Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 101 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Jan. 11, 2025) on ESPN+ from inside APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC Vegas 101 features a strawweight main event between Top 10 title contenders Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas, a five-round rematch with major title implications for 2025 and beyond.
Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the welterweight showdown between Santiago Ponzinibbio and Carlston Harris, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Vegas 101 main card by clicking here. Get all the latest “Dern vs. Ribas 2” odds and betting props courtesy of FanDuel right here. For UFC Vegas 101 live results and play-by-play click here.
115 lbs.: Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas
Mackenzie Dern
Record: 14-5 | Age: 31 | Betting line: +170
Wins: 0 KO/TKO, 7 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 5’4” | Reach: 63” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.43 | Striking accuracy: 39%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.12 | Striking Defense: 51%
Takedown Average: 0.88 (16% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 30%
Current Ranking: No. 6 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Lupita Godinez
Amanda Ribas
Record: 13-5 | Age: 31 | Betting line: -205
Wins: 4 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’3“ | Reach: 66” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.63 | Striking accuracy: 40%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.40 | Striking Defense: 61%
Takedown Average: 2.07 (51% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 85%
Current Ranking: No. 8 | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Rose Namajunas
The first thing we always look at when breaking down a rematch, is what has changed since the initial encounter that supports a different outcome. Otherwise, in television terms, it’s just a rerun. UFC strawweight sensation, Mackenzie Dern, has not been exceptional inside the Octagon but does have some intangible qualities that endears her to fight fans. It also helps that she draws praise from UFC CEO, Dana White, for being a “little badass,” whatever that means.
So what’s changed?
Dern dropped a unanimous decision to Ribas at UFC Tampa back in 2019, marking the first loss of her professional MMA career. In the five years that followed, Dern compiled a 7-4 record to keep herself afloat in the Top 10 of the strawweight rankings, where she’s currently seated two spots above Ribas at No. 7. Her most recent outing returned a unanimous decision victory over Loopy Godinez at UFC Abu Dhabi on ABC.
“I feel like I was such a different person back then, I didn’t even feel like it was me,” Dern during the UFC Vegas 101 media day (watch it here). “My overhand rights that I kind of threw out there I still have, the heart still there, but I feel like I’m a totally different person, and it was three rounds. I feel like we’re at totally different phases of our careers. I’ve evolved in striking, in wrestling, in takedowns, and just so much experience.”
Dern has gone seven fights without locking up a submission.
“Going back, I fought like Jessica (Andrade), Amanda Lemos, and all these girls that punch harder than Amanda (Ribas),” Dern continued. “Obviously, if any punch lands on the right spot, you can still get knocked out, but it’s a different type of confidence for me going into this fight now five years later than four months after my daughter was born and taking a little while off.”
Ribas also jumped out to a fast start with UFC, winning her first three fights and gaining some notoriety for defeating both Dern and the promotion’s other “it” girl, Paige VanZant. Unfortunately, the Brazilian was unable to parlay that success into a 115-pound title run, coming up short against some of the bigger names in the division, like Marina Rodriguez and Rose Namajunas, among others.
Suffering two losses by technical knockout didn’t help her cause, either.
“I know this fight is really important because we both won against Virna Jandiroba and she’s No. 3 (in the UFC rankings),” Ribas said during the UFC Vegas 101 media day (watch it here). “So we know how huge and important this fight is because I think if I win, if God blesses me with the win, I can go to the top. I believe on that because I’m coming from two wins in the strawweight division, and we both fight against Virna and she is No. 3 (in the division).”
“Maybe if I win, with a good win, I can go to be (backup fighter) for the belt, or maybe fight against Virna again,” Ribas continued. “I think to move the category, Zhang Weili, if she wins, I’m here. No more rematches. There are other girls. I think (Virna) needs to wait for the winner of this fight (to get a title shot), because we both deserve that, too.”
Dern has yet to finish a fight by way of knockout in 19 trips to the cage. It’s not an exaggeration to suggest she has some of the worst striking in the sport, let alone the division, though she’s able to compensate for her shortcomings with a world-class jiu-jitsu game. That said, there is no Plan B for Dern, who was 0-6 in takedown attempts in her first fight against Ribas.
The Brazilian was 2-2.
Ribas is no Floyd Mayweather on the feet but she’s faster than Dern, strikes at a higher volume, and has better success on the counters — perfectly suited for the bumrushing offense of her APEX opponent. Assuming Dern had a bad night the first time they fought, I’m not sure a good night would be enough to land her the victory, especially considering Ribas is an accomplished ground fighter who toys with 275-pound meatheads. Unless the Brazilian gets sloppy and gift wraps an arm, expect more of the same on Saturday night.
Prediction: Ribas def. Dern by decision
170 lbs.: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris
Santiago “Argentine Dagger” Ponzinibbio
Record: 29-8 | Age: 38 | Betting line: -120
Wins: 16 KO/TKO, 6 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 4 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 4 DEC
Height: 6’0“ | Reach: 73” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.74 | Striking accuracy: 41%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.55 | Striking Defense: 61%
Takedown Average: 0.59 (32% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 66%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Split decision loss to Muslim Salikhov
Carlston “Mocambique” Harris
Record: 19-6 | Age: 37 | Betting line: +100
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 6 SUB, 8 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 6’0“ | Reach: 76” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.18 | Striking accuracy: 49%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.66 | Striking Defense: 52%
Takedown Average: 1.97 (29% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 55%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Knockout loss to Kalinn Williams
There was a time in the not-too-distant past when Santiago Ponzinibbio was ranked No. 7 at 170 pounds and thought to be one or two big wins away from a crack at the welterweight crown. Then came a two-year layoff as a result of injuries and a return fight that ended with a knockout loss to Jingliang Li. It’s pretty much been all downhill from there, as the “Argentine Dagger” has dropped five of his last seven and is currently unranked in the division Top 15 (see the full rankings here).
A run of bad luck and a couple of super-close decisions? Perhaps…
“We’re competing one time a year, two times a year, and when you don’t have the result that you want,” Ponzinibbio told UFC.com. “There is so much work behind that, and you need to win for so long, and then you go there again (and lose). It sucks, but this is competition and it is what it is, so you have to adjust as much as you can for the next one. Every loss is terrible. Every loss — I can’t talk for other people, but for me, it’s a lot; I’m pretty pissed off. We put so much on the line, we’re working so hard, and especially when they’re coming by split decision — it’s been three times in my last four of five fights.”
It’s worth noting that Ponzinibbio was slept by Kevin Holland at UFC 287 in early 2023.
Carlston Harris is also unranked at 170 pounds and has not competed since getting creamed by Kalinn Williams at UFC Vegas 92 in May 2024. “Mocambique” is 4-2 since migrating to UFC in early 2021 and three of his four victories have come by way of knockout or submission. He’s also been stopped in half of his losses, leaving him with a very “live by the sword” style of fighting. From a fan’s perspective, I’m kind of hoping Harris and Ponzinibbio just march forward and throw bombs until someone collapses, but it sounds like Harris is aware of the dangers inherent with that kind of reckless offense.
“I never refuse a fight,” Harris said during the UFC Vegas 101 media day (watch it here). “I mean, for me, it’s just another working day, man. It don’t matter who they offer me. I will always accept. If I’m not injured, I will always accept a challenge, any challenge. I’m expecting the best Santiago ever, you know? His losses, you have to look at the names that he fought. It don’t mean nothing, man. He’s still dangerous. When you step in the cage, you have to give the fans what they want to see, man. I mean, Santiago has a very aggressive style like myself. It’s a good matchup for the fans.”
Ponzinibbio is 38 and Harris is 37, I and don’t think we’re going to see anything on Saturday night that we haven’t already seen. In this case, that’s a good thing, because the main event is probably going all five rounds with little-to-no fireworks. I don’t know how long this three-round co-headliner is going to last, but these two combatants have combined for eight post-fight performance bonuses. Ponzinibbio has not looked the same since his debilitating Staph infection — one that almost ended his career — but he can still hit like a ton of bricks. Harris will no doubt be game and fans should expect a couple of back-and-forth moments, right up until the “Argentine Dagger” drops the curtain late in the opening frame.
Prediction: Ponzinibbio def. Harris by knockout
Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 101 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.
LIVE! Stream UFC Vegas 101 On ESPN+
STRAWWEIGHT SHOWDOWN! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads back to its APEX venue in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., Jan. 11, 2025, with an important 115-pound main event featuring jiu-jitsu phenom Mackenzie Dern, who looks to avenge her 2019 loss to Brazilian bruiser Amanda Ribas. In addition, longtime welterweight slugger Santiago Ponzinibbio returns to face off against “Mocambique” mauler Carlston Harris in UFC Vegas 101’s hard-hitting co-headliner.
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 101 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 101 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here. For the updated and finalized “Dern vs. Ribas 2” fight card and ESPN+ lineup click here.
