Just last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers appeared to have a comfortable lead in the AFC North and the inside track to their first division title since 2020. Now just a game ahead of the Baltimore Ravens and with a head-to-head matchup this Saturday, the Steelers could be in some trouble with a loss.
“I think the Steelers are in trouble,” said former QB Ryan Fitzpatrick said via the Fitz & Whit podcast on YouTube. “I think the Ravens are coming for ’em.”
The Ravens certainly look like one of the best teams in football right now, and they are coming off a fantastic performance against the New York Giants in Week 15. Lamar Jackson had more touchdown passes (five) than incompletions (four) and also chipped in 65 rushing yards.
This won’t be the first time the Steelers are facing a divisional opponent coming off a stellar offensive performance. They played Jameis Winston just a couple weeks ago after he nearly eclipsed 500 passing yards and Joe Burrow a few weeks ago after he threw for 356 yards and three touchdowns against the Chargers.
Their defense is playing much better than it was earlier in the season, too. Mike Tomlin acknowledged during his weekly press conference Monday that the defense looks completely different since last time the Steelers played the Ravens.
The Ravens appear to be getting hot at the right time while the Steelers are coming off a deflating 14-point loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Keep in mind that the Ravens lost to that same Eagles team the week prior, albeit with a closer score at 24-19 compared to the Steelers’ 27-13.
The Steelers have had a decisive edge over the Ravens in recent years, winning eight of the last nine games against them. Lamar Jackson has just one win against the Steelers in his career. They have made him look average at best, even in seasons where he ended up winning MVP.
“The Steelers have had Lamar’s number, so I think it’s just gonna be really, really interesting,” Fitzpatrick said.
Throw all that out the window for an AFC North matchup in Baltimore, however. History only means so much, and the Ravens will be looking to outphysical the Steelers. The Steelers’ defense is in particular trouble after logging 77 snaps against the Eagles. We will see how DeShon Elliott, Larry Ogunjobi, Donte Jackson, and T.J. Watt progress on the injury report, but the group is pretty beat up entering this game.
If the Ravens win, it won’t be a done deal for the AFC North. The two teams will be tied in the win-loss column and even in the head-to-head tiebreaker. They would both be 3-2 in the division as well, so the tiebreaker would move to conference record. The Steelers have the edge there at the moment, but tiebreakers won’t matter if the Steelers can’t keep up in record with the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals to round out the schedule.
The Week 18 game against the Bengals will be of particular importance to stay even with the Ravens in divisional record.
“The Ravens, the Steelers and the Chiefs having to play three games in 11 days. All of them playing on Christmas. It’s gonna be a war of attrition in the AFC at the end of the year,” Fitzpatrick said. “It’s gonna be tough for all three of those teams.”
Above are the Steelers’ chances of winning the division with and without a win against the Ravens this weekend, per ESPN. With a win, they clinch. With a loss, they will be just above the Ravens with a 55-percent chance of taking the division and hosting a playoff game.
This could be the difference between hosting a team like the Denver Broncos or traveling to play the Houston Texans or Ravens in the first round of the playoffs.
