UFC Vegas 102 goes down this weekend (Sat., Feb., 15, 2025) at UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. The ESPN+-streamed main event stars top-ten Middleweight Jared Cannonier. He’ll be looking to hold his ranking against the rising Gregory Rodrigues aka ‘Robo Cop’.
Our co-main event at UFC Vegas 102 has streaking Featherweight Youssef Zalal (3-0 and all finishes since returning to UFC) taking on tough veteran Calvin Kattar. Also on the main card is Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Dylan Budka, Ismael Bonfim vs. Nazim Sadykhov, Rodolfo Vieira vs. Andre Petroski and Connor Matthews vs. Jose Delgado.
UFC Vegas 102’s “Prelims” are headlined by Angela Hill vs. Ketlen Souza. The Prelims also have Jacqueline Cavalcanti, trying to stay undefeated in UFC, when she meets Julia Avila. The Prelims also have the other Bonfim brother, Gabriel Bonfim, fighting Khaos Williams. And there’s also the other Walker brother, Valter Walker, fighting Don’Tale Mayes. Walker survived an angry mob to make it to this fight.
Let’s checkout the money lines on “Cannonier vs.Robo Cop” and all the other bouts on the card …
UFC Vegas 102 Main Card Money Line Odds
Jared Cannonier (+180) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (-220)
Is time finally catching up to the 40-year-old Jared Cannonier?
He looked good against Nassourdine Imavov, last summer, leading him on the scorecards before getting stunned with a big punch. The fight was waved off early, but Imavov was trending upwards and would have possibly secured the finish moments later had Jason Herzog not stepped in. A few months later Cannonier fought Caio Borralho and lost a unanimous decision. He earned Fight of the Night honours in that fight for a spirited and gritty display. He did get hurt a few times in that fight, though.
While Cannonier remains a very competitive top ranked Middleweight, he is starting to get caught more often with big shots. And, though we’ve not seen him knocked out, he’s been wobbled a few times in these last few fights.
If his speed and chin are trending down, then Gregory Rodrigues might be a nightmare match-up for him,
Robo Cop has five KO/TKO wins at Middleweight. That leads the division, tied with Robert Whittaker, Israel Adesanya and Roman Kopylov. Rodrigues is also top ten in Middleweight knockdowns landed (8) and knockdown average per 15 mins (0.75).
Cannonier has good significant striking defense, at 56%, but he still absorbs 4.39 sig. strikes per minute. That’s higher than average and only marginally lower than the amount of sig. strikes he lands per minute.
Against Borralho he absorbed 153 significant strikes and only landed 83. That’s the worst striking differential of his career. His defense was 32% in that fight.
Rodrigues doesn’t pour on strikes (just 45 sig. strikes landed in his decision win over Christian Leroy Duncan last time out), but he’s very accurate with his striking. His average accuracy is 56%, which is tenth highest in the division.
Rodrigues accuracy, and power, has me thinking that he’ll hurt Cannonier in this fight. Though he might not be able to stop the incredibly tough Cannonier, he’ll probably wobble him and win rounds as a result.
Rodrigues’ power punching, and finishes like he scored over Chidi Njokuani (see it here), make it easy to forget that Rodrigues is an elite grappler, too. He lands 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes. This skill should help him out when Cannonier pushes forwards and tries to make things ugly along the fence.
Rodrigues showed us his wrestling and grappling in his fight with Duncan and he seemed to take a lot of pride in that. He was candid about saying he wanted to show he was a well rounded fighter and not someone who just plays rock ‘em sock ‘em robots.
I think we might see Rodrigues’ intelligence in this fight, too. This is his biggest opportunity to date and I think he’ll want the win (and top ten ranking) more than he wants a highlight reel KO and a POTN bonus. This has me leaning towards this fight going long and maybe even to a decision.
Vegas doesn’t agree with me. The round total is set at 2.5 with the over at +105. I like that bet a lot.
Rodrigues to win by KO/TKO/DQ is just +100. Decision is +500! Fight to go the Distance is also +250.
Ultimately, though, I’m going with the point spread and getting Rodrigues -9.5 at -160. This covers me if Rodrigues dominates, sensibly, for five rounds (as I suspect he will) or if he connects with a big punch that wobbles Cannonier enough that he can’t come back from it.
Best bet: Gregory Rodrigues -9.5 (-160)
Calvin Kattar (+325) vs. Youssef Zalal (-450)
Youssef Zalal has looked slick since returning to UFC. He was released by the promotion in 2022 after amassing a 3-3-1 record, including losses to Ilia Topuria and Sean Woodson (both by decision). He was re-signed as a short notice opponent for Billy Quarantillo last March. He grabbed that opportunity with both hands, tapping out Quarantillo with a rear naked choke (see that here).
Zalal has since submitted, via RNC, Jarno Errens and Jack Shore. In all these wins, his back-taking ability has looked sensational. His killer instinct, in pouncing on chokes as soon as they became available, has also been notable. This recent form has him as the big favorite over Calvin Kattar.
Kattar, who turns 37 next month, is 1-3 since his historic beatdown at the hands of Max Holloway. He’s lost his last three including a split decision to Josh Emmett, an injury TKO to Arnold Allen (see it here) and a unanimous decision to Aljamain Sterling.
Historically, Kattar has had good takedown defense. His overall mark stands at plus 70%. However, last time out he gave up 8 of 13 takedowns to Sterling and a whopping 10:43 of control time. This was Sterling’s first fight since moving up to Featherweight, by the way.
Zalal’s wrestling game, and back-taking prowess, is reminiscent of Sterling. However, where Sterling favors position over submission, Zalal is a neck-hunter. This could mean that he gets his rear naked choke finish early (or it could mean that he exhausts himself going for it, stifled by a wily vet, and then fades down the stretch).
Given the recent form, though, I have to favor Zalal and believe he’s going to spend a lot of time on top of Kattar and will probably get that submission win. Zalal is no slouch on the feet, though, so even if he can’t get his Plan A to work, he still has a pretty good Plan B (mixing effective striking with takedowns).
Zalal to win by submission +275. The fight to end in submission is +250. Might as well take that just in case there’s a slither of a chance that Kattar ends up getting the tap in this one.
Best bet: Fight to end via Submission (+250)
Edmen Shahbazyan (-390) vs. Dylan Budka (+290)
Edmen Shahbazyan is currently on a 2-5 run. He hurt Gerald Meerschaert early in his last fight, but then gassed out and was overwhelmed for a submission loss in the second round (see it here). It’s a similar story that we’ve seen from Shahbazyan, who has also been stopped by Anthony Hernandez (see it here), Nassourdine Imavov (see it here) and Derek Brunson (see it here).
He’s been given a big step down in competition this week, in the form of Dylan Budka. Budka was out wrestled by Andre Petroski in his last fight, losing by decision. Budka also came in heavy for that. His UFC debut was a TKO loss to Cesar Almeida (see it here).
Shahbazyan should be able to stop the bleeding on his UFC career against Budka, right?
He lands three times the amount of significant strikes per minute that Budka does (he also absorbs them at around that clip) and has 50% striking accuracy. He has decent takedown defense, too, which will be handy since Budka is primarily a wrestler.
Shahbazyan’s issues feel more mental than anything else. If he paces himself and has a smart game-plan (something along the lines of jab Budka to death) he should win. But we’ve seen him throw away fights enough times that everything has to be a doubt with him.
I’m still picking him in this fight, since Budka has shown us very little thus far. But I’m also focused on the round total more than picking a winner.
The round total for this fight is 1.5 rounds. The under is -180. I think you need to believe Shahbazyan gets it done quickly to take that. The over is +140. And I’m liking that. I think Shahbazyan wins this, but I don’t trust him to steam roll over a lesser name at this point in his career. If he’s smart he might use this as an opportunity to try and pace himself and control a fight from start to finish, trying to experience what it feels like to go deep in a fight without being hurt.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+140)
Ismael Bonfim (-200) vs. Nazim Sadykhov (+170)
Ismael Bonfim’s last fight was a decision win over Vinc Pichel. That saw the Brazilian rebound from his submission loss to Benoit Saint-Denis (see that here). That loss was Bonfim’s first in the promotion and his fourth overall. His previous loss was all the way back in Jungle Fights in 2014, when he was submitted by Renato Moicano. One of his other pro losses was to former ONE Champ Adriano Moraes, in Bonfim’s second ever fight.
Nazim Sadykhov earned a Fight of the Night majority draw opposite Viacheslav Borshchev in his last contest. That was all the way back in 2023. Before that he submitted Terrance McKinney (see it here).
This is a close fight and it could be a lot of fun. Both guys like to throw down, with Bonfim a little more accurate and Sadykhov a little more explosive. Sadykhov has the edge when it comes to wrestling fundamentals.
I sense a finish in this fight and that’s what’s going to steer my betting here.
The round total for this one is 2.5 rounds and I think that’s high. The under is +124. The over is -160. These are guys who hunt for finishes and I think we’ll see this thing wrapped up sometime in the second round.
Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+124)
Rodolfo Vieira (-240) vs. Andre Petroski (+195)
Rodolfo Vieira came into UFC with a decent amount of hype, being one of the most decorated BJJ black-belts to step into the Octagon (certainly in the modern era). He won his first two, predictably by submission, but was then surprised by Anthony Hernandez in 2021. Hernandez submitted him (see it here), signalling that ‘Fluffy’ would grow into one of the more feared men in the division.
Since then Vieira has gone 4-1, submitting all his opponents. That blemish is thanks to Chris Curtis, who was able to box him up for three rounds.
Curtis showed us that Vieira’s not all the way there on striking. Andre Petroski will be hoping to show that Vieira’s not all the way there on defensive wrestling and that his top control game is good enough to pin him down and avoid submission attempts off Vieira’s back (something he’s yet to win with in UFC).
Petroski’s wrestling attack has lead to back-to-back decision wins over Dylan Budka and Josh Fremd. He’s been hurt on the feet, though, losing by TKO to Jacob Malkoun (see it here) and Michel Pereira (see it here).
Vieira’s takedown defense is 100 percent. That’s mostly down to how few takedowns he’s had to defend, though. Not many guys have thought taking Vieira to the ground was a good gameplan. The only person who tried, and failed, was Dustin Stoltzfus.
I think Petroski will go for takedowns in this fight (he has to — his striking is as raw as Vieira’s). The big question will be whether he can win rounds on the canvas and not get stopped.
Vieira does his best work from top control, but I think his best chance of getting that is with sweeps. His takedown accuracy is terrible at 30% (he went 0-20 against Chris Curtis). Petroski sports a very good 80% takedown defense.
I think the ground games might cancel each other out in this fight, with long periods of Petroski on top in Vieira’s closed guard. We won’t have crowd pressure to stand them up in the APEX, so I think we’re going to watch a low intensity ground battle for the entire 15 minutes.
Vegas thinks the opposite is going to happen, setting their round total at 1.5. However, the odds are -195 on the over, suggesting the public have hammered that line. That’s where I’m going with my best bet, too.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-195)
Connor Matthews (+250) vs. Jose Delgado (-310)
Connor Matthews has been out for almost a year. The last time we saw him he was flattened by a Dennis Buzukja left hook. That was his first UFC fight post Contender Series.
Jose Delgado is fresh off Contender Series. He won with a KO during his appearance there.
It’s hard to have much of a read on a fight like this, with two guys having such little top level exposure. Delgado is more active and he’s coming off a KO win, not a KO loss. So I’ll pick him.
Best bet: Jose Delgado moneyline (-310)
UFC Vegas 102 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Angela Hill (-110) vs. Ketlen Souza (-110)
Angela Hill lost to Tabatha Ricci last time out. She put on a fun fight and proved that, even at 40 years-old, she’s still got some snap to her punches. That loss spoiled a little winning streak Overkill had going. Previously she submitted Luana Pinheiro (see that collector’s item here) and decisioned Denise Gomes.
Ketlen Souza is coming off a huge win at last year’s Noche UFC at Sphere. She rocked Yazmin Jauregui and then choked her out (see it here), as a +380 underdog. That followed a decision victory over Marnic Mann. Souza is now 2-1 in UFC, having lost her debut to a Karine Silva kneebar (see it here).
This is going to be a kickboxing match. Hill has made her career on winning close striking-only battles. And she remains very assured, technical, and capable of pulling out a win over most in the division.
Souza is less technical, but more powerful. She’s a brawler. In the past Hill was very good at making fighters like her miss. But I wonder if we’ll finally see age catch up to her here. If it does, she might take some damage.
Souza is not the most disciplined fighter on the planet. She can rush and over commit if things aren’t going her way. Again, a prime Hill, could have feasted on such impetuousness.
I think the advantage lies with Souza in this match-up, due to her youth, power and aggressiveness (which can sway judges in these types of fights). But I don’t want to count out Hill entirely.
Over 2.5 rounds feels like a lock, but it’s -560. That will probably end up in a lot of parlays. I’ll begrudgingly pick the Souza moneyline as my best bet. Closer to fight time there will probably be an option to bet “ends in split or majority decision”. That might have plus odds, so that’s where I would go if that option were available now.
Best bet: Ketlen Souza moneyline (-110)
Rafael Estevam (-400) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+300)
Rafael Estevam is one of the biggest favorites on the card. That’s despite his last fight happening in November, 2023. He beat Charles Johnson that night, though he did miss weight. The Nova Uniao man will be looking to make Flyweight again in this return fight.
Jesus Aguilar missed weight for his last fight, too. That was at UFC 305 in August. That night he choked Stewart Nicoll unconscious with a nasty guillotine (see it here). That moved him to 3-1 in UFC, with the only loss being a submission defeat to Tatsuro Taira.
I’m always skeptical of big favorites who have been out of action for over a year. If Estevam didn’t have such a commanding size advantage in this fight, I’d be tempted to fade him.
He’s a very big Flyweight and he stands four inches taller than Aguilar. Estevam also has a seven inch reach advantage. Estevam has shown he’s pretty good at mixing his striking and grappling. Aguilar is diverse, too, but I think the size disparity is just too great for this to be competitive.
Best bet: Rafael Estevam moneyline (-400)
Vince Morales (+155) vs. Elijah Smith (-185)
Vince Morales was re-signed by UFC for UFC Paris in September. There he fought, and lost a decision to, Taylor Lapilus. That was his first time in the Octagon since losing to Miles Johns in 2022.
Elijah Smith is the son of former UFC/TUF fighter Gilbert Smith. The 22 year-old came through Contender Series in September, taking a decision over Aaron Tau.
I think a lot of the odds here have to do with Smith being 12 years younger than Morales. He’s also got some height, and a little bit of reach, over him.
Smith is a takedown artist. He went 5-11 in takedowns against Tau. Morales has decent takedown defense, but I don’t think he’ll have the stamina to keep up with a sustained wrestling attack.
Best bet: Elijah Smith moneyline (-185)
Valter Walker (-220) vs. Don’Tale Mayes (+180)
Valter Walker, younger brother of Johnny Walker, scored his first UFC win in his last fight. That came against Junior Tafa, younger brother of Justin Tafa. Walker got Tafa into a heel hook and the fight was called off due a verbal submission. The fight ending looked legit to me, but Tafa had issues with it and he tried to initiate a brawl after the fact.
Don’Tale Mayes lost to Shamil Gaziev in his last fight. Before that he beat Caio Machado (who is no longer with UFC).
Mayes lack of athleticism is catching up with him now and his fights have become a real chore to get through. The younger Walker is a decent sized favorite here, for his age and size. I think a little bit of the ‘unknown factor’ is working in his favor, too.
I think he takes Mayes down in this one. And Mayes still doesn’t know how to get up off his back.
Best bet: Valter Walker moneyline (-220)
Julia Avila (+375) vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-550)
Julia Avila is back after two years on the sidelines. Her last UFC appearance was a submission loss to Miesha Tate (see that here). Avila has suffered from poor activity in her UFC career and has only been able to make the walk to the Octagon five times in six years.
Jacqueline Cavalcanti is a good prospect in this division. She’s coming off two split decision wins (over Nora Cornolle and Josiane Nunes), but I scored both those fights more comfortably for Cavalcanti than the ringside judges did. Those wins have her 3-0 in UFC and 8-1 on her career.
It’s really hard to know what Avila is going to look like on Saturday night. But I’m pretty confident the bigger, younger and more active Cavalcanti is going to show up and be very eager to go 4-0 in the Octagon.
Cavalcanti excels at counter punching. A timid Avila who doesn’t come forwards might prove a bit of a challenge for her. But I really don’t think we’ll see a massive upset in this bout.
Best bet: Jacqueline Cavalcanti moneyline (-550)
Gabriel Bonfim (-220) vs. Khaos Williams (+180)
Khaos Williams starched Carlson Harris in his last fight. That was good for a Performance of the Night bonus (his fourth).
Gabriel Bonfim is coming off a unanimous decision win over Ange Loosa. Prior to that he was upset by Nicolas Dalby (see that KO here), while fighting as a -650 favorite.
Bonfim’s submissions demand respect (75% of wins come via submission). But I’m surprised to see him as the favorite in this match-up. A lot of that surprise comes from the fact that Williams will have a five inch reach advantage in the fight.
Bonfim will be hoping to take Williams down before Williams can land one of his destroyer punches. Williams has good takedown defense, though (80%). And we just saw him take out the grapple-first Harris before Harris could threaten him with takedowns and BJJ.
That recent experience, and his fight changing/ending power, has me picking the underdog in this tilt.
Best bet: Khaos Williams moneyline (+180)
Jared Gordon (-285) vs. Mashrabjon Ruziboev (+230)
Jared Gordon was supposed to fight Kaue Fernandes on Saturday. However, Fernandes pulled out. With a few days to spare UFC has drafted in Mashrabjon Ruziboev. Ruziboev is the brother of Nursulton Ruziboev (last seen losing a main event to Joaquin Buckley). He’s 28 and yet to fight outside of Eurasia.
Gordon is coming off a split decision loss to Nasrat Haqparast. In his previous fight he melted Mark Madsen (see it here).
Ruziboev last fought in 2023, as a Welterweight. This fight is at Lightweight, which is a division he’s fought in plenty of times before.
Still, I’m going to fade the short notice and inactive fighter here.
Best bet: Jared Gordon moneyline (-285)
UFC Vegas 102 Long Shots
Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 102 card …
Gregory Rodrigues to win by submission, round 4 (+5000)
Gregory Rodrigues can crack, but his grappling is extremely high level. He’s the man Alex Pereira hand-picked to get him ready for Magomed Ankalaev’s ground-game. Rodrigues is yet to get a submission in UFC (he has four on his career), so he might be due! If this fight goes long, which I suspect it will, it will probably be because Rodrigues is deciding not to just stand and bang with Cannonier. If Rodrigues is utilizing his wrestling and BJJ then I think it’s possible he taps Cannonier.
Youssef Zalal to win by first round submission (+1800)
I’m really sold on Youssef Zalal’s second act. He’s stormed through the competition thus far and he’s been given a great match-up here. Calvin Kattar is a solid name at the tail end of his career. I don’t think Zalal will miss this opportunity to throw himself up the rankings and ignite a conversation regarding a future rematch with Ilia Topuria.
Three-bet parlay: Khaos Williams, Ketlen Souza, Nazim Sadykhov (+1291)
Two slight underdogs and a pick’em make for a decent price in this parlay. All of these fighters are bangers and I like each of them in their respective match-ups because of the power advantage I think they have.
Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.
LIVE! Stream UFC Vegas 102 On ESPN+
MIDDLEWEIGHT MAYHEM! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads back to its APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., Feb. 15, 2025, with an important 185-pound main event featuring former division title challenger, Jared Cannonier, taking on Brazilian knockout artist, Gregory Rodrigues. In addition, well-traveled “Boston Finisher,” Calvin Kattar, looks to derail the hype train of “Moroccan Devil,” Youssef Zalal, in UFC 102’s hard-hitting co-headliner.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 102 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 102: “Cannonier vs. Robo Cop” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
