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UFC Vegas 101 takes place this weekend (Sat., Dec., 11, 2025) at UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. The ESPN+-streamed main event features a rematch between top-ranked women’s Strawweights with Mackenzie Dern meeting Amanda Ribas, who got the better of her compatriot in their first fight, winning via decision in 2019.
The first-ever MMA loss for Dern made her “who she is” today.
The co-main event has Santiago Ponzinibbio — who is trying to cling on to relevancy at Welterweight — meeting Carlston Harris. On the main card, we’ve also got Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Cesar Almeida, Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov, Austin Bashi vs. Christian Rodriguez and Punahele Soriano vs. Uros Medic.
UFC Vegas 101’s “Prelims” are headlined by Jose Johnson vs. Felipe Bunes in the Flyweight division. There’s also former main eventer Thiago Moises vs. Trey Ogden and a match-up of possibly exciting prospects in Viktoriia Dudakova vs. Fatima Kline.
Let’s checkout the money lines on “Dern vs. Ribas 2” and all the other bouts on the card …
UFC Vegas 101 Main Card Money Line Odds
Mackenzie Dern (+165) vs. Amanda Ribas (-200)
Obviously, we’ve seen this fight before; however, it was a relative age ago. Dern fought Ribas in 2019 in just her third UFC contest. Dern was coming off a so-so Octagon debut where she took a split decision over Ashley Yoder and then a submission win over Amanda Bobby Cooper (in a fight she missed weight for). Prior to those appearances, Dern was being talked up as a future champion because of her exploits in Invicta and Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA).
Ribas thoroughly derailed that hype train, exposing Dern as a not very well-rounded fighter. In the fight itself, Ribas chewed up Dern on the feet and took her down a couple of times. She also avoided all six of Dern’s takedown attempts.
Dern has gone 7-4 since that fight. She’s had some decent wins, including decisions over Angela Hill and Tecia Pennginton. But, she’s stumbled whenever given a chance to declare herself a true contender at Strawweight (see her knockout loss to Jessica Andrade here).
Meanwhile, Ribas has gone 5-4 since her win over Dern. Similarly, Ribas has failed to get past her toughest opponents. Most recently, she dropped a decision to Rose Namajunas via decision. Before that, she was TKO’d by Maycee Barber (see that here).
The bookies think history will repeat itself in this fight, listing Ribas as a decent-sized favorite (she was a +150 underdog in their first meeting). The old scouting report on Dern was rather simple — force her to fight standing up. That hasn’t changed much. Although, Dern has become more comfortable striking lately. She hasn’t become a great striker or anything, but her willingness to engage has made her fights more fun to watch.
Ribas is comfortable striking, too. And she’s better at it.
Indeed, Ribas lands 4.63 significant strikes per-minute and absorbs 3.4. Dern lands 3.4 significant strikes and absorbed 4.12. If those stats pan out in the fight, then Dern is going to get beat up. Ribas also has a three inch reach advantage.
If the striking battle is not going the way she wants, Dern will struggle to get the fight to the ground. Her takedown accuracy is a woeful 16 percent. And Ribas’ takedown defense is an excellent 85 percent.
Dern’s inability to consistently bring opponents into the area of the fight she is most potent is what has sabotaged her career and chances of being a serious title contender. I think we’re going to see that again on Saturday, with Ribas hitting Dern and staying far out of range of takedowns.
To get plus money on a Ribas bet (using DraftKings) you need to either take her against the spread (-5.5 at +125) or pick an exact method of victory. Ribas by decision is just -115. Unanimous decision is +130 and that’s where I’m going to go with my best bet.
Best bet: Amanda Ribas via unanimous decision (+130)
Santiago Ponzinibbio (-135) vs. Carlston Harris (+110)
Ponznibbio has not been the same since a series of infections threatened his career (and life) back in 2019. He was brutally KO’d by Li Jingliang in his return to action in 2021 (see it here) and has gone just 2-4 since then. Those losses include a knockout to Kevin Holland (see it here) and a split decision, last time out, to Muslim Salikhov. At 38, it seems unlikely the Argentinian will be able to recapture the form that saw him go on a seven-fight win streak that culminated in a knockout over a prime Neil Magny (see it here).
Harris is 37. He’s only been with UFC since 2021. He won his debut via anaconda choke (see it here) and followed that up with a technical knockout over Impa Kasanganay (see it here). He then ran into Shavkat Rakhmonov, who took him out in the first round (watch that here).
Harris is coming off a first round knockout loss to Khaos Williams in May.
So, we’ve got a guy coming off a split decision loss versus a guy coming off a knockout loss as our first co-main event of the year … great.
Harris is a rangy and experienced grappler, though there have to be questions about his chin (half of his six losses are T/KOs).
Ponznibbio is a well-rounded fighter who doesn’t excel at any one thing. His striking is better than Harris’, but it’s unclear that he still has the speed or power to put anyone away. His only finish in the last four years is Alex Morono in 2022 (see it here).
Harris will want to take down Ponizinibbio in the fight. And I think he might struggle to do that. Ponznibbio hasn’t been taken down since 2017 (when Mike Perry managed it!). He was able to stuff all five of Salikhov’s attempts in his last fight.
I think Ponznibbio deserves to be the favorite in this fight and I think he’ll probably take a decision, scoring on the feet (though not enough to land a knockout), while Harris whiffs on takedowns.
Best bet: Santiago Ponznibbio moneyline (-135)
Cesar Almeida (-300) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (+240)
Almeida gets -300 odds despite not showing us anything that impressive in the Octagon. Since coming over from GLORY, he’s won on Contender Series (via decision), TKO’d Dyan Budka (see it here) and been upset by Roman Kopylov (who showed how terrible Almeida’s wrestling was). In his last fight, he beat Ihor Potieria, but he did so after repeated fouls that were not punished by the referee. Potieria was constantly being disrupted by eye pokes and groin shots to the point that I think this win should have a heavy asterisk next to it.
Alhassan is no stranger to fouls.
His last fight ended in a “No Contest” after Alhassan was judged to have finished Cody Brundage with elbows to the back of the head, accidental of course. Prior to this fight Alhassan was submitted by Joe Pyfer (see it here).
I am loathe to trust either of these guys with my money. Almeida, 36, is incredibly one-dimensional. And Alhassan, 39, has terrible Fight IQ.
I think the best we can do here is hope for a finish, one way or another. When it comes to finishes, we can rule out submissions (neither man has ever won a fight that way).
Fight to end by KO/TKO/DQ is just -175. If we’re willing to pick one of these guys we can get Almeida via KO/TKO/DQ at +130 and Alhassan at +350.
There’s no value on the under, despite the total rounds being set at 1.5 rounds. Fight to not go the distance is also just -200.
The Winning Round prop on DraftKings is interesting. Round 1 is +180, Round 2 is +350 and Round 3 is +600.
Almeida has shown himself to be a bit of a slow starter, but Alhassan is known to get down to work quickly. I think Alhassan will force this to be a fire fight early on and we’ll get that finish inside five minutes.
Best bet: Winning round – Round 1 (+180)
Chris Curtis (+210) vs. Roman Kopylov (-275)
Curtis dropped a split decision to Brendan Allen last time out, in the main event of UFC Vegas 90. “Action Man” is 3-3 1 NC since 2021, with a knockout win over Joaquin Buckley (see it here) and a “No Contest” opposite Nassourdine Imavov because of a clash of heads. Curtis was supposed to fight Kevin Holland in Oct. 2024, but had to pull out because of a fractured foot.
Instead, he now gets Kopylov, who has not fought since his big underdog win over Cesar Almeida at UFC 302 in June. In that fight he showed some decent striking, but was smart in punctuating rounds with takedowns to earn a split decision. Before that he lost, via submission, to Anthony Hernandez (see that here).
No shame in that.
Prior to that Hernandez defeat, Kopylov had four stoppage wins in a row, including a head kick over Claudio Ribeiro (see it here) and a body punch on Josh Fremd.
This could be a really fun fight with some exciting exchanges on the feet. There’s also a little bad blood here, with Curtis accusing Kopylov of spying on his camp.
Curtis will look to test Kopylov with his creativity. Whereas the Russian will be more fundamentally sound and will hope his bodywork can set up another stoppage.
The oddsmakers like Kopylov’s chances here, perhaps since Curtis is turning 38 this summer.
Stats-wise, these guys are pretty similar in the striking department. Both have more than 50 percent accuracy and defense on significant strikes. Though, Kopylov is marginally ahead in both departments. The biggest difference is that Curtis absorbs more than six significant strikes per-minute (which is very high). Kopylov absorbs two fewer.
With Curtis being so hittable, and Kopylov liking to vary his assault with so many shots to the body, I think this could be a long night for the American.
I think Curtis is too tough to be stopped, though. So, I’m thinking this could be a Kopylov decision win, albeit a close one. The oddsmakers think this could be a close decision, too. They have a pick ‘em on the point spread (Curtis +3.5). In a close fight like this, I don’t feel comfortable going with the spread (for either fighter). Instead I’ll stick with simply Kopylov to earn a decision.
Best bet: Roman Kopylov to win via decision (+100)
Christian Rodriguez (+240) vs. Austin Bashi (-300)
Bashi, 23, made quite the splash on Contender Series last year. He dominated Dorian Ramos before putting him away with a second round rear-naked choke. UFC is trying to give him a lay-up here and, in the process, sell us on the value of Contender Series and the fighters it “produces.”
Rodriguez, meanwhile, has been in this situation before. He beat Raul Rosas Jr. in 2023 (as a +200 underdog) in a fight he missed weight. Most recently, Rodriguez was submitted in the first round by Julian Erosa (see it here).
The undefeated Bashi appears to be a relentless chain wrestler, though it’s hard to know if he can manage that kind of output and success now that the training wheels have come off on his UFC career.
Rodriguez has a 65 percent takedown defense, which is decent. Erosa did manage to take him down on his only attempt, though, despite having a career takedown accuracy below 50 percent.
In this situation I’ll trust the oddsmakers, and UFC, and assume Bashi is going to get the win. I like the point spread here, assuming Bashi will either get a finish or spend every round on top for 30-27s across the board.
Best bet: Austin Bashi -3.5 (+100)
Punahele Soriano (+165) vs. Uros Medic (-200)
Medic obliterated Tim Means with an uppercut in his last fight (see it here). That followed a submission loss to Myktybek Orolbai (see it here) and a spinning backfist win over Matthew Semelsberger (see it here).
Soriano, meanwhile, is coming off a decision win over Miguel Baeza where he landed an ungodly 144 significant strikes to Baezea’s seven. That fight was one of most one-sided, brutal and sustained ground-and-pound beatdowns you could watch in modern mixed martial arts (MMA). Soriano did this as a +165 underdog. This fight was also his Welterweight debut.
His last two fights at Middleweight were both stoppage losses, including a submission against Dustin Stoltzfus and a technical knockout against the aforementioned Kopylov.
The oddsmakers don’t seem totally convinced by Soriano’s demolition of Baeza (maybe because Baeza is in the midst of such a downturn in his career). Even so, I’m a little surprised to see the odds so far apart here (especially since Medic’s last opponent was pretty washed himself).
Draftkings has Medic as +140 to finish Soriano via (technical) knockout. That’s interesting, given that Soriano has been stopped with strikes just once in his career (the Kopylov loss). The bookies think Medic might end this quickly, too, with the round total set at 1.5.
Because I think this is a close fight (since I’m legitimately impressed by Soriano’s Welterweight debut), I’m looking at this fight going the distance. Over 1.5 rounds is just -166, but fight to end via decision is +150. Let’s go with that.
Best bet: Exact Method of Victory — Decision (+150)
UFC Vegas 101 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Jose Johnson (-190) vs. Felipe Bunes (+160)
Johnson is an interesting specimen in the Flyweight division. At 6’ tall, he will be five inches taller than Bunes. Though he’ll have just a two-inch reach advantage, Johnson’s size hasn’t translated to too much success in UFC thus far.
In fact, last time out he was rag-dolled by Asu Almabayev for a decision loss.
Bunes was finished by Joshua Van in his last fight (see it here), which was almost one year ago to the day. That was his UFC debut and Van was a short-notice opponent. It came after Bunes spent a year on the sidelines, too. His fight prior to that was an LFA title win via technical knockout against Yuma Horiuchi.
Bunes is 35 (six years older than Johnson).
Johnson hasn’t shown me enough to convince me he’s a deserving favorite in this bout. And I think Bunes might be getting treated a little harshly for that Van loss by the bookies.
I’ll take a flyer with the Pitbull Bros. teammate here.
Best bet: Felipe Bunes moneyline (+160)
Marco Tulio (-550) vs. Ihor Potieria (+400)
He lost to Cesar Almeida last time out after being repeatedly poked in the eye and hit in the groin. I think he showed a lot of toughness and resolve in that fight to hang in there and he even had some good moments on the feet against a supposed elite striker. Prior to that he was finished by Michel Pereira in a fight where he ate an illegal shot (which was disguised within a ridiculous backflip attack).
Potieria is the big underdog here against Tulio, who scored an audacious spinning back-kick win on Contender Series in Aug. 2024. The 30-year-old Chute Boxe fighter previously appeared in LFA and Fight Music Show (Brazil’s version of Misfits Boxing).
Tulio has a great highlight reel; however, the level of competition isn’t much to write home about. He’s a wide swinging power puncher who leaves himself hella open.
Potieria is more battle tested, but the endings of those battles haven’t inspired much confidence. He’s 2-5 in UFC now with three (technical) knockout losses.
This could be a very sloppy fight and the oddsmakers are banking on Tulio finishing Potieria quickly (the round total is set at 1.5). I think Ihor deserves a little more respect than that.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-130)
Thiago Moises (-190) vs. Trey Ogden (+160)
Moises was totally schooled by L’udovit Klein in his last fight. Moises’ UFC record is 7-6 now, but he deserves some credit for his strength of schedule. Among his losses are Islam Makhachev, Benoit Saint-Denis, Beneil Dariush and Joel Alvarez.
Ogden looked good in his last fight, out-wrestling Loik Radzhabov for the decision win. That gives him two wins in a row, his first winning streak in UFC.
Ogden went 4-5 on takedowns against Radzabov and looked about as energetic and technically sound as we’ve seen him. Against Klein, Moises was hesitant and couldn’t get out of the way of the jab. After getting beat up on the feet he was unable to connect on any of his eight takedown attempts.
With both men seemingly going in opposite directions, I’m a little surprised to see Moises as the favorite. I’m tempted to go for Ogden to get the upset here (just like he did against Daniel Zellhuber in 2022), but ultimately I’ll go the safe route, picking the over and suggesting that goes in some parlays.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-298)
Preston Parsons (+360) vs. Jacobe Smith (-500)
Parsons trades Andreas Gustafsson (whom he was a +170 underdog against) for Jacobe Smith (whom he is much less favored to win against). Parsons is coming off a decision loss to Oban Elliott (where he looked a distant second best).
Smith is 9-0 and coming off a finish on Contender Series.
I’m starting to wonder if these flashy Contender Series guys who get a big finishes are getting too much love from Vegas in their UFC debuts (looking at you Cortavious Romious).
Most of Smith’s wins are first round finishes (with many being in less than one minute). We’ve only go the moneyline available for this fight. I’m going for Parsons. Fighting Elliott to a decision loss is more impressive than anything Smith has done yet.
Best bet: Preston Parsons moneyline (+360)
Ernesta Kareckaite (-275) vs. Nicolle Caliari (+220)
Kareckaite is a striker. But, she was out-struck by a judoka (Dione Barbosa) in her UFC debut.
Caliari scored a submission on Contender Series in September (against a tomato can). She’s also a veteran of Fight Music Show.
Kareckaite will have a ton of size over Caliari. She’s six inches taller and has a nine-inch reach advantage. She should be able to use that to her benefit against this level of competition.
Best bet: Ernesta Kareckaite moneyline (-275)
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (-225) vs Bruno Lopes (+185)
Gazhiyasulov’s two Octagon wins have come against two of the worst UFC fighters of 2024 (Brendson Ribeiro and Jose Medina). His unanimous decision wins over them took his pro record to 8-0. He doesn’t have many fights for a 31-year-old. But, that’s because he spent a long time in the amateur scene, through the IMMAF.
Lopes is coming off a technical knockout win on Contender Series.
Gadzhiyasulov has used his wrestling to bail him out of fights he was losing on the feet. Lopes has good submissions. But, his one professional loss is a technical knockout against the aforementioned Ribeiro on Contender Series.
I’m just going to go with MMA Math on this one.
Best bet: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov moneyline (-225)
Fatima Kline (-1000) vs. Viktoriia Dudakova (+625)
This is a bizarre line. Kline — a hot-shot grappler — is a massive favorite here despite debuting with a loss to Jasmine Jasudavicius in UFC last year. Kline has a high grappling pedigree and is a champion on the regional scene, but to get -1000 odds against Dudakova is frankly amazing.
Dudakova seemed to suffer a strange mental and/or physical break in her fight with Sam Hughes in August. After winning the first round, she faded terribly and was lucky to lose by just a split decision. Prior to that, she was undefeated in three Octagon appearances.
I give the edge to Kline in this fight, but there’s no way I think she deserves to be this heavily favored (even if this is her returning to her more familiar weight class). I’m not quite at the point where I would stick my neck out for Dudakova here. I’ll just say “buyer beware” on Kline at that price.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-260)
Nurullo Aliev (-600) vs. Joe Solecki (+425)
Aliev is a big favorite I can get behind. That’s because Solecki is coming in on very short notice and on a two-fight losing skid (to Grant Dawson and Drakkar Klose).
The “Tajik Eagle” beat Rafael Alves by majority decision last year. He scored three takedowns (on four attempts) in that fight and soaked up close to eleven minutes of control time. Solecki has a 20 percent takedown defense. Dawson took him down on all three of his attempts, despite having a takedown accuracy of just 38 percent.
Best bet: Nurullo Aliev moneyline (-600)
UFC Vegas 101 Long Shots
Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 101 card …
Austin Bashi to Win by Submission in Round 2 (+1200)
The match-making and card placement here tells us that both UFC and Vegas are high on Austin Bashi’s chances of winning this bout. Vegas favors an early win for the Contender Series grad. If he matches what he did on that show, though (a second round submission) we’ll get a nice windfall.
Punahele Soriano to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 (+1800)
I was really impressed by Punahele Soriano in his Welterweight debut. I think there’s a chance he’s able to ground Medic and use that Middleweight muscle to keep him there and touch him up. If that happens, maybe Soriano will be able to get him out of there late in the fight.
Two-bet parlay: Ihor Potieria to beat Marco Tulio and Preston Parsons to beat Jacobe Smith (+2150)
Many take Potieria as a bit of a joke thanks to his previous performances (and emphatic losses). But, his opponent here is untested at this level. And Potieira looked competitive against the foul-heavy Almeida in his last bout. I don’t think it’s out of the question that Potieria is a more fundamentally sound fighter than Tulio (who has been crushing cans in Brazil for his entire career). Smith is similar to Tulio in that he has a very flashy tapology record and some sensational YouTube clips, but he’s done next to nothing in the Octagon. Preston Parsons is no world beater, but he’s been in the trenches at this level. If he and Potieria can out last the untested Tulio and Smith, there’s a hefty prize available.
Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.
LIVE! Stream UFC Vegas 101 On ESPN+
STRAWWEIGHT SHOWDOWN! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads back to its APEX venue in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., Jan. 11, 2025, with an important 115-pound main event featuring jiu-jitsu phenom Mackenzie Dern, who looks to avenge her 2019 loss to Brazilian bruiser Amanda Ribas. In addition, longtime welterweight slugger Santiago Ponzinibbio returns to face off against “Mocambique” mauler Carlston Harris in UFC Vegas 101’s hard-hitting co-headliner.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 101 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 101: “Dern vs. Ribas 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
