 2023 CFP field was 12 teams, the Seminoles are in, but likely would not get a first-round bye or even a home game since Travis’ season was done. Georgia, on the other hand, beat a better team in Texas and, for the moment, the status of starter Carson Beck for the entire Playoff is uncertain. And, the committee believes the Bulldogs could be equally competitive in the CFP with backup Gunner Stockton, who proved his worth in the SEC title game.

Perhaps the least surprising moment upon announcement of the CFP field was Oregon earning the No. 1 spot. The Ducks (13-0) are the only undefeated program in FBS and averaging nearly 36 points. It was an easy choice, but there is no certainty Oregon will reach the national championship game. Potential matchups with Ohio State, which would be a rematch of that regular-season classic, a Tennessee squad that ranks in the top 10 national in both offense and defense, and Texas could await before that point. Plus, Oregon’s usually stout defense was often picked up during that 45-37 win over Penn State in the Big Ten Championship game, leaving some measure of concern. 

OK, maybe Oregon doesn’t have a truly favorable road to the national title, but it does have the most experienced player in the CFP field. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has played in 63 college football games with three different schools. He ranks second all-time with 18,423 passing yards and is three shy of breaking Case Keenum’s record of 155 career passing touchdowns. Gabriel, who has also rushed for 33 career touchdowns, is a natural leader who understands the magnitude of the situation, which could come in handy while leading the top time in the field.  

We mentioned Texas as a possible semifinal opponent of Oregon. That heartbreaking overtime loss to Georgia in the SEC title game kept the Longhorns (11-2) from earning a top-four seed in the Playoff. But, Texas did get the No. 5 and will host Clemson before possibly meeting fourth-seeded Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. There is no doubt Texas is a top-four team, and the CFP rankings back it up by putting Steve Sarkisian‘s group at No. 4 in the final poll. Not to mention, Georgia, which handed Texas its only two losses, is on the other side of the bracket. 

Penn State (11-2) gave Oregon a run for its money before falling short in the Big Ten Championship game. And, that effort, which included 37 points and 518 total yards of offense against a stout Ducks defense, impressed the CFP committee enough to give the Nittany Lions the No. 6 seed. That rates a home date versus SMU, with a possible Fiesta Bowl date against Boise State to follow and after that a potentially winnable semifinal contest versus Indiana, Notre Dame or Georgia. Within the 12-team field, Penn State should harbor the biggest collective smile. Does this potentially favorable path put more pressure on coach James Franklin to win the big games?

News flash — Arizona State is good at football this season. Under the guidance of second-year coach Kenny Dillingham, the Sun Devils (11-2) went from a 3-win 2023 campaign and preseason Big 12 afterthought to conference champions. Bulldog running back Cam Skattebo (1,568 rushing yards) is a joy to watch for a squad that’s won six in a row and just routed Iowa State 45-19 in the Big 12 title game. As the No. 4 seed, ASU got a first-round bye, and yes, it could face mighty Texas in the quarterfinals, but has outscored the last six opponents 223-115, beating three ranked teams during that stretch. If there’s one team to truly keep an eye on during the CFP, it’s the Sun Devils. 

Perhaps that seemingly improbable 16-14 home loss to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7 was the best thing that happened to the 2024 Irish (11-1). Since then, Notre Dame has won 10 straight and all but one by 14 or more points — including three ranked opponents. If it weren’t for the CFP stipulation that only conference champs can earn one of the top four seeds, Notre Dame would be in that group. Instead, the Irish are seventh, host in-state foe Indiana and could face beatable opponents in SMU, Boise State and even quarterback-questionable Georgia en route to the national championship game. 

Speaking of that Notre Dame home loss to NIU. During the contest, Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard struggled, throwing two interceptions and being sacked twice without a touchdown pass. It was a dark moment for the Duke transfer, who had many Irish fans wondering if the team could win with him under center or if it was time for change at the position after just two games. Well, Leonard quickly squashed the doubters. Since then, Leonard has completed 67.5 percent of his passes with 16 TDs and three interceptions while posting a 152.2 passer rating. 

At least for one season, Indiana proved it’s more than a basketball school. The 11-1 Hoosiers are the surprise of the 2024 season and look to keep the magical ride rolling with an upset of Notre Dame. Under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, who broke a host of transfers with him from James Madison, IU is a fun team to watch. Behind veteran quarterback Kurtis Rourke, Indiana ranks second overall in scoring (43.3 points per game) and sixth in scoring defense (14.7 ppg). This is a feel-good story that should continue to capture the college football world.

In just about any other year, an Indiana-Notre Dame football matchup would likely be relegated to early September without much fanfare and a blowout expected. Not this year. This meeting between the schools, separated by some 200 miles at different ends of the state, might be the most intriguing first-round matchup of the lot. The programs last met in 1991, and IU’s most recent victory in the series came in 1950. As of Dec. 8, Notre Dame was a 7 1/2-point favorite, but the Hoosiers don’t care as they continue to churn and burn through the opposition. Oh yeah, the game is officially sold out, but those who really want to be there live need only shell out around $800 per ticket on the secondary market. To put that into perspective, the CFP semifinal game ticket in Texas is going for a little more than $200 at the moment.

The last time Ohio State (10-2) played a home game, its players were brawling at midfield with Michigan members after being upset by a subpar Wolverines group. The Buckeyes’ latest defeat to Michigan has cast a shadow on a campaign that seemed promising, and essentially kept them from a spot in Big Ten Championship game and top-four CFP seed. The question, now, is will Ohio State be mentally ready to take on a strong Tennessee squad at home in this enticing 8-9 seed matchup? We’ll see soon enough.

Will Howard has played relatively well during his first season as Ohio State quarterback, and his 72.3 completion percentage and 172.1 passer rating are proof. However, there’s a hefty level of concern if the versatile Howard can bounce back from his rough performance against Michigan. Yes, he received a hard hit and even left the game for a spell, but Howard’s performance was rather pedestrian before that, and he finished 19-of-33 for a season-low 175 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. Howard was emotional after the loss, but the pressure to rebound has ramped up. How he handles it all against Tennessee will be very interesting.

It’s possible Tennessee is the best team in CFP field that not many folks are talking about — by those who are paid to do so. Traveling to Ohio State for a first-round matchup is obviously a challenge, no matter the Buckeyes’ state of mind. But entering the bowl season, Tennessee ranks eighth in the country averaging 37.3 points and tied for fourth allowing 13.9 per game. Now, Ohio State is equally as potent and stingy, but when eying a first-round upset, this might be when and where it happens. 

For those who want to responsibly wager on the winner of the College Football Playoff, Oregon and Texas share the favorite tag at +360, as of Dec. 9, according to DraftKings. Georgia (+450) and Ohio State (+475) are relatively close behind. Meanwhile, when talking longshots — Arizona State is +6000 and Boise State checking in at +6500.

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff has yet to begin, and there is already clamoring for change. Notably, do away with the stipulation that each of the top-four seeds in the field needs to be a conference champion. This season, Boise State and SMU are seeded Nos. 3 and 4, respectively. But, in the final CFP rankings are ninth and 10th, respectively. Meanwhile, No. 5 Texas and No. 6 Penn State are each in the top four of said rankings. Also, No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 8 Ohio State, No. 9 Tennessee and No. 10 Indiana have arguably played tougher schedules and beaten stronger opponents than the Broncos and Mustangs, but are all playing in the first round because of the conference champion rule — and rate higher than both in the final rankings.