In our Week 14 fantasy football start and sit, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the expert consensus.
Last week was an odd one.
It seemingly happens at least once every season, particularly as the calendar nears or passes Thanksgiving. Last year, it was in Week 14.
What do we mean? Consider the following, which again, all happened last week. The three highest-scoring offenses were the Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Commanders and Denver Broncos.
If you’re keeping track at home, those offenses are, respectively, led by a quarterback who is being paid roughly $38 million by a different team to not play for them, a rookie, and a rookie, who, by the way, is on the team that is paying that first guy to not play for them!
We’re just getting started. The first game of the week, as turkeys were cooking in ovens all over the nation, saw the Chicago Bears lose in such an abysmal way that their coach was fired the next day.
Abysmal you say? Some might say comical, some depressing. Historic? Yea, that would work as well.
We saw a team run 77 plays and record 350 yards against a team that had an offense that was only on the field for 46 plays, gaining a grand total of 187 yards. The team that ran 77 plays was the Atlanta Falcons. They lost to the Los Angeles Chargers.
We had another team fumble or muff three different kickoffs, losing two of them. That same team also allowed a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and had a PAT blocked. Yet, the Seattle Seahawks still won, beating the New York Jets after Aaron Rodgers missed a wide-open Garrett Wilson in the end zone to put his team up 28-7 and proceeded to throw a 92-yard Pick-6 on the very next play (to a guy who weighs 300 pounds no less).
And in absolutely dramatic fashion, how was the week capped off? Only with football’s most chaotic player having his most quintessential game.
Jameis Winston led all quarterbacks in Week 13 in pass attempts, passing yards and passing touchdowns. He did all that while throwing two Pick-6s.
And in case you’re wondering, yes, he also led all quarterbacks in fantasy points.
- Jayden Daniels has been awesome as a rookie, with back-to-back excellent games. Unfortunately, there’s a chance that fantasy managers didn’t play him for either because from Weeks 7-11, Daniels was only QB18, averaging a paltry 14.1 fantasy points per game.
- Josh Allen as QB3 makes sense. But because he played in awful conditions, he was 28th on the week in passing yards and last in pass attempts. So how did he still finish as QB3? Well, he threw a touchdown pass in which he was also rewarded with a receiving touchdown on the same play.
- We already mentioned that the Steelers scored more points than any other team last week. Russell Wilson had his second most passing yards in a game, and in case you forgot, Justin Fields was drafted on average as the 198th player in fantasy drafts. Wilson was drafted 203rd.
- It’s been a real struggle for Caleb Williams this season. Entering Thanksgiving, he only had one game all season with more than two passing touchdowns. The Detroit Lions, meanwhile, hadn’t allowed a single multi-touchdown passing performance to a QB all season. The end result? Williams threw three touchdown passes.
- No surprise seeing Lamar here. But he really shouldn’t have been. He scored 9.14 fantasy points on an absolutely meaningless final drive with the game already out of hand.
- Tua Tagovailoa in his last three games in which the temperature was under 40 degrees at kickoff had averaged 212 passing yards and one touchdown per game. This week? He threw for 365 yards and two touchdowns.
- Bryce Young?!?!?! He got benched and was widely regarded as a bust. He only got his job back because the backup quarterback got in a car accident. He’s all of a sudden playing… OK? He’s led a late, fourth quarter, game-tying drive in back-to-back games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
- Anthony Richardson and Drake Maye played each other. Richardson threw for 109 yards and only completed 50% of his 24 pass attempts. Maye only had one touchdown and the two combined for three interceptions. But they also finished fourth and second respectively in rushing yards, showcasing the power of playing a mobile quarterback in fantasy each week.
Missing from that list? Quarterbacks with an average draft position (ADP) of QB2 (Patrick Mahomes), QB3 (Jalen Hurts), QB5 (C.J. Stroud), QB7 (Joe Burrow), QB8 (Kyler Murray), QB9 (Jordan Love), QB10 (Dak Prescott) and QB11 (Brock Purdy).
Now entering the home stretch, with six teams on bye, the waiver wire and your bench takes center stage.
The Yays: Week 14 Fantasy Players Projected to Overperform Expert Consensus
Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Wednesday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.
Brock Purdy, QB (SF) vs CHI (ECR: 13, Our Rank: QB7, Projected Points: 17.97)
Has there been a single more disappointing team than the San Francisco 49ers? Heck, has there been a more injured team than the 49ers? Here is a list of offensive players who have made at least one All-Pro team while on the 49ers… Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Kyle Juszczyk, and Trent Williams.
If you’re wondering why Purdy has been so successful to start his career, that list is one great place to start. And if you’re wondering why Purdy has struggled this season, well those six players have missed a combined 19 games – only Juszczyk has played every game.
But here’s the flip side, his struggles have not been as pronounced as the team-wide 49ers struggles. In the first eight weeks of the season, all games that McCaffrey missed, Purdy was QB5, with only one game with fewer than 15 fantasy points. Without McCaffrey (and without backup Jordan Mason), this is Purdy’s offense.
Our model is projecting him to finish among the top five quarterbacks in both passing and rushing yards. He’s a top-10 play for the model this week.
Najee Harris, RB (PIT) vs CLE (ECR: 21, Our Rank: RB14, PP: 13.64)
It’s not just Russell Wilson that’s trending up; he’s the rising tide for a suddenly fantasy potent offense. Since Week 7, when Wilson took over the starting job, the Steelers are averaging 28.7 points per game, a mark that would be fifth in the NFL if that was their season-long total.
For Harris, Wilson’s presence has been a boom. Since Week 7, Harris has had at least 16 carries and 18 touches in every game. He is seventh among all players in touches per game over the last seven weeks. Meanwhile, they’re playing a Cleveland Browns team that just allowed the Denver Broncos to rush for over 100 yards and two touchdowns.
Our model has Harris projected for the 11th-most carries and sixth-most touchdowns this week. Because of his consistent volume, he’s the definition of a high-floor player. He’s a solid RB2 this week.
Darnell Mooney, WR (ATL) vs MIN (ECR: 30, Our Rank: WR6, PP: 16.88)
Here are the three players directly behind Mooney in total PPR points this season… Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown and Cooper Kupp. Not bad!
That’s with two rough weeks in a row for Mooney, scoring five or fewer points in back-to-back games. But his overall body of work is still strong, which is why he is our model’s most underrated player for this week. And if it seems like the Minnesota Vikings defense is a tough matchup, that might not necessarily be the case.
While the Vikings are second in fantasy points, it’s because they make splash plays. They’re fourth in sacks and second in total takeaways. But they also allow the fifth most passing yards per game, and only four teams have allowed more completions than the Vikings. And over the last three weeks, the Vikings have played Will Levis, Caleb Williams and Kyler Murray – not exactly world-beating passers – and surrendered over 277 passing yards per game.
It’s the Kirk Cousins bowl this week in Minnesota. Only three QBs are projected to throw more interceptions than Cousins, who it should be noted, is coming off a horrendous four-interception game. But he’s also third in projected passing yards and Mooney is slated to be a major recipient. He is a WR1 for our model this week.
The Nays: Week 14 Fantasy Players Projected to Underperform Expert Consensus
Patrick Mahomes, QB (KC) vs LAC (ECR: 7, Our Rank: QB13, PP: 15.09)
If the 49ers are the most disappointing team of real-life football, the most disappointing fantasy team might be the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs are 11-1. They’re also only 12th in the NFL in points scored and they don’t have a single position player who has scored at least 150 PPR points. In case you need some context, there are 45 players who have scored at least that many. None of them play for the Chiefs.
It hasn’t exactly been a banner season for Mahomes either. He is currently 23rd in the NFL in yards per pass attempt, sandwiched between quarterbacks like Anthony Richardson and Will Levis. How bad has it been? Last week was only the second time all season Mahomes threw for at least 300 yards. That was against the Las Vegas Raiders. And they still only managed 19 points.
This week, facing a Los Angeles Chargers defense that has allowed 30 fewer points than the next best defense (Philadelphia), the model isn’t expecting much of a change from Mahomes normal numbers this season. Mahomes is QB12 in points per game, and that’s right around where the model expects him to finish this week.
Bucky Irving, RB (TB) vs LV (ECR: 8, Our Rank: RB21, PP: 11.79)
If we’re talking purely about potential fantasy-league winners, there aren’t a lot of names that could be on that list. Irving is. Since Week 3, Irving is RB13. Since Week 6, he’s Week 8. This, from a player who was drafted as the 52nd running back in fantasy drafts.
Irving has scored at least 27 PPR points in each of his last two games. But for all the things that have gone wrong with the Las Vegas Raiders this season, they remain a relatively stout rushing defense. Fifty-nine, 57 and 75 are the rushing totals that the Raiders have allowed to running backs over the last three weeks. And Las Vegas has only allowed one rushing touchdown over the last four weeks.
Irving has supplanted Rachaad White in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield, particularly when it comes to rushing attempts. But they still trust White in the passing game, and this is likely to be a game in which the Bucs find more success through the air. Irving is an RB2 for this week, but for the rest of the season, he’s someone you want on your roster.
DK Metcalf, WR (SEA) vs ARI (ECR: 20, Our Rank: WR31, PP: 12.36)
Every good fantasy story usually has a “loser.” We just mentioned the emergence of Irving, which is great for all those who don’t have a lot of stock in White. Well, in Seattle, the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba has led to a decline in a true fan favorite across the league.
In his last four games, Metcalf doesn’t have a game with 10 targets and only caught more than four passes in one of them. In the previous five games before this latest stretch, Metcalf had at least 11 targets in three of them.
In PPR formats, without a high reliability for receptions each week, touchdowns take on an added importance. That’s usually Metcalf’s strength, but he only has three this year and only one since Week 4. Against an Arizona defense that has only allowed four passing touchdowns in the last six games, Metcalf is a risky Flex play for the model this week.
Didn’t see the names you were after? Be sure to check out our full Week 14 fantasy football projections, as well as our NFL, MLB, NBA, and college football coverage. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.
