In our Week 10 fantasy football start ’em and sit ’em, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the expert consensus.
After a little hiatus, we’re back this week with more Yays and Nays!
And we’re back after a week in which our model had the No. 1 most accurate projections across the entire Fantasy Pros site of 179 experts. We were also first in positional rankings for quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends.
With more than half of the real season now behind us, and with some fantasy leagues only a few weeks away from the playoffs, now’s a good time to take stock of some of the trends that are defining this regular season.
Following our first installment back in Week 5, here are five more numbers. If you’re just here for Yays and Nays, scroll away. You won’t hurt our feelings.
1,727
That’s how many rushing yards the Baltimore Ravens have this season. If there’s a team of the first half, it’s got to be the Ravens. Is Lamar Jackson on track for a potentially historic third MVP? Is he even the MVP of this team, or is it the sensational Derrick Henry?
Let’s start with Lamar. He is widely regarded as the best running quarterback in the NFL. He’s got more rushing yards through his first seven full seasons than any other quarterback in history. It’s not even close, his 5,763 rushing yards are over 1,000 more than the next closest quarterback (Cam Newton). But it’s his passing that has elevated him from an elite fantasy quarterback to the premier one.
He’s on track for 4,494 passing yards, which would blow away his previous career high of 3,678. Better yet, he’s on an upward trend. He has thrown for at least 280 yards in each of his last five games (his previous career-long streak of games with 280+ passing yards was three). There is likely no quarterback inspiring more confidence for fantasy managers right now than Lamar.
Derrick Henry meanwhile, is an alien. He’s threatening the 2,000 rushing yard benchmark and his 13 total touchdowns are as many as the Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans have scored this season. We surmised before the season that Henry would enjoy wide-open running lanes unlike anything he saw with the Tennessee Titans because of the threat of Jackson’s legs, and not only has that revealed itself to be 100% true, but his first-half production has exceeded all expectations. He has more games (five) with 25 or more PPR points as he does games with fewer than 25.
Jackson is first in the NFL among all players with 5.1 yards per carry before contact. Henry is third, and his overall yards per carry is an astounding 6.3. Oh, and in his career, Henry’s yards per carry gets increasingly larger the later we get in the calendar year.
With Henry in tow, with Zay Flowers and a solid group of passing options, the Ravens are THE fantasy team through nine weeks.
12.6
That’s how many points per game the Los Angeles Chargers are allowing. If you think that’s low, it is. Not only is it the best mark in the NFL this season, it’s on track to be one of the lowest numbers in recent history.
Over the last 20 years, only the 2006 Ravens and 2005 Chicago Bears have finished the season allowing fewer than 13 points per game. Since the 2012 season, only the 2013 Seattle Seahawks and 2019 New England Patriots have allowed fewer than 15 points per game. In case you’re keeping track, that is the best fantasy defensive season in the last decade and the prime Legion of Boom, respectively.
Sure, their competition hasn’t been top notch, but despite injuries and an offense that hasn’t exactly lit up the scoreboard, the Chargers boast a defense that suddenly should be among the most feared defenses that your players may face any given week. This defense has more interceptions (nine) than passing touchdowns allowed (seven) through eight games, and their three rushing touchdowns allowed are tied for the fewest in the NFL.
28.5
That’s the average age of the top-four fantasy running backs in PPR points per game to start the season – the only four running backs averaging more than 20 PPR points per game. We already mentioned Henry. But how about Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, and Joe Mixon? This has been a season for the ages for the guys who were supposedly in their primes four(ish) years ago.
Barkley has been a revelation for the Philadelphia Eagles. With AJ Brown injured (again) and Dallas Goedert still out, Barkley has almost single-handedly kept the Eagles afloat. His 5.9 yards per carry is almost a full yard higher than his career-best mark, and he too is on pace to break his previous career high in touchdowns.
Kamara, meanwhile, finished last week as RB3 and did it on the strength of volume. He had 35 touches (29 carries and six receptions) which is how you can finish third without a touchdown. He now has 15 more touches than the next closest player, and his 46 receptions are eight more than any other running back.
Along with Henry and Barkley, Mixon too changed teams during the offseason and he too is on pace for career highs across the board. Whereas four running backs are averaging 20 points per game, zero wide receivers are. Overall, it’s been a struggle for wide receivers this year which can be seen with…
7
That’s how many wide receivers are on track for at least 1,200 receiving yards this season. Last year, 12 receivers hit that benchmark. And of those seven for this season, we’re including DK Metcalf and Nico Collins – both currently injured but on pace to surpass 1,200 yards if they can hit their season-long per game averages by playing every remaining game.
So realistically, there may only be five players with a legitimate shot of hitting 1,200 yards. The last time only five players hit that number was in 2019, which also happens to be the last time fewer than two wide receivers scored at least 20 PPR points per game. This year, so far, it’s only Collins.
Unlike the previous few years, if you based your strategy around solidifying your wide receiver position, you may be struggling compared to those that took a running back-heavy approach.
57
And finally, that’s how many receptions Brock Bowers has this season. Other than Bowers and George Kittle, it’s been a bleak season for tight ends. It’s also been a dismal season for the Las Vegas Raiders. So if you have Bowers on your fantasy team or you root for him on your real-life team, you can take solace in the fact that you have an absolute superstar.
The Yays: Week 10 Fantasy Players Projected to Overperform Expert Consensus
Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Wednesday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.
Daniel Jones, QB (NYG) vs CAR (ECR: 16, Our Rank: QB9, Projected Points: 19.32)
The Giants are one of five teams averaging fewer than 5.15 yards per passing play. Because of that, you may be asking yourself how Jones can not only be a Yay, but be a top-10 quarterback for our model this week. The answer is simple. You know the old adage of an unstoppable force versus an immovable object? This would be the opposite of that.
See, for all the woes of the Giants passing offense, playing the Panthers is a walk in the park. No team allows more yards per pass play (7.48) than Carolina.
The Panthers have allowed 36 more points than the NFL’s second worst scoring defense and here is the list of quarterbacks that have had their best game of the season against the Panthers: Caleb Williams, Bo Nix and Derek Carr.
In other words, you don’t have to be an all-time great QB to produce gaudy numbers against this defense. This game is in Germany, and with Malik Nabers as our model’s WR1 for the week, Jones is a top-10 play.
Chase Brown, RB (CIN) vs BAL (ECR: 16, Our Rank: RB5, PP: 20.87)
These teams’ Week 5 meeting produced one of the games of the year, with Burrow and Lamar going head to head with jaw-dropping plays on both sides. Brown back in Week 5 scored a very respectable 16.4 PPR points.
Here’s the thing, running backs against the Ravens struggle mightily. In fact, no team allows fewer rushing yards per game and no team allows fewer yards per rush. This defense is built to stop the run. Luckily for Brown, this defense has shown to be susceptible to the running back in the passing game.
Over the last three weeks, the Ravens have allowed running backs to accumulate 15 receptions, 180 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The model expects that to continue this week. Brown is second in projected receptions among running backs, and first in projected receiving touchdowns. He’s firmly in our model’s RB1 tier.
Darnell Mooney, WR (ATL) vs NO (ECR: 19, Our Rank: WR10, PP: 14.69)
If you cast off Mooney as a valuable fantasy asset after his stint with the Chicago Bears, you wouldn’t be the only one. But in case you aren’t aware, he’s been fantastic pretty much all season for Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons. In fact, since Week 2, he’s been a top-10 wide receiver.
This week, he faces a New Orleans Saints team that allows the fourth most passing yards per game. They also just traded their best cornerback – Marshon Lattimore – to the Washington Commanders.
In games with at least six targets, Mooney is averaging 17.2 PPR points per game. Our model is projecting him for over seven targets. He is a borderline must-start player now, a status befitting of a player who has been an elite option at WR all season.
CeeDee Lamb, WR (DAL) vs PHI (ECR: 30, Our Rank: WR18, PP: 13.33)
Entering Week 10, Lamb is second in the NFL in receiving yards per game. Meanwhile, in the six games that Cooper Rush has started in his career, Lamb has averaged over six receptions and 82 yards per game.
This one is simple. CeeDee Lamb is really good, and he should get the benefit of the doubt. If you have him, start him until we see firm evidence that suggests otherwise.
The Nays: Week 10 Fantasy Players Projected to Underperform Expert Consensus
Jared Goff, QB (DET) vs HOU (ECR: 13, Our Rank: QB22, PP: 13.89)
You may not find a more unusual game profile than this intriguing matchup between the red-hot Detroit Lions offense and the rather mercurial Houston Texans defense. What do we mean by that?
Well, what if we told you that Houston was second in the NFL in fewest yards allowed per game? Good! What if we told you they were third in passing yards per game? Also good! What if we finished by telling you that no team has allowed more passing touchdowns than the Texans? How is that even possible?
Now, what if we told you that over the last two weeks, the Lions have scored 76 combined points. You’d think that the Lions were probably throwing the ball all over the field. Nope, over the last two weeks, Jared Goff has a combined 230 passing yards.
All of which is to say, Goff has a lower-than-average projection of passing yards which limits his upside. He’s a QB2, with the likes of Cooper Rush and Drake Maye.
James Cook, RB (BUF) vs IND (ECR: 13, Our Rank: RB30, PP: 9.98)
Cook has undeniably been a good fantasy player this season. But has there been a more up-and-down player than Cook who can make that claim of being a positive?
He has as many games with fewer than 45 rushing yards as he does games with more than 45 rushing yards. Entering Week 4, Cook was the season’s RB6. Since the start of that week, he is only the RB25.
Against a Colts defense that has only allowed seven rushing touchdowns in nine games, the model thinks Cook is unlikely to score a touchdown (29th among running backs). And because of his volatility in both effectiveness and volume, Cook is merely a Flex play.
Deebo Samuel, WR (SF) vs TB (ECR: 13, Our Rank: WR22, PP: 12.85)
Samuel has been an electric player for the San Francisco 49ers going back to his breakout 2019 season when he received All-Pro honors. But that electricity has mostly disappeared this season.
He has zero games since Week 2 with more than four receptions and he only has one touchdown during that stretch. When you dive into the numbers, it’s even worse. He only has 11 receptions in the four games he’s played since Week 3 and he’s now fourth on the 49ers in both rushing and receiving yards.
Oh, and all indications are that Christian McCaffrey will be making his long-awaited season debut this week. Until we see the breakdown of touches and an increase in volume, our model thinks of Deebo as a low-end WR2.
Didn’t see the names you were after? Don’t forget to check out our complete fantasy football rankings. Happy exploring. And follow along on Instagram and X.
