We look ahead to the action with our Wales Six Nations preview. After the disappointment of last year, can the Welsh stop the rot and avoid the Wooden Spoon in 2025?
It’s fair to say that 2024 wasn’t exactly a vintage year from a Welsh perspective. In the Six Nations they finished bottom of the pile and collected the Wooden Spoon for just the second time since Italy joined the Championship and for the first time since 2003.
It didn’t get much better from there, with Wales going on to lose their remaining six games of the year. It culminated in three disappointing Autumn Nations Series defeats, which included a first ever home defeat to Fiji and heavy losses to Australia and South Africa.
That all meant that Wales lost every game in a calendar year for the first time since 1937, when they only played three Test matches. In fact, in the professional era, only once before has any Tier 1 team lost 100% of their games in a calendar year, with Italy doing so in 2020 (L8).
For Welsh rugby, it’s better to look forward than to dwell on the past. Could the 2025 Six Nations spark a new, successful era for Welsh rugby?
Playing Style
With so many new faces in the Wales squad over the last year it feels like Warren Gatland’s side haven’t quite nailed down a definitive style of play yet. In possession, they’ve opted to keep their play tight, with only France (45%) playing with at least 10 metres width from a lower percentage of their attacking phases than Wales (49%).
This is backed up by Wales’ carrying profile. Overall, 38% of their carries in last year’s Six Nations were one-out drives, the highest rate of any team. With another 9% coming from pick and go carries, it meant that almost half (47%) of Wales’ carries came either directly from the base of the ruck, or within one pass from the breakdown.
Wales aren’t afraid to take the aerial route to try and gain ground. In the 2024 Six Nations, a tournament-high 15% of their kicks from hand came in the form of an up-and-under as they looked to get their wingers chasing and winning the ball back for some quick gains.
We can expect that tactic to continue with the new ‘escorting’ laws in place to stop defenders blocking the path of players chasing a high ball.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Perhaps one of Wales’ biggest assets isn’t out on the pitch, but in the coaches’ box, in the form of Warren Gatland and his long-time assistant, Rob Howley. While he hasn’t been immune to criticism following the Principality’s woeful 2024, Gatland’s experience will undoubtedly be beneficial to what is a young and fresh Welsh squad this year. Wales’ opener against France will be Gatland’s 71st Six Nations match as head coach (including 10 with Ireland), putting him 31 ahead of the coach with the second most (Bernard Laporte – 40).
Wales’ workrate in defence of late has been impressive, racking up over 200 completed tackles in each of their final two Autumn Nations Series fixtures against Australia and South Africa. In fact, only Italy (164) averaged more tackles per game among Tier 1 nations than Wales (160) across 2024.
This tenacity in defence has also been notable in their turnover numbers. Italy (6.6) were the only team to average more turnovers per game than Wales (5.4) in last year’s Six Nations.
For all their work without the ball though, Wales haven’t been effective when in possession. They were the only team to gain fewer then three metres per carry in last year’s Championship (2.6) as well as the only side to cross the gainline from fewer than half of their carries (47%), figures which Gatland will want to see rise drastically this time around.
Star Players
As disappointing as Wales have been lately, as ever, there’s still a sprinkling of players with world-class potential scattered across the squad.
One of Wales’ few shining lights in last year’s wooden spoon campaign was Tommy Reffell, who’s tally of 11 turnovers won was the joint-most by any player in a single edition of the men’s Championship, alongside John Barclay for Scotland in 2011. Unfortunately for Reffell though, the return of Welsh captain Jac Morgan is likely to see his playing opportunities limited.
Morgan completed 27 and 28 tackles in his two Autumn Nations Series Starts, the two highest tallies of any Six Nations player in November, and in a Wales side which has struggled to retain the ball for long periods, his workrate in defence will be crucial in keeping games tight.
Dafydd Jenkins made history as Welsh captain in his own right last year, becoming the youngest ever person to captain any nation in a Six Nations fixture when he led Wales out against Scotland in Round 1. At just 21 years and 60 days old, he was over two years younger than the previous record holder, a certain Sam Warburton, who went on to become one of Wales’ greatest ever servants. Big boots to fill.
Jenkins ranked third for both tackles (17.4) and turnover-winning tackles (0.6) per 80 minutes among the 150 Tier 1 players to feature for 400+ minutes in 2024, and with time on his side, could well improve on those already impressive figures in 2025.
In the backline, Josh Adams will be hoping to recapture the form which led him to Lions selection in 2021, having gone tryless across the last two Six Nations campaigns. There’s been promising signs that he may be returning to his best on the club scene, having scored three tries in two Challenge Cup appearances for Cardiff this season, and if Wales want to turn narrow losses into victories, they could definitely do with some of that Adams magic of old.
Ultimately though, much will depend on how quickly their potential future stars can acclimatise themselves on the Six Nations stage, with half of their 34-man squad sitting on just 10 caps or fewer.
Will Wales Win the Six Nations?
The 2024 edition saw Wales pick up their first Wooden Spoon since 2003, losing all five of their matches. The Opta supercomputer predicts Wales will finish bottom of the pile again (57% chance). They’re given a 0.2% chance of winning the whole thing.
Wales Six Nations Fixtures
Round One: 31 January – 1 February
France vs Wales – Stade de France, Paris
Round Two: 8-9 February
Italy vs Wales – Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Round Three: 22-23 February
Wales vs Ireland – Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Round Four: 8-9 March
Scotland vs Wales – Murrayfield, Edinburgh
Round Five: 15 March
Wales vs England – Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Wales Six Nations Squad
Forwards: Keiron Assiratti, James Botham, Elliot Dee, Taulupe Faletau, Dafydd Jenkins, WillGriff John, Evan Lloyd, Kemsley Mathias, Jac Morgan, Sam Parry, Tommy Reffell, Will Rowlands, Nicky Smith, Freddie Thomas, Gareth Thomas, Henry Thomas, Christ Tshiunza, Aaron Wainwright, Ben Warren, Teddy Williams.
Backs: Josh Adams, Ellis Bevan, Dan Edwards, Josh Hathaway, Eddie James, Ellis Mee, Blair Murray, Joe Roberts, Tom Rogers, Ben Thomas, Nick Tompkins, Owen Watkin, Liam Williams, Rhodri Williams, Tomos Williams.
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