Tottenham slumped to a new low on Sunday after the worst result of the Ange Postecoglou era. As the relegation zone comes into view, we ask whether the unthinkable could happen?
Tottenham’s defeat at home to newly-promoted and relegation-threatened Leicester City on Sunday wasn’t even that surprising.
Even with Ange Postecoglou’s side going in 1-0 up at the break after Richarlison’s 33rd-minute header, losses have become so common this season that throwing away a lead against a side who were on a seven-match losing streak still didn’t come as a total shock.
That is not to defend Tottenham’s collapse. It was the first time since 1912 that they’d lost to a side who had themselves lost their last seven in a row. Leicester had only won one game from a losing position all season, and that was against Southampton, who have a genuine chance of posting the lowest points total in Premier League history.
It was an inexcusable result for a team who many have been assuming will get out of this rut and stop the slide towards the drop zone.
But those assumptions are based on Tottenham winning games like these. A home match against the team in 19th position, who are on the worst losing run by any team in the Premier League this season and the joint-worst by any team since 2020-21 (Sheffield United – eight) is one there is no reason not to be winning.
Postecoglou will continue to point to the injury crisis that has wrecked his squad and Tottenham’s season. But there is certainly a case to be made that the high-intensity style of football that Postecoglou has Spurs playing is to blame for the injury problems and is also putting too much strain on the dwindling group of players who are still fit.
But an explanation for Tottenham’s form isn’t what they need. Knowing who or what is to blame alone won’t do anything to end their terrible run.
And that run has been so bad that Spurs have dropped into a relegation battle. They might fit the definition of the ‘too good to go down’ cliché perfectly, but their form right now is so bad that there really is a chance they will get relegated.
It might still be slim, but it is a chance nonetheless. In the latest batch of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, Tottenham went down 16 times. Essentially, it says they have just a 0.16% chance of relegation.
Not that we want to point out a flaw in the omniscient supercomputer’s logic, but much of its projections are based on Tottenham’s record in times further back than the past few months. The supercomputer still considers Spurs the 29th-best team in the world. It still assumes that they will win their winnable games. They were huge favourites to beat Leicester at the weekend, for example, and the supercomputer still (just about) gives them the edge for next week’s trip to Brentford.
But given the way Spurs’ exhausted remaining players are performing at the moment, there is no reason to rely on them to win any game.
They have won only one of their last 10 matches, and that came against Southampton. Their only other point in that time came in a home game against lowly Wolves. Only Southampton (one) have won fewer points over their last 10 matches than Spurs (four).
In late November, Spurs were sixth and just four points off second place. Since then, they have slumped to 15th, 23 points off second and just eight above the relegation zone.
That buffer and the struggles of the teams below them are quite possibly their biggest hope. A big part of the reason Spurs’ chances of going down remain so low in the supercomputer’s eyes is that there’s so little chance of three of the five teams below them clawing back that deficit.
Surely, Spurs have enough in the bank to hold off three of Everton, Leicester, Wolves, Ipswich and Southampton, right?
They should still be able to, particularly if the players who are on their way back from injury and may even be set to return imminently can remain injury-free for the rest of the season. Tottenham’s first team really is too good to go down. They are still – somehow – the Premier League’s third-highest-scoring team this season, with 46 goals in 23 games.
But even if they do score, they have real problems protecting leads. Spurs have dropped more points from winning positions this season than any other side in the Premier League (21).
And they also struggle to break teams down once they’ve gone behind. Those difficulties have been even more pronounced during their recent injury crisis.
In the last 10 games in which Spurs have gone behind at some point, they have avoided defeat only once. And on that occasion – the 2-2 draw with Wolves – they went behind as early as the seventh minute, and also threw away a lead late on. After going 2-1 down to Leicester on Sunday, Spurs failed to create a single chance of note, and never really looked like getting back into the game.
The result meant another single-goal defeat for Spurs. That’s 12 for the season – more than any other team in the Premier League.
An optimist might say these numbers prove Tottenham aren’t quite as terrible as this barren run suggests. They have been close to getting something in most of their defeats, the exception being the 6-3 loss to Liverpool last month.
But opponents have become aware that Tottenham cannot break down low blocks, and are happy to sit on their leads, largely remaining untroubled after they go ahead. Spurs’ expected goals per 90 is significantly lower when they’re losing (1.28) – precisely when they need a goal – than when they’re drawing (1.50 xG per 90) or when they’re winning (1.94 xG per 90).
The latest they have been trailing in a game that they have drawn or won this season is the 49th minute – a 4-1 win over Aston Villa in early November. Every other Premier League team has scored a later result-altering goal, and 16 of them have done so after the 80th minute.
In other words, whenever this Tottenham team have been losing as late as the 50th minute this season, it’s proved too late for a comeback. So, when Leicester got their second in the 50th minute on Sunday, nobody should have expected anything other than an away win.
Tottenham have plummeted down the Premier League table in recent weeks, and their confidence-sapped players are showing little sign of turning things around.
Relegation isn’t yet on the cards, but Spurs’ form means they will – and should – be looking over their shoulders nervously. As the relegation zone gets closer with every passing week, there really is no guarantee they are too good to go down.
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