Top meets bottom in Cardiff this weekend. Can Wales perform the unthinkable and dent Ireland’s title hopes? Find out in our Wales vs Ireland prediction.
The gulf between these two sides heading into Round 3 of the Men’s Six Nations could hardly be greater. Ireland, brimming with confidence, remain the only side able to complete the Grand Slam in this year’s Championship and have won 18 of their last 20 Six Nations matches.
In stark contrast, Wales are enduring their worst-ever losing run in Test rugby, having lost 14 consecutive games, including their last eight in the Six Nations.
A ninth straight defeat would represent Wales’ worst run in any iteration of the Championship, surpassing an eight-game losing streak between 1994 and 1996. However, for the first time this year, their losing run won’t dominate the pre-match build up. Instead, Warren Gatland’s departure has taken centre stage, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already turbulent period for Welsh rugby.
Fans of Welsh rugby might have felt a sense of déjà vu with that news given it’s the third time they have changed head coach midway through a Men’s Six Nations campaign. No other nation has done that even once in the Championship.
The last two occasions, in 2002 and 2006, both involved an Irish connection. Graham Henry stepped down after a heavy defeat to an Ireland team featuring current coach Simon Easterby, while Mike Ruddock left less than a year after guiding Wales to a Grand Slam, with Easterby again involved in the Irish side that hammered Wales in Round 3.
While Ireland have dominated the Six Nations in recent years, Cardiff has not always been a happy hunting ground. They have lost four of their last five Six Nations matches in the Welsh capital but did emerge victorious on their last visit. A win this weekend would mark their first back-to-back triumphs in Cardiff since their 2009 Grand Slam campaign.
Strengths
Wales have been criticised in this year’s Six Nations for being lightweight but it can’t be denied they have shown some real fight when carrying the ball into contact. Wales have gained 348 metres in contact across the opening two rounds of action, more than any other team.
The Welsh maul also found some go-forward during the last round, crossing for two tries against Italy – more than every other team combined so far (France – 1). While it’s not exactly optimal that their only source of tries this year has been the maul, if they can turn it into a real weapon it has the potential to keep Wales competitive while they rebuild their attacking game.
Ireland’s strength this year has been their ability to pile pressure upon their opponents. While only Italy (44%) have had less possession than the Irish (47%), Easterby’s side have controlled field position better than any other team, spending 56% of their time in opposition territory
That territory has seen Ireland record 22 entries into the opposition red zone this year, more than any other team, with only Italy conceding fewer 22 entries than them (12, Ireland – 15).
It’s a simple recipe – create lots of opportunities for yourself and limit opportunities for your opponents – but it is one that Ireland utilise better than any other side.
Weaknesses
For both teams, discipline has been an issue this year. Wales’ 26 penalties conceded is the highest in the tournament, with no other team surpassing 20. Worse still, they have won the fewest penalties (14), meaning they are conceding six more per game than they are earning – a significant handicap at this level.
Ireland have conceded the second most penalties of any team this year (19) but for a team that prides themselves on their accurate work at the breakdown they’ve found themselves penalised more than any other at the ruck this year (12 times).
With Wales boasting jackal threats like Tommy Reffell and Jac Morgan in their back row, Ireland’s breakdown work will need to be a lot more accurate. It may not influence the outcome of the match but Wales could well frustrate Ireland over the ball this weekend.
Fantasy Picks
Wales’ interim coach Matt Sherratt has shuffled his deck ahead of this game, so you may be able to pick up a rare bargain for this fixture. Jac Morgan remains your best option, excelling in both attack and defence
Dafydd Jenkins, Will Rowlands, Reffell and Taulupe Faletau are all solid defensive choices in what is expected to be a backs-to-the-wall effort for Wales
If you’re trailing in your fantasy leagues and need some alternative picks then someone from Wales’s back three could be an option. From an all-Scarlets selection we’re going to plump for Ellis Mee.
Mee only has five URC matches under his belt, three of which came against fellow Welsh outfits, but tries in his last two matches as well as nine defenders beaten and three breaks provide a glimpse of what he could offer if the game breaks up.
Ireland are without their skipper and top fantasy player Caelan Doris for this match, but there is no shortage of other players to pick from. James Lowe is a banker and Sam Prendergast at 10 looks a sensible choice. Dan Sheehan starts this match and will also lead the side out; no doubt he will be in 90% of teams.
Our long-shot pick from the Ireland XV is Jamie Osborne, who is down as a centre in the game. He should mop up a lot of attacking points as he marauds from full-back.
Wales vs Ireland Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Ireland overwhelming favourites, giving them a 91.3% chance of victory. Wales’ chances stand at just 8.6%, and the most likely scoreline, according to the model, is a 37-12 win for Ireland.
Barring a major shock, Ireland should continue their march towards the Grand Slam, while Wales will be left searching for positives in another difficult campaign.
Wales vs Ireland Lineups
Wales
15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Ellis Mee, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Tomos Williams, 1 Nicky Smith, 2 Elliot Dee, 3 WillGriff John, 4 Will Rowlands, 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 6 Jac Morgan, 7 Tommy Reffell, 8 Taulupe Faletau
Replacements: 16 Evan Lloyd, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Henry Thomas, 19 Teddy Williams, 20 Aaron Wainwright, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Joe Roberts
Ireland
15 Jamie Osborne, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 1 Andrew Porter, 2 Dan Sheehan, 3 Thomas Clarkson, 4 Joe McCarthy, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 7 Josh van der Flier, 8 Jack Conan
Replacements: 16 Gus McCarthy, 17 Jack Boyle, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 James Ryan, 20 Cian Prendergast, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Bundee Aki
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