Recently, our own Alex Kozora dove into the No. 1 Flaw With Russell Wilson. The data matched his feelings when watching the film: Wilson struggled more facing zone than man coverage. Defenses picked up on this, which was a big factor in the Steelers’ offense looking worse to end the season.
The goal today is to further our findings more visually since a picture can tell a thousand words and compare how Steelers QBs stacked up across the league in the 2024 regular season.
I will start by using two extremely valuable data points: Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt (ANY/A) and Expected Points Added Per Dropback (EPA) facing zone coverage:
Here, we see that Wilson was below average in both key stats that predict success against zone coverage. In the regular season, his 5.6 ANY/A tied for 24th out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks, and -0.05 EPA landed 29th. Considering the ultimate goal is putting points on the scoreboard and both stats accounting for that, this is unfortunate territory that crippled the passing game against wise and strong teams in the painful losing streak to close 2024.
Many speculate that QB Justin Fields is more likely to resign with Pittsburgh. Though he started just six games at the beginning of 2024, comparing his results to Wilson and the rest of the NFL is interesting. Fields had an eerily similar EPA, ranking one spot higher than Wilson when facing zone coverage, along with a more notable edge and only above-average mark of the two in ANY/A at 6.3 (19th).
It’s not an earth-shattering edge for Fields, but it’s interesting to learn. To put their seasons facing zone coverage into more context, one quarterback “breaks” the visual with a 10.6 ANY/A and 0.37 EPA – Raven Lamar Jackson. My ANY/A articles already highlighted Baltimore leading the NFL in offensive ANY/A across the board, and Jackson was the most successful when facing zone coverage substantially.
This included the Steelers’ unfortunate Wild Card loss to Jackson and company, who played a lot of zone en route to Pittsburgh’s defeat. So, not only was zone coverage an issue for Wilson, but he faced it more often in the four-straight losses, and the Steelers’ defense also had issues limiting the opposition in the situation.
Let’s compare the findings to man coverage with the same data points:
From the premise, you knew Wilson was a stronger QB when facing man coverage. Although there was a smaller sample size, we also see this was true for Fields, with both landing on the top right and the more desirable spectrum of this visual. Wilson clearly had the stronger 7.9 ANY/A, ranking eighth best in the NFL, and a 0.02 EPA (13th).
Recalling those numbers were much worse at 5.6 and -0.05 facing zone, it’s clear where Wilson is more comfortable. He’s a moonball or short area passer and takes his shots when the defense gives him man coverage largely. So, being stronger against man was expected, but this much of a spread in quality simply won’t get it done against the NFL’s best.
How realistic is it to expect that to change for Wilson at this stage of his career? Never say never, but likely not considerably. Fields has youth on his side, with a higher chance to raise his ceiling. Also, Pittsburgh ran a much more conservative offense in his six games. If he were to become the starter in 2025, there is at least an encouraging potential for what he could grow into.
This year, Fields had the better mark in EPA (0.08), which ranked tenth impressively. ANY/A was a different story, though, only slightly above the mean, with a 6.0 ANY/A that ranked 20th. For more context to Pittsburgh’s numbers, the top ANY/A QB against man coverage in 2024 was Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts (9.8), who also handed Pittsburgh a loss amidst the painful losing streak and was second to only Detroit’s Jared Goff’s 0.4 EPA.
Comparing Jackson’s top zone coverage stats, I wanted to provide his man numbers: 7.1 ANY/A (11th), -0.005 EPA (19th). So, he is still an above-average quarterback, but he was clearly an elite zone passer like no other in 2024, including Pittsburgh’s room.
To close, here are some other important stats Kozora and I looked at for the studies, with league-wide ranks for both Wilson and Fields. Bolded numbers are for the QB that ranked stronger:
There is more context to Wilson clearly having more success vs. man coverage, including top ten ranks in TD rate, ANY/A, QBR, and average throw depth. Fields had some impressive marks, too, top ten in INT rate and EPA and above-average on-target and completion rates that topped Wilson. Fields did have poor average throw depth and TD rate at the unwanted spectrum compared to Wilson.
Zone results both QBs needed to be better. But seeing Fields have the edge on Wilson in the 7-of-8 stats we looked at is very telling. Wilson did have top-10 marks in on-target and interception rates but was at to below-average otherwise. Fields only had one top-ten mark, interception rate, with strong results regardless of coverage. More middling elsewhere, though.
So, whoever the Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback is in 2025, they will hopefully fare much better against zone coverage.
