They looked old, they looked slow, and most importantly, they looked nothing like a team that could contend for an NBA championship in 2024-25.
Through their first 10 games, the Milwaukee Bucks were 2-8 and second-to-last in the lowly Eastern Conference.
Then, seemingly out of nowhere, everything changed.
In their last 14 games, the Bucks are 11-3 with the fifth-best net rating in the Eastern Conference during that time, and they are only one win away from the NBA Cup finale.
The thing about sports is they aren’t like movies. Things don’t happen “seemingly out of nowhere.” Improvements require changes in personnel, coaching, scheme, etc.
And while there is a myriad of factors that can be attributed to the Bucks’ in-season turnaround, the biggest one, or should we say, the biggest two, are Andre Jackson Jr. and A.J. Green.
Jackson Jr. went from being a fringe rotation player in the Bucks’ first 10 games (even logging one DNP-CD) to being a starter in the last 14.
When we checked on the Bucks this time last Christmas, we pinpointed their need for a stout perimeter defender to fill the void left by Jrue Holiday. At the time, the answer to that riddle appeared to be MarJon Beauchamp. But now it is clear that his understudy was the better choice.
Jackson is a freak athlete with an odometer that’s been jailbroken so that it never hits empty. His energy is the heartbeat that the defense thrives on, making him the perfect player to insert into your starting lineup and set the tone for the night.
Jitterbug defenders typically use their excess energy to roam around the court and wreak havoc. Jackson is no anomaly in this regard, posting a steal rate that sits in the 74th percentile league wide. This is a huge boost for a Bucks team that struggles to create turnovers (27th in the NBA in turnover rate).
Jackson’s pogo stick kicks and near 6-foot-10 wingspan also enable him to offer what every team wants from their defensive-first wing: secondary rim protection. On the season, Jackson ranks in the 88th percentile in defensive DRIP and players are shooting 10.2% worse than expected on shots within 6 feet of the rim contested by Jackson (89th percentile).
Overall, the Bucks are 5.9 points stingier per 100 possessions when Jackson is on the court (114.3 defensive rating) than when he is on the bench (120.2).
Unfortunately, Jackson’s limitations as an offensive player (namely as a shooter – 21st percentile in 3-point volume) make it hard to delegate a ton of minutes to him. For instance, in their NBA Cup contest against the Orlando Magic, Jackson was limited to just 8 minutes of action because the Magic literally weren’t guarding him and instead using his man to get extra help in the paint (a tactic that is commonly deployed against below-average shooters).
That’s what makes Green especially important to this Bucks team. After only playing 15.6 minutes per game in the first 10, Green is averaging 24.8 minutes in the last 14.
Teams may be able to sag off Jackson, but they are cooked if they try that on Green. Of the 70 players who have played at least 15 games and take at least 10 3s per 100 possessions, Green is second in 3-point percentage (47.5%) behind only the scorching-hot Norman Powell (48.6%).
Green has also unlocked the no-dip jumper badge, meaning that he only needs a sliver of space to unleash his deadly weapon.
Green’s shooting pairs well with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard because he can make opponents pay when they allocate too many resources toward trying to stop them.
But remember, in basketball, you can only play five players at once. For the Bucks, they are going to want their Big Four (Antetokounmpo, Lillard, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton) to be featured in most closing lineups. So, ideally, you want that fifth guy to give you great perimeter defense and great spacing.
This is what makes Green (potentially) the role player the Bucks have been searching for over the last year plus. His shooting makes him a premier spacer, and while he’s not at Jackson’s level (yet), Green is becoming quite the defender.
Green isn’t a bandit in the passing lanes (26th percentile in steal rate) or a help side hero (sixth percentile in block rate). His specialty is defending on the ball. Once an easy target that teams would mercilessly hunt in isolation. Green now draws the opponent’s fiercest perimeter scorers.
Look here as Green mirrors the movements of Cole Anthony (the best creator on the floor for the Magic) all throughout the court before offering an effective contest:
Green is still far from an elite point-of-attack stopper. For instance, his over-aggressive technique can leave him out of control and vulnerable to cheap fouls and savvy step-back jumpers.
Still, he may have become good enough in this area to be the exact player the Bucks have been starving for. In the last 14 games, the Bucks have a plus-7.3 net rating (a 61-win pace) when Green is on the floor.
Only five times in the last 40 years has a team that started as slow as the Bucks have through the quarter mark of the season gone on to win the NBA title. Four of those five teams made a big trade/coaching change midway through the season (which is not something the Bucks seem primed to do).
As it stands, the Bucks look more like a team that’ll be lucky to clinch a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference than one that will seriously challenge for the ultimate prize.
But still, that’s a much better position than they were in before they started putting their faith in Jackson and Green.
Enjoy this? Check out our NBA, NFL, college basketball, FBS and FCS coverage. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.
