UFC 300 is finally here, and it’s going to be incredible.
Headlined by a light heavyweight title fight between Alex Pereira and Jamahal Hill, the card also features a strawweight title between Weili Zhang and Yan Xiaonan and a “BMF” title fight between Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway. On top of that, the card features seven other former UFC champions and a two-time Olympic gold medalist. It’s the greatest fight card ever assembled on paper, so let’s look at all of these fights.
As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images
Straight Bets
Alex Pereira (-130)
Pereira is one of the best strikers in the world, and he’s fighting a man who has never shot a takedown during his entire UFC career. That’s a pretty good start for anyone backing Pereira. On top of that, we add in Hill’s injury status. He’s returning pretty soon from his achilles injury, and if you want to fight Pereira, then it would be better to do so without any possible issues.
Hill certainly can win this fight, but that’s too many strikes against him to feel comfortable. I’m backing the world class kickboxer in a fight that will likely be exclusively kickboxing.
Max Holloway (+136)
This fight is going to be amazing. Holloway has one of the greatest chins in MMA history, and Gaethje is a monstrously powerful puncher. That’s going to be a fun watch. Holloway’s weakness has always been chopping the legs, and Gaethje is one of the best leg-kickers in the sport. That’s a fun watch. Gaethje’s defense is primarily shelling up to catch punches on the arms, and Holloway has the highest strike differential in UFC history – and it’s not close. Again, a fun watch.
Whoever takes a backward step in this fight is going to be the guy who loses, and I can’t help but think that will be Gaethje. Holloway’s durability lets him survive Gaethje’s brutal offense, and his output takes over the fight.
Jiri Prochazka (-105)
The former light heavyweight champion takes on Aleksandar Rakic in the featured prelim fight, and I like his chances to get back on the winning track. Prochazka is chaos incarnate, while Rakic’s entire game is to quiet chaos. That’s simply not something Prochaza will allow. He’s going to bring the thunder, and at that point, your choice is to answer him head on – or wilt underneath. But since Rakic doesn’t have much one-hit KO power, his chances of winning a firefight with Jiri are slim.
Calvin Kattar (+145)
Former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling makes his featherweight debut against Kattar, and I’m a bit surprised “Aljo” is the favorite. Kattar is the naturally bigger fighter and the far better striker. Most importantly, though, Kattar is an excellent defensive wrestler. Zabit Magomedsharipov struggled to get Kattar down and could barely hold him down when he did, so why does Las Vegas think Sterling will have more success? If we’d previously seen Sterling at 145, maybe I could see him being the favorite. But for his first time at this weight class, give me the underdog with the good style matchup.
Jessica Andrade (-142)
The former strawweight champion faces Marina Rodriguez on the prelims, and this is a deal of a price. If this fight happened at the same time this past year, Andrade would have been a -250 favorite at least. But she’s lost three in a row, and people are wondering if “Bate Estaca” is on the decline. When she bashed Mackenzie Dern around the cage, that question appeared to be answered, but the books still aren’t sure. Even if Andrade is in decline, Rodriguez is, as well, and she’s not physical enough to keep the former champion from dominating this fight.
Jim Miller (+154)
It’s UFC 300. If you think we’re betting on Bobby Green, you’re outside your god-given mind. This is Jim Miller’s day. That’s all the analysis you need.
Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images
Prop Bets
Weili Zhang to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-110)
Was Yan Xiaonan’s win over Jessica Andrade a sign she has elevated her game massively? That’s the only question for the co-main event this weekend. If yes, then this fight suddenly gets quite competitive. If not, this should be batting practice for the champion. Carla Esparza dominated Yan on the floor, and Weili should be able to finish her there. Add in the extra bump Weili should get from her own custom fight shorts, and I think we get a statement performance from the champion.
Deiveson Figueiredo To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+175)
Figueiredo faces Cody Garbrandt in the first fight of the evening, and if that doesn’t tell you everything you need to know about this card, I don’t know what will. I’ve written plenty about this fight already, and my opinion hasn’t changed for a second: Garbrandt simply cannot help but get drawn into brawls that he’s ill-equipped to compete in. Figueiredo will force him to do the same, and while “Figgy Smalls” can eat the shots Garbrandt puts on him, the reverse is not the same.
Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images
Parlay of the Week
Arman Tsarukyan (-225)
Tsarukyan faces Charles Oliveira in a main card bout on Saturday, and while “Do Bronx” is a darling dog for many, he’s not for me. Oliveira is a supremely dangerous fighter, but he’s facing a young, hungry wunderkind who’s never been finished and looks for all the world like a future champion. Worse yet, Tsarukyan’s shown a vastly improved striking game lately, meaning that Oliveira is at risk in all phases of the game.
Bo Nickal (-2100)
Nickal fights Cody Brundage in the main card opener, and the odds tell the story of what this fight is. It’s a squash match to get Nickal over on the biggest card of the year. His inclusion isn’t adding much to the parlay, but it’s also as close to a guarantee as there is in this business.
Kayla Harrison (-425)
Harrison makes her UFC and bantamweight debut against Holly Holm in a prelim bout, and while many are concerned about her ability to compete at 135 pounds, I am not. Harrison is a legitimate world-class athlete, and she’s been supremely confident the weight won’t be an issue. I trust her. When the cage door closes, Holm shouldn’t be much of one either, as she’s well beyond her prime – and Harrison is not Ronda Rousey. She’s not going to run headlong into punches, and Holm is eventually going to get thrown and finished.
Parlay these three bets together for -116 odds.
Wrap Up
This is obviously the biggest weekend of the year, so we decided to go all out. These are the weekends we live for. Enjoy it, folks.
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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