We dive into the data to assess how Australia are progressing after their first year under Joe Schmidt.
The final game of the 2024 Autumn Nations Series concluded with Andy Farrell taking on his old boss Joe Schmidt. The pair who once worked so well together with Ireland will need to get used to sitting in opposite coaching boxes over the next year, with Farrell taking charge of the British & Irish Lions against Schmidt’s Australia side.
This year’s ANS saw the Wallabies go up against each of the four nations that make up the Lions, making it a nice precursor to next year’s series. It was also an opportunity to see where Australia are at seven months out from the tour.
After finishing bottom of The Rugby Championship table for a second successive year, it’s safe to say that expectations for the Lions tour from an Australian point of view weren’t particularly high.
However, a last-gasp win against England and a hammering of a miserable Wales outfit meant that they were eying a potential grand slam against the four nations for just the second time after 1984.
A poor defensive effort in the second half against Scotland ended those hopes, but they rallied to push Ireland all the way to round off a campaign that was far more positive than many anticipated.
Lions vs Wallabies: Head-to-Head
On an individual level, how do the players stack up against each other following this year’s Autumn Nations Series?
We used the Opta Index to pick the best Australia XV from the series and compare it to the top-ranking Lions players for each position.
Looking at the positional head-to-heads within the two XVs, it’s the Lions-eligible players who ‘win’ the most matchups. They outscore the top Australian player in 10 of 15 positions. That’s perhaps unsurprising, given there are more players available to choose from.
In fact, with Wallabies players winning a third of the head-to-head battles it could be argued that they actually come out with more credit than the Lions players. Even more so when you consider that five of their players would make a combined Lions and Australia team, which would be more than any other nation (Ireland 4, Scotland 4, England 2, Wales 0).
Although both sides will have several personnel changes from our Autumn Nations Series XV above, it’s perhaps an indicator that the Wallabies are more than a match for their British and Irish counterparts. That could mean a much closer series than many anticipated even just a month ago.
The Joe Schmidt Blueprint
So after his first year in charge, how have the Wallabies evolved under Schmidt?
Obviously on a results basis, finishing bottom of The Rugby Championship wasn’t part of the plan, but the Autumn Nations Series has shown there is real potential in this Australia team under the guidance of their new head coach.
Looking at their data on a year-by-year basis since the beginning of 2020, which encapsulates the tenures of both Dave Rennie and Eddie Jones, we can see some trends in how the Wallabies have evolved.
One thing that is noticeable is that Australia’s stats are beginning to resemble Schmidt’s Ireland team. That, of course, is no bad thing given how much he elevated that side, taking them to Six Nations titles and a Grand Slam, as well a number of ‘firsts’ – beating the All Blacks and reaching world number one status spring to mind.
Schmidt’s Ireland averaged 149 carries and 188 passes per game in the Six Nations during his time there, comfortably the highest figures of any side. Their accuracy at the breakdown was also better than any other side, winning 98% of their rucks while in possession.
The Wallabies are trending a similar way, with their 125 carries and 164 passes per game their highest in a single year so far this decade and hugely improved compared to the previous two seasons in particular.
So too is their ruck success rate, with the Wallabies securing possession from 97% of their rucks. Their ruck speed has increased alongside it as well which is a real positive.
The set piece has also improved, with both the scrum and lineout seeing marginally better success rates this year.
While Ireland’s mentality under Schmidt was incredibly positive – backing themselves to score tries rather than penalties – they still had a conservative gameplan when in possession.
They kept handling errors as low as possible by limiting the amount of offloads they threw; their 4.8 offloads per game during Schmidt’s tenure was almost two fewer than any other team in the Six Nations.
Australia have moved in a similar direction, averaging 5.4 per game in 2024. Under Rennie they averaged 6.7, while they made exactly eight per game under Jones.
That cautious approach is seemingly paying off. The Wallabies have averaged a passing error once every 142 passes this year – under Rennie they averaged one every 87 passes and under Jones it was one every 67 passes.
The Star Players
Plenty will be written about which Lions players might shine on next year’s tour, but what about for Australia?
Fraser McReight
According to the Opta Index, Fraser McReight was the top player in the Autumn Nations Series this year and it’s not hard to see why, with the Queenslander posting impressive numbers in both attack and defence.
With ball in hand he evaded 30% of tackles he faced in the series. Of the 40 forwards to face more than 20 tackles in November, only Argentina’s Juan Martín González shrugged off a greater percentage of attempted take-downs (33%).
However, it’s in defence where McReight really shines. That’s unsurprising, given he is the latest off the production line of world class Australian number sevens, and his style does bear resemblance to a certain David Pocock.
He won six turnovers during the Autumn Nations Series, which was more than any other player. Five of those turnovers came via jackals, two more than the next best player – Cortez Ratima – and three more than any other forward (11 players on 2).
That’s not a surprise, given how many defensive rucks the flanker gets involved in. His average of 14 defensive ruck hits per 80 minutes was the most of any player in the series (min. 160 minutes played) and he was the only player to average more than two effective impacts at the opposition breakdown per 80 minutes (2.7).
When he wasn’t pilfering the ball at the breakdown he was making tackles himself, with the flanker finding a blend of quantity and quality in that area. Only three players bettered his tally of 58 tackles (Jac Morgan, Maro Itoje, George Martin) with McReight recording a 97% tackle success rate in the process – better than any of the 13 other players to attempt a half-century of hits.
Tom Wright
While the Lions-eligible backs edged out their opposite numbers for seven of eight positions in our team head-to-head, the top ranked back in the XV was Tom Wright. In fact, he was the second highest ranked player in the team overall after McReight.
During the Autumn Nations Series the full-back gained 382 metres with ball in hand, more than any other player, and his average of 9.8 metres per carry was over two metres more than any other player to make 25+ carries (56 players in total).
His eight line breaks were also a joint-high, alongside France’s Louis Bielle-Biarrey, while only Darcy Graham – who scored five tries – crossed the try line more often than him (4).
His right boot is a weapon, too. Wright gained 603m from 14 kicks from hand during the Autumn Nations Series, with his average of 43m per kick almost 10 metres more than any other player (min. 10 kicks).
In fact, when limiting this to territorial kicks only, he averaged 49m per kick, again higher than any other player during November.
It’s a weapon in Wright’s arsenal which might seem less important than his running game, but Schmidt will surely know how important James Lowe’s booming left foot is to Ireland’s territorial game and we can expect Andy Farrell to have a similar outlet in his Lions team.
Whether that comes in the form of Lowe or someone else is another question, but in Wright the Wallabies head coach has someone who can counteract that particular threat.
Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
Making a senior rugby union debut in a test match might have been daunting for most players, but it didn’t seem to affect Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii. Not only did he slot in without any sign of weakness in his first Wallabies game against England, but he went on to be named player of the match.
His ability to bring teammates into play from the outside centre position could be huge going forwards and he showcased a glimpse of that during the Autumn Nations Series.
He averaged 1.9 offloads per 80 during the series, more than any other centre to feature for at least 80 minutes. Four of his total offloads came against England, with one assisting a try.
It was a feature of his game before moving to the 15-man code too, suggesting he’s likely to continue in a similar vein in rugby union. The former Sydney Rooster assisted nine tries in the NRL in his final season, averaging one every 159 minutes – a tally only one centre could better during the campaign (Jesse Ramien – 144 mins).
Angus Bell
Despite only turning 24 the month before Australia kicked off their European tour, Angus Bell has already put himself in the frame as one of the best props in the world, especially with ball in hand.
During the Autumn Nations Series, Bell beat 12 defenders from his 35 carries, a tally only one forward – Argentina’s Juan Martin Gonzalez (14) – could better, while it was four times more than any other prop managed during the November tests.
Nine of the tackles he evaded came in his 71-minute spell against England. That was the most defenders beaten by a prop in a Test since Opta have recorded this data (2010).
It’s nothing new for Bell though. He’s now beaten 5+ defenders on four occasions since the beginning of 2023. Only one other prop (Thomas Gallo, twice) has managed to do that in a game during that period.
The Wallabies have already shown signs of improvement during Joe Schmit’s first year in charge – can he take them to the level they need to be at to beat the Lions?
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