The 12 players who will define race for expanded postseason field

Team odds to make Playoff: +170

Tennessee’s upside hinges on Nico Iamaleava being ready for elite production as a first-year starter. All indications from spring camp suggest the former five-star recruit is poised for a tremendous breakout season, but proving it in the regular season against vaunted SEC defenses is a different beast. There may be some growing pains, though that is where the Vols’ strong defense can shoulder some of the burden. Edge rusher James Pearce Jr. is just about as important to that unit as Iamaleava is to the offense.

Team odds to make Playoff: +160

For a team replacing NFL-caliber starters at multiple key positions, it is impressive that Florida State enters the year as the favorite to repeat as the ACC champion. That is a testament to the outstanding work Mike Norvell put in on the transfer market, and no pickup was as important as DJ Uiagalelei, who turned a corner in his development during a one-year stint at Oregon State and looks poised to close his career on a high note. The question remains whether he can put the Seminoles on his back and win them games.

Team odds to make Playoff: +125

There might not be a bigger x-factor in college football than Harold Perkins. If anything holds LSU back from reaching the Playoff, it would be the defense, which has a glaring hole on the interior defensive line and numerous question marks in the secondary. But Perkins is an All-American-caliber force in the heart of that unit, and he carries a massive responsibility as a do-it-all weapon. If Perkins takes a step forward in his second year at inside linebacker, he will be a game wrecker who masks the Tigers’ deficiencies around him.

Team odds to make Playoff: +120

Malachi Moore is the veteran on this Alabama defense. He enters Year 5 with the program as the only returning defensive back on the roster with meaningful experience, and he and incoming Michigan transfer Keon Sabb have big tasks ahead of them at the safety spots. Kalen DeBoer-led teams always move the ball with ease, and that should not be much different in his debut season at Alabama. But in order for his first Crimson Tide squad to live up to the Playoff expectations that Nick Saban instilled over two decades, Moore and the defense need to hold up their end of the bargain.

Team odds to make Playoff: -105

Michigan’s defense could be the nation’s best, but the Wolverines need to move the ball in order to take advantage of that formidable unit. Doing so is less of a certainty with Alex Orji than it was with J.J. McCarthy, whose departure for the NFL sparked perhaps the highest-profile quarterback competition of the spring. Orji is the favorite to win the job and a total wild card as a passer, but should that part of his game come through in his first year as a starter, he would be the total package. A premier dual-threat option at quarterback makes Michigan nearly as strong of a contender as it was a year ago.

Team odds to make Playoff: -125

Few transfer portal acquisitions compare to the one Ole Miss pulled off with Walter Nolen. Not only was Nolen the top prospect on the market for quite some time, but he also filled a glaring need for the Rebels, who last year ranked 71st nationally against the run at 152.8 yards allowed per game. Assuming Nolen and his beastly interior presence spark improvement in that area, Ole Miss could be in for another one of the best seasons in school history — particularly since opponents will have a hard time keeping up with an explosive offense.

Team odds to make Playoff: -145

Drew Allar has to be a better downfield passer for Penn State to contend for a national title. His average depth of completion last season was essentially the only knock against a team that had all of the other weapons necessary to reach the four-team playoff. The offseason hire of new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki could help him tap further into his five-star potential, but will he get any help from a receiving corps that lacks proven talent? If the offense lacks explosiveness, the Nittany Lions might once again plateau around the 10-win mark.

Team odds to make Playoff: -170

Injuries are a concern for transfer quarterback Riley Leonard, who missed time last season with an ankle injury and sat for much of the spring on the heels of two offseason surgeries. If and when he is back at full strength, though, the new Notre Dame signal-caller has some of the best dual-threat tools in the land. There are no questions on the other side of the ball as Notre Dame brings a defense loaded with stars into the 2024 season, but in order for the Irish to fully capitalize on Playoff expansion, Leonard has to both stay on the field and be a game-changer.

Team odds to make Playoff: -230

Quinn Ewers is an obvious star as one of two preseason favorites to win the Heisman Trophy, but he needs a new go-to guy. Enter Isaiah Bond, the third-year wideout who ranked No. 1 among all wide receivers in the 2024 transfer cycle and who led Alabama last year with 48 receptions for 668 yards and four touchdowns. If the Texas offense continues to fire on all cylinders, those numbers may pale in comparison to the production he posts in 2024. The Longhorns’ offense has the potential to turn Bond into a Biletnikoff-caliber receiver. His career trajectory and recruiting pedigree suggest there is a star in the making here, too.

Team odds to make Playoff: -250

Jabbar Muhammad is arguably the best defender on the entire Oregon roster, and picking up such a talented weapon through the transfer portal was crucial for the Ducks, whose defensive backfield is probably the chief concern on their roster. Muhammad was a lockdown corner for rival Washington last season and needs to bring that kind of ferocious pass defense to Oregon for this team to go toe-to-toe with the very best teams in the country. All the other pieces are in place for Dan Lanning to guide the Ducks to new heights. He just needs the secondary to hold its own.

Team odds to make Playoff: -500

Joenel Aguero will be the heart of the vaunted Georgia defense as he steps into the starting lineup at the all-important STAR position. The former five-star recruit is largely untested with most of his action across 12 games as a true freshman coming on special teams, but he was a spring standout and has the same upside of the great UGA defensive backs that preceded him. The Bulldogs built their championship identity on defense, and if they return to the top of the college football world, it will be due in large part to Aguero emerging as a playmaker who can cover every inch of the field.

Team odds to make Playoff: -650

Ohio State has star power at essentially every position ahead of the 2024 season, and for that reason, the Buckeyes are an easy pick to win the national title. In order to get the most out of the offensive skill position talent, though, Will Howard has to prove to be more of a difference-maker at quarterback than Kyle McCord was for the Buckeyes last season. If ever there was a year Ohio State could get by with a game-manager at the position, it would be 2024. But if Howard emerges as one of the top quarterbacks in the nation, this team could be untouchable.