The rested Astros, who rallied to win their sixth American League West championship in seven years on the final day of the regular season, will begin their quest for a seventh consecutive berth in the AL Championship Series against the Twins, who snapped an 18-game playoff losing streak by sweeping the Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card Series.
Minnesota went 4-2 against Houston in the regular season, winning a series at home in April and another at Minute Maid Park in late May, so it’s been four months since the teams have met.
In fact, the three Astros pitchers who would likely start the first three games — Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier — haven’t faced the Twins this year. Houston also didn’t face Minnesota ace Pablo López.
The Astros have played 92 playoff games since the start of the 2015 season, which is more than any team in baseball, so their vast postseason experience can’t be ignored. Of course, one of the players who’s been a part of that success now wears a Twins uniform.
Minnesota shortstop Carlos Correa is one of the biggest postseason performers in Astros history and was a cornerstone player on their 2017 World Series championship team, as well as AL pennant-winning teams in ‘19 and ‘21.
“Obviously, they’ve got a great team and so do we,” Correa said. “We’re going out there with the mentality that we can compete against anybody. When I look at our roster, everywhere you look, we’re ready. Our bullpen, our rotation, our lineup, is deep. I feel good about the team we have, and I feel confident going to Houston.”
The Astros are trying to become the first team to repeat as World Series champions since the Yankees in 1998-2000.
When is the game and how can I watch it?
First pitch is set for 4:45 p.m. ET/3:45 p.m. CT on Saturday, and it will be televised in the U.S. on FS1.
All series are available in the US on MLB.TV with authentication to a participating Pay TV provider. Games are available live internationally (except in Canada). Full game archives will be available approximately 90 minutes after the game ends.
Who are the starting pitchers?
Twins: Bailey Ober/Joe Ryan
The Twins have a tough choice to make here. They could have López rested in time for Game 2, but they need to choose someone else from their rotation depth for Game 1. Ober (26 starts, 3.43 ERA) was the most consistent of the three and he had been held in reserve in case the Twins needed to use Ryan for Game 3 of the Wild Card Series.
But would Minnesota simply push Ryan back for Game 1 of the ALDS? It might not be that simple, because Ryan allowed five runs in four innings when he faced Houston at Minute Maid Park on May 30.
Astros: Justin Verlander
It’s not official, but it would be hard to imagine the Astros not giving the ball to Verlander for Game 1, like they did last year on their way to the 2022 World Series title. Verlander, traded back to Houston in July after signing with the Mets last offseason, finished the season strong with four earned runs allowed in his final three starts (19 innings).
Verlander’s 16 career playoff wins are second all-time behind Andy Pettitte (19), with nine of those coming as a member of the Astros. In all, Verlander is 16-11 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 35 career postseason appearances (34 starts). He’s 22-10 with a 2.76 ERA in 40 career starts against the Twins.
What are the projected starting lineups?
Twins: Assuming Verlander starts, there’s no reason for the Twins to turn away from the lineup facing righties that won them two games in the AL Wild Card Series against the Blue Jays. They made only one minor tweak between Game 1 and Game 2 that series, so expect more of the same here.
Astros: Mauricio Dubón has started in center field in games started by Verlander, who’s expected to get the ball to open Game 1. If that’s the case, Chas McCormick moves to left field, which means Yordan Alvarez will have to be the designated hitter. Martín Maldonado has been catching Verlander, too, so the veteran backstop likely will be behind the plate once again.
How will the bullpens line up after the starter?
Twins: The benefit of taking care of business in two games against the Blue Jays is that the bullpen will, again, be fully rested. Minnesota used Brock Stewart and Caleb Thielbar as setup men for Griffin Jax (eighth inning) and Jhoan Duran (ninth inning), and they showed particular faith in Jax to attack the 3-4-5 of Toronto’s lineup on two straight nights.
The Twins also showed a lot of trust in rookie converted starter Louie Varland, who pitched high-leverage innings to bridge the gap to the others. That’s the ideal formula; expect to see Emilio Pagán, Kody Funderburk, Kenta Maeda and Chris Paddack in bridge-type situations.
Astros: Houston’s bullpen should be rested and reloaded after having five days off from the end of the regular season. That’s huge for relievers Bryan Abreu (fifth) and Hector Neris (tied for 10th), who were in the top 10 in the AL in innings pitched.
Kendall Graveman, Phil Maton and Rafael Montero were also in the top 20 in the AL, so the rest is much needed. Houston should have some quality long relief options in the bullpen, with José Urquidy and Hunter Brown available if they’re not starting.
Twins: Royce Lewis was not running well throughout the AL Wild Card Series due to the left hamstring strain he sustained two weeks before the start of the playoffs. Two more days of rest could help that — but perhaps not to the point that he would start in the field. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him once again limited to DH and running at less than 100 percent.
Correa was struck in the right hand by a pitch during his final plate appearance of Game 2, but X-rays revealed no fracture. Duran had a small cut on his right thumb that required treatment before he pitched the ninth inning of Game 2, but that’s also not expected to be an issue.
Who’s hot, who’s not?
Twins: Lewis already cemented his October legacy in Minnesota by homering in his first two postseason plate appearances to single-handedly push the Twins’ offense past the Blue Jays in Game 1 of their AL Wild Card Series. And, to no surprise, Correa flexed his postseason muscle with a team-leading three hits in the sweep of the Blue Jays.
Most of the team had been hot in September except Michael A. Taylor (.590 OPS) and Christian Vázquez (.670 OPS), but Vázquez did not see any action in the Wild Card Series.
Astros: Alvarez was named AL Player of the Month for September. He slashed .293/.441/.620 with eight homers and 20 RBIs in the month, but he still didn’t lead the team in RBIs in that span.
A resurgent Jose Abreu hit seven homers and drove in 28 runs in the final month of the regular season, finishing with 90 RBIs. He posted a .911 OPS after Sept. 1, and Tucker had a .858 OPS in that span. In the last 10 games, Bregman had a .654 OPS, Peña had a .655 OPS and Dubón had a .609 OPS.
