Top 10 games with most upset alert potential in 2024

The Gators could be an absolute trainwreck of a team by the regular-season finale or there’s always the opposite side of the coin. Florida goes into Tallahassee with bowl-eligibility on the horizon, or even better, and Billy Napier’s squad is better than advertised and playing the spoiler-role. Everyone, for the most part, has written off the Gators as a contender in the SEC in 2024 and relegated this team to the bottom-tier of the league’s projected standings. Meanwhile, Florida State is garnering top-15 love in post-spring rankings and cleaned up in the portal with its sights set on a playoff appearance.

Who’s picking the Razorbacks, with a head coach on one of the SEC’s hottest seats, to beat Oklahoma State on the road in Week 2? Few, if any. That’s what makes this game primed for a potential upset in Stillwater. The Cowboys welcome back more starters than any team in college football this fall, while the first-teamers at Arkansas are a blend of returning players and transfer portal additions. Since Arkansas opens against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, this will be the first weekend we see Bobby Petrino’s full spread offensively, too.

Albeit mild, NC State beating Tennessee at Bank of America Stadium in Week 2 would shift the national spotlight toward the Wolfpack, who will have passed the first of only two tests this fall against teams we’ve ranked in our post-spring top 25. And undoubtedly, some of the offseason love evaporates more quickly than it appeared for the loser of this game in Charlotte. The Wolfpack and Vols each won nine games in 2023, but they look very different. NC State’s roster is portal-infused with an elite haul this cycle on the free agency market, while Tennessee gives the keys to its offense to former five-star signee Nico Iamaleava, who accounted for four touchdowns in his team’s blowout win over Iowa in the Citrus Bowl.

Wedged between meaningful early-season home games against Kentucky and LSU, the Rebels’ contest at Williams–Brice Stadium against South Carolina could get tricky. The Gamecocks have been a difficult team to beat in Columbia during Shane Beamer’s tenure and will be coming off of their open date that precedes three-consecutive matchups against top-25 competition. This one will mark a pivotal moment in both programs’ respective seasons and another storyline is Ole Miss transfer wideout Juice Wells making his return to South Carolina to take on his former team.

An early September matchup of transfer quarterbacks at Autzen Stadium; former five-star USC signal-caller Malachi Nelson is expected to be Boise State’s starter going up against Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel. This game is important for two reasons — Oregon is a preseason top-5 team with its new Big Ten schedule beginning a few weeks later while the Broncos could be among the Group of Five’s playoff threats if they upset the Ducks on the road. First-year Boise State coach Spencer Danielson could have his hands full against Dan Lanning.

Getting an open week after the season opener is a rarity, but Ryan Walters and the Boilermakers will be facing extra time to prepare for one of their toughest opponents in September. This means Purdue has a chance to correct everything it doesn’t like on film after playing Indiana State early and, projecting here, may not have to show the entire playbook prior to the Fighting Irish coming West Lafayette. Notre Dame opens at Texas A&M and then plays NIU prior to Purdue, so there’s a chance Marcus Freeman’s squad will be unbeaten and ranked inside the top 10 as a favorite.

By the time this game is played, who knows if it’ll actually qualify as an upset since the Tigers could very well be unbeaten and ranked inside the top 10 if they’re able to handle Texas A&M and Auburn in previous weeks. However, the defending SEC champions are particularly tough to beat in Tuscaloosa after seeing a nation-leading 21-game home streak end last fall to Texas. Missouri has the firepower to hang with Alabama and potentially give the Crimson Tide their first home SEC loss since Joe Burrow came to town and won, 46-41, in 2019.

The Wolverines are a marked team this fall after winning their first national championship since the 1997 season and by this stage of the season in Week 6, there’s a good chance Washington will have worked out all of the kinks offensively under first-year coach Jedd Fisch. That’s not necessarily great news for Michigan, which throttled the Huskies in January with a much different-looking team. We’re guessing the Wolverines will be at least a touchdown favorite on the road against one of the Big Ten’s newest additions.

It may not fall under the “upset alert” category if Nebraska is finishing up a breakout season under Matt Rhule and the Trojans are struggling through Year 1 as a Big Ten program, but for now, it gets that label. The Huskers have never beaten USC (0-4-1) with the last matchup between two of college football’s winningest programs coming in 2014. What are the chances either of these two will be in Big Ten championship contention at this point of the campaign? That would raise the stakes even higher in Los Angeles.

The Bulldogs are 11-1 against the Rebels in the past 25 seasons, the lone setback coming in Oxford during the 2016 campaign. Ole Miss was loaded with elite talent under Hugh Freeze, but it didn’t materialize, with five wins later being vacated. This time around, Lane Kiffin looks to make good on the best roster the Rebels have assembled in program history, on paper, after finishing with 11 wins last fall and capitalizing on that momentum through the transfer portal. The Grove will be buzzing for this one featuring two potential playoff teams and SEC title hopefuls.