Lions and Packers and Vikings, oh my!
The 2024 NFC North is chock full of NFL contenders, and could lay claim to the best division in league history. Three of the four teams have a greater than 85% chance to make the playoffs heading into their Week 15 matchups, with the Lions already clinching their ticket and having all but locked up the division with four games to go.
At 12-1, the Detroit Lions have the inside track to the No. 1 seed in the NFC and are tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the best record in the NFL. The Minnesota Vikings aren’t far behind at 11-2 and will meet the Lions in Week 18 for a game that could decide the NFC North. And while the Green Bay Packers are currently 9-4, three of their four losses have come at the hands of their divisional foes.
Then we reluctantly have to mention the Chicago Bears, who sit at the bottom at 4-9 and have lost seven consecutive games – though four those were one-score losses.
NFC North 2024 Season Projections
Not only is the NFC North the only division in the league heading into Week 15 with two teams that have 11 or more wins, but it’s also the only one with three teams who have more than nine.
The AFC West could join them if the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos win, but only the Chiefs have more than 11 wins in that division. So in 2024, the NFC North is clearly superior. But this division is also among the best throughout NFL history.
Including this year’s NFC North squad, there have only been four other instances when a division had three teams with a .690 winning percentage or better, and none since 1976.
Divisions With Three Teams .690+ Winning Percentage
- 1953 Western: Detroit Lions (10-2)/San Francisco 49ers (9-3)/Los Angeles Rams (8-3-1)
- 1975 AFC Central: Pittsburgh Steelers (12-2)/Cincinnati Bengals (11-3)/Houston Oilers (10-4)
- 1976 NFC East: Dallas Cowboys (11-3)/St. Louis Cardinals (10-4)/Washington (10-4)
- 2024 NFC North: Detroit Lions (12-1)/Minnesota Vikings (11-2)/Green Bay Packers (9-4)*
(*Entering Week 15)
And if you combine each of the four teams in their respective divisions, the 2024 NFC North has the highest overall win percentage in NFL history.
The division’s collective .692 win percentage is better than two other divisions that included three teams with at least 10 wins: The 2007 AFC South and the 2013 NFC West.
For the purposes of this analysis, we’ll exclusively focus on the Lions, Vikings and Packers.
The Bears can still finish with a record slightly below .500, which would solidify the 2024 NFC North’s standing as the best division in NFL history. However, Chicago’s final four games are against playoff contending teams and three of those are versus the three divisional opponents.
How We Got Here
The Lions, Vikings and Packers have risen to the top in similar ways. They all have a top-10 scoring offense and scoring defense, proving that a balanced team equates to success more than heavily relying on a good offense or defense.
This played out especially in point differential, where the trio ranks first (Detroit), fourth (Minnesota) and seventh (Green Bay) in the league. This is the one area where the 2024 NFC South isn’t the best in NFL history, though.
The 2013 NFC West, which included the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks and NFC runner-up 49ers, took top marks here with a plus-359 point differential compared to the plus-333 point differential for this year’s NFC North.
Competent quarterback play and good offensive schematics play a large role for the offensive side of the ball. All three teams have a top-15 offensive success rate, buoyed by a top-12 pass success rate.
The three offensive player-callers – offensive coordinator Ben Johnson for the Lions, head coach Kevin O’Connell for the Vikings and head coach Matt LaFleur of the Packers — are all considered some of the best in the NFL. And their quarterbacks are executing at a high level.
Jared Goff, Sam Darnold and Jordan Love all average around 250 passing yards per game, have thrown for at least 20 touchdown passes and have a QB EVE (Efficiency Versus Expected) of 1.1 or better (which ranks in the top six in the NFL).
All three stats – plus completion percentage – underscore the quarterbacks’ ability to efficiently manage games, score points, and maximize offensive opportunities, making them the driving force behind their teams’ high-powered and balanced offenses.
Running the ball is very important to all three teams, too. They rank third (Lions), 10th (Vikings) and sixth (Packers) in rushing attempts this year, and the Lions and Packers rank in the top seven in yards and touchdowns on the ground.
This is critical not only to building a good offense but setting up success through the air like the trio of quarterbacks has done this year. All three rank in the top 15 in completion percentage and well-thrown percentage off of play action, with Goff and Darnold ranking fourth and fifth in completion rate and sixth and eighth in well-thrown rate, respectively.
Defensively, it’s a mixed bag when you dig a little deeper. None of these teams give up a lot of points, but only the Lions and Vikings have a more well-rounded defense. Detroit and Minnesota rank eighth and seventh in defensive success rate allowed, respectively, while Green Bay ranks 29th.
This is likely a big reason why the Lions and Vikings were able to break away from the Packers in the division. Green Bay, which ranks fifth in rushing yards with 144.7 per game, averaged just 107.6 in its three losses to Detroit (twice) and Minnesota despite good production from Love through the air.
Now What?
The biblical “iron sharpens iron” phrase has taken on a life of its own in the NFL world, but the applications within a strong division have proven fruitful throughout history.
Five of the division winners from the most successful divisions in NFL history went to the NFL Championship or Super Bowl that season, and four of them won – the 1936 Packers and 1953 Lions during the pre-Super Bowl era, and the 1975 Steelers and the 2013 Seahawks. The 2022 Eagles lost in the Super Bowl by three points to the Chiefs.
When you’re constantly playing the best of the best, the regular season feels like the playoffs while the playoffs feel like the regular season. This is helpful for a trio of teams looking to break through its own history to raise a Lombardi Trophy. While the Packers last won in 2010, the Vikings have never won a title and the Lions’ only NFL championships were won before the existence of the Super Bowl.
The NFC North is a fertile ground for quality teams this year. The hope, now, is for their regular-season success to carry over in the postseason come January.
Research support provided by Stats Perform’s Sam Hovland. Check out our NBA, NFL, college basketball, FBS and FCS coverage. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.
