The Kansas City Chiefs haven’t won the most titles in Super Bowl history, but they can become the first franchise to capture three in a row. Heading into a familiar matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, there are differences to know about with both teams.
The Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles sequel on Feb. 9 to their meeting two years ago marks the fastest timeline to a Super Bowl rematch since the 1993 season, when the Dallas Cowboys defeated the Buffalo Bills for a second year in a row.
Such a quick turnaround creates the impression we’ve seen this matchup before. In some respect – right down to the Chiefs again wearing their white jerseys and the Eagles wearing their greens – we have, indeed, seen it before. Of all the possible matchups entering conference championship weekend, this was the one some of us were least enthused about seeing.
But the Chiefs and Eagles are way different teams than two years ago, when KC prevailed 38-35. Philly, in particular, has game-breaking players on both sides of the ball who weren’t present for Chiefs-Eagles Part I.
Let’s look into the teams’ evolutions leading into Super Bowl 59 in New Orleans.
The Barkley Bump
What’s been the biggest change for the Eagles offense between 2022 and ’24? The short answer: They have Saquon Barkley now. Adding a 2,000-yard running back is nice. The longer answer tells us a bit more, though: The Eagles have Saquon Barkley now, and he’s added an extra dimension to an existing strength while nicely complementing the Eagles’ other offensive stars.
The Eagles have been a run-heavy team for several years, as you’d expect of a franchise trotting out a bulldozer like Jalen Hurts at quarterback and putting him behind what’s long been regarded as the NFL’s best offensive line.
In the 2022 season, the Eagles’ 45.2% run rate ranked seventh in the NFL. Their 46.3% run success rate and the offensive line’s 45.6% run disruption rate allowed were both tops in the NFL. The funny thing about the Eagles adding an MVP candidate running back is that Barkley didn’t exactly transform anything about how the offense operates.
He escalated it, though. The Eagles of two years ago were an efficient running team but not all that explosive. Despite their best-in-class success rate, their 4.5 yards per designed run play were about league average the last time they made the Super Bowl.
During the 2024 regular season, their 4.8 yards per design run play ranked fourth, an even bigger step up from a below-average 4.1 yards in 2023, when they made the NFL playoffs but were bounced by Tampa Bay in the wild-card round.
Barkley’s home run-hitting ability explains a lot of the difference. The Eagles had 38 runs of 15+ yards, leading everyone except Baltimore (47). Barkley was responsible for 25 of those carries, tying him with the Ravens’ Derrick Henry and Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs for the league lead. Hurts had 11 of them, leading all quarterbacks except for the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson. It helps to have a dominant offensive line, but it also helps to break through the second level with explosive runners, and Philadelphia has unlocked that trait in spades.
Of course, it helps to not always face stacked defensive boxes. The presence of wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith has helped with that. The Eagles regularly face a below-average heavy box percentage despite everyone in the NFL knowing their preference to pound the rock.
A Shift in ‘Chiefs Devil Magic’
In 2022, the Chiefs undoubtedly had the best offense in the NFL, right ahead of the Eagles. They led the league in yards per play, expected points added on offense and scoring. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes was at the peak of his powers, tight end Travis Kelce gained the second-most yards of his career, then-offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy was spinning up misdirection and trickery, and nobody (including the Eagles) could stop KC.
This season’s Chiefs offense has been average. They finished the regular season 21st in yards per play, 10th in EPA, and 15th in scoring. Most people aren’t foolish enough to actually doubt Mahomes, Kelce and Reid, but the Kansas City offense has been less efficient, less explosive, and less productive than at any time in this dynastic run. Usually, that doesn’t add up to a 15-2 record, another two playoff wins and a Super Bowl appearance.
Yet here Kansas City is, largely thanks to the completion of an identity shift that began a few years ago. The Chiefs used to have the best offense and very nearly the worst defense in the NFL. Now they have a decent offense (albeit still a scary one) and a defense that has often carried most of the weight. Steve Spagnuolo’s unit doesn’t have incredible overall numbers (12th in yards per play, 15th in EPA) but managed to finish fourth in scoring because of its situational excellence.
“Chiefs Devil Magic” is a popular trope around the NFL internet these days, and it usually focuses on Mahomes’ inexplicable ability to pull wins out of his backside when all is against him. But it’s really the Chiefs defense that defies explanation.
The Chiefs finished in the top 10 of fourth-down conversion rate allowed and in red zone touchdown percentage – both hallmarks of an “opportunistic” defense that can “get off the field” in key moments. The Chiefs were narrowly in the top half of the league in the percentage of defensive drives (11.4%) that ended with a turnover. But they weren’t an especially good third-down defense, giving up conversions at a 43.3% rate, which was the sixth lowest in the league.
Yet it has certainly felt like the Chiefs defense has come through in the biggest moments. Certainly, it’s come through often enough to go a combined 17-2. Spagnuolo has some mean blitzes in his bag, like the one that beat Buffalo and quarterback Josh Allen on the decisive play of the AFC championship game.
The Chiefs don’t blitz much overall, but on third and fourth downs, their 39.4% blitz rate was sixth-highest and their 53.2% pressure rate 10th. An unpredictable coordinator coupled with great defensive linemen like Chris Jones and George Karlaftis go a long way. But the Chiefs’ overall success rate allowed on late downs (43.9%) was a few ticks worse than league average, and it’s required extra rushers to heat up opposing QBs on them.
To add insult to devil magic, teams have forgotten how to kick against the Chiefs. A 77.4% field goal make rate against them ranked fifth-lowest in the NFL, and an 85.7% rate of successful extra points was easily the lowest. The Chiefs’ key defensive personnel – Jones, Karlaftis, Nick Bolton and Trent McDuffie – were around two years ago, but other teams’ ability to stay cool against KC has apparently cratered.
Hello, Jalen Carter
Jalen Carter, the Eagles’ star defensive tackle, is the most important person in this Super Bowl who wasn’t on either roster two years ago.
Philadelphia has had a strong defensive line for years, especially in the pass rushing department. The 2022 team’s 70 sacks came up just two short of the league record. But of the four double-digit sack-getters on that team, two now play elsewhere (tackle Javon Hargrave and edge rusher Haason Reddick) and one is injured (defensive end Brandon Graham). Only Josh Sweat, who had 11 sacks that season and eight this time around, remains part of the mix for the Eagles in this Super Bowl. The Eagles didn’t have a player with double-digit sacks on the roster this season and were roughly average with a 6.6% sack rate.
Here is where Carter, a 2023 first-round draft pick out of Georgia, comes in. Carter has blossomed quickly into a force of nature as both an explosive interior rusher and a run-stuffer. A non-Aaron Donald defensive tackle isn’t going to post an enormous sack total, but Carter is a double-team magnet who posted 56 pressures from the middle of the line and came in second in the league with six tipped passes (Pittsburgh’s All-Pro Cam Heyward had a ridiculous 11 to rank No. 1).
Carter leads the Eagles in pressures despite playing tackle. He also posted 78 run disruptions at a rate of three per every 10 carriers faced, making him arguably the most productive run-stopper in the league. He’s a true one-guy wrecking crew.
The Eagles were third in success rate allowed (36.1%), second in points allowed and first in yards allowed per play despite going from a historically great sacks defense in the 2022 season to an ordinary one in 2024.
Carter is key to the Eagles still generating lots of pressures (a 44.5% rate) even without getting sacks, and he’s also the foundation of a run defense that leaked a lot in 2022 but is now one of the game’s stoutest. His matchup against Chiefs center Creed Humphrey might decide Super Bowl 59.
Enjoy this? You also can follow along on at Instagram, Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and X.
