With the help of the AI-powered Opta supercomputer, we provide our UEFA Champions League match predictions for every game across 2024-25.
The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all UEFA Champions League matches and season outcomes.
Real Madrid have won the most European Cup/Champions League titles (15), with nine of those coming in the UCL era since 1992. They’ll be looking to add yet another this season following their 2023-24 success in the final against Borussia Dortmund at Wembley Stadium.
Manchester City are likely to be their biggest rivals in the quest for European glory in 2024-25, with Pep Guardiola’s side having won their first title in 2023 versus Internazionale. Fellow Premier League side Arsenal are also highly fancied, but they’re yet to win a UCL title despite this being their 21st season in the competition.
Now, all of that is a little far in the future to be given much consideration yet, but our AI-powered Opta supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2023-24 and is continuing to make predictions for every fixture this season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Champions League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest UCL projections.
Matchday 7 Predictions
Tuesday 21 January
Liverpool will be confirmed in the last 16 of the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League if they avoid defeat against Lille. A draw will be enough for them to finish inside the top eight positions, although even if they suffer a shock defeat, other results could go their way and also see them through.
They are the only team remaining with a 100% record, however, and will be keen to keep that run going. Arne Slot’s side have the most competitive wins among teams in the top five European leagues this season (25), and the Opta supercomputer thinks they’ll make it 26. The Reds won 69.8% of pre-match simulations.
The only team with a higher chance of winning on Tuesday, according to the supercomputer at least, are Atalanta, who face Austrian side Sturm Graz in Bergamo. The Serie A side won 75.9% of pre-match sims, which would mean they end a five-game winless streak at home in the Champions League (D3 L2). No Austrian side has ever won against Italian opposition in the UCL in 15 attempts (D3 L11), so this feels like an ideal opportunity.
The other early kick-off on Tuesday sees Aston Villa looking to win big in Monaco. Should they win, it’ll put them in a fantastic position to qualify for the last 16 as one of the top eight clubs in the league phase with just one matchday to play, but a defeat would see Monaco draw level with them on 13 points. It’s a close call as to who wins according to the supercomputer, with Monaco (38.7%) just shading Villa’s 35.4% in the pre-match simulations.
Bayer Leverkusen are on a quite ridiculous 12-match winning run as they head to Atlético Madrid looking to also put themselves in a fantastic position ahead of the final matchday next week. They are one of six teams locked on 13 points, with only Barcelona (15) and Liverpool (18) above them, while their La Liga hosts trail them by only a point.
Atlético themselves had been on a terrific winning streak of 15 games before it came to an unexpected halt with a 1-0 away defeat at Leganés on Saturday. However, the supercomputer is backing them to be favourites in a tight affair this time around, as they won 39.8% of pre-match sims compared to 33.1% by Leverkusen.
Only Liverpool (18) have bettered Barcelona’s 15 points in the league phase across the opening six matchdays of the 2024-25 campaign, and Barça could take a giant step to a top-eight finish with an away win in Lisbon against Benfica. While the supercomputer is backing them to do it (46.1%), they will have nightmares about their last trip to the Estádio da Luz in September 2021, when Benfica shocked them 3-0 in the group stage.
The night’s other four games are predicted to see the away team triumph, with Borussia Dortmund backed to defeat Bologna, Juventus expected to beat Club Brugge, PSV favourites away at Crvena zvezda and Stuttgart tipped to keep Slovan Bratislava – who are already eliminated – on zero points.
Wednesday 22 January
Brest have been the surprise package in the 2024-25 Champions League, winning 13 points from a possible 18 after six matchdays and in a strong position to advance directly to the last 16, let alone make the play-offs.
They travel to Gelsenkirchen to face Shakhtar Donetsk in one of Wednesday’s early kick-offs looking to become the first French side to win five games in their debut UCL season since Lyon in 2000-01. The supercomputer sees this as the closest game to call on MD 7, with Brest winning just 0.3% more often in the pre-match sims than the Ukrainians (36.6% vs 36.3%).
RB Leipzig have suffered a terrible season in the UCL so far, losing all six of their matches and already eliminated as one of three sides yet to win a point in the 2024-25 league phase. A home game with Sporting CP gives them the chance to at least pick up a consolation win, but the Portuguese club are favoured with the Opta supercomputer with a 40.0% win probability compared to the Bundesliga sides’ 34.4%.
Young Boys are another side already eliminated and without a single point in the league phase, a situation that Celtic will be hoping to capitalise on when they face the Swiss club at Celtic Park on Wednesday night. A win would boost Celtic’s hopes of making the play-offs for the last 16, but a shock defeat could be a disaster. Fortunately for Brendan Rodgers’ men, the Opta supercomputer thinks it should be a comfortable home win, with Celtic picking up the three points in 67.0% of pre-match sims.
Four of Europe’s bigger clubs are heavily backed to win their UCL games on Wednesday, with Bayern Munich (away at Feyenoord), Inter Milan (at Sparta Prague), Arsenal (at home to Dinamo Zagreb) and Real Madrid (versus RB Salzburg at home) all having a win probability of more than 60%.
The biggest match up of the night, on paper at least, is Manchester City’s trip to Paris Saint-Germain.
Both teams have massively disappointed in the competition this season, with reigning champions City winning just 8 points from their six games so far and PSG winning a point fewer (7). There’s a fair chance that if this match produces a winner, it’ll be enough for them to reach the play-off round, but if the game sees a loser, they could end up being the biggest name casualty of the league phase.
Considering Man City’s poor seasonal form in all competitions, PSG have been labelled as the pre-match favourites with the supercomputer (39.2%), but City aren’t far off that probability themselves (36.5%) in what promises to be an intriguing encounter in the French capital.
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