In our Week 16 fantasy football start and sit, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the expert consensus.
Fantasy playoffs are either starting for your league this week or are already underway. Which makes this a good time to look at the 2024 season as a whole. Without further ado, here are our 2024 fantasy superlatives.
If you’re here for this week’s Yays and Nays, you won’t hurt anyone’s feelings by jumping down the page.
Fantasy Most Valuable Player: New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara
Runner-up: Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin
This could have gone a myriad of ways, but ultimately it was hard to overlook Alvin Kamara, who enters Week 16 as the second-best running back in PPR formats. His average draft position of RB17 reflected the industry-wide consensus that he was mostly past his golden days, making him an absolute steal for those who gladly let Kamara fall to them in drafts. That’s a key consideration when deciding on the most valuable player rather than just selecting a positional fantasy points leader.
Terry McLaurin entered this year with the unofficial title of the “most productive wide receiver who’d never played with a good quarterback.” He’s on pace to break 1,000 yards (he’s only 31 short) for the fifth straight season, but with Jayden Daniels (more on him later) at the helm, he’s already shattered his career-high in touchdowns and as such, enters Week 16 as WR5. That is a tremendous return on investment for a player whose ADP was WR31.
After Raheem Mostert won this award last year with Keenan Allen as the runner-up, maybe drafting older players isn’t such a bad strategy.
Fantasy Offensive Player of the Year: Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase
Runner-up: Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley
Much like the real award, this just goes to the best non-QB offensive player who had the best season. There’s a very good chance that these two players finish as the top two players for the OPOY award at the conclusion of the season, so it makes perfect sense that they’d also finish first and second in our fantasy awards.
Ja’Marr Chase and Saquon Barkley are the top players at their positions, with Chase almost certainly going to win the receiving triple crown and Barkley threatening 2,000 rushing yards. It was hard to split hairs between these two, but Chase currently has more PPR points, and we’ll give the edge to the player who since Week 10 – during the home stretch of fantasy regular seasons – scored the second most fantasy points of any player, behind only Josh Allen.
Fantasy Defensive Player of the Year: Minnesota Vikings LB Andrew Van Ginkel
Runner-up: Green Bay Packers S Xavier McKinney
We wrote about Andrew Van Ginkel earlier this season, so it should come as little surprise that he finishes the year atop this category. He is inside the top 10 in the NFL in sacks and tackles for a loss and remains the only player with multiple interceptions returned for touchdowns. He is the playmaker on a Vikings defense that is the second-best fantasy defense.
The Packers are fifth among defenses and Xavier McKinney, in his first year in this Packers defense, is the ringleader of the group. His seven interceptions are tied for first in the NFL and are half of the 14 total interceptions that the Packers defense has come away with this season, a mark that is tied for fourth in the NFL.
Fantasy Coach of the Year: Wide receiver coaches from Ohio State and LSU
Runners-up: Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson, Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator Detroit Lions
In case you’ve missed what’s happening at the top of the wide receiver charts this season, just know that the best players mostly came from either Ohio State or LSU. There must be something in the water at those two schools because the WR1 (Chase), WR3 (Justin Jefferson), WR7 (Brian Thomas Jr.) and WR10 (Malik Nabers) all went to LSU, while WR5 (McLaurin), WR6 (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) and WR8 (Garrett Wilson) went to Ohio State.
Among NFL coaches, no one is more popular among fantasy managers than Dan Campbell and the Lions coaching staff. They have a fantasy friendly offense that spreads the ball to everyone while it remains efficient enough that most are more than viable weekly options. Oh, and they’re extremely aggressive on fourth downs.
Fantasy Rookie of the Year: Las Vegas Raiders TE Brock Bowers
Runner-up: Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels
There are a lot of good options this year at the rookie position, but only one of them is atop their entire position in total fantasy points. Brock Bowers is having a historic year, highlighted by having the fourth most receptions of any player in the NFL. Bowers, who entered the year with an ADP of TE11, is likely on a lot of playoff teams.
Choosing the runner up was nearly impossible. Between Nabers and Thomas Jr., there were two deserving rookie wide receivers. But ultimately, it was impossible to not choose their college quarterback, Jayden Daniels. Daniels has nine games of at least 20 points this season, third among quarterbacks behind only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. He is QB6 on the season, and one of only eight players to have scored at least 290 points.
Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year: Minnesota Vikings QB Sam Darnold
Runner-up: Cleveland Browns WR Jerry Jeudy
Sam Darnold played in 10 games last season for the San Francisco 49ers. He finished with negative fantasy points in seven of them, because he often came in for only one or two snaps to kneel at the end of the game. Only a meaningless Week 18 game got him solidly in the positive, as he finished 2023 as QB55. Fast forward to this year as Darnold is QB8, ahead of players like Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud.
Jerry Jeudy wasn’t much better last season, finishing as the WR50 in 2023. There are five receivers already over 1,000 yards this season. Arguably the four best receivers in football (Chase, Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown) and Jeudy. In fact, a lot of his production has come recently. Jameis Winston took over the starting job for the Browns in Week 8. Jeudy is WR5 in that time. Along with Darnold, he came from out of nowhere to be a top-10 player at his position.
Fantasy Offensive Team of the Year: Cincinnati Bengals
Runner-up: Detroit Lions
Joe Burrow is QB3. Chase Brown is RB9. Ja’Marr Chase, as we already mentioned, is WR1. Tee Higgins has missed a few games to injury but is WR10 in PPR points per game. This is a dynamite offense, one in which you can confidently start four different players. Burrow hasn’t scored fewer than 18.8 fantasy points since Week 8. Neither has Brown. Chase has only scored fewer than 17.5 fantasy points twice since Week 3. This is a team that scores a lot of fantasy points, and hardly ever lets you down.
The Lions won this category last year. They finish runner-up this year only because of the drop off from tight end Sam LaPorta, but they once again lead the league in guys worth starting in your lineups – get better soon, David Montgomery!
Fantasy Defensive Team of the Year: Cincinnati Bengals
Runner-up: Carolina Panthers
Well, here in fantasyland, we don’t like good defenses. We like defenses that allow offenses to march up and down the field. So, for as good as the Bengals offense has been, the Bengals defense has been similarly as good for its opponents. They allow the second most points in the NFL and are generally abysmal in most every category, including allowing the fourth most yards per game and having the second fewest sacks.
The Panthers have allowed the most points, they allow the second most yards and most rushing yards per game. They’re worse than the Bengals, but they were expected to be bad. The Bengals were expected to compete for a playoff spot, so they get the nod.
First Team All Pro Fantasy Team:
- QB: Josh Allen
- RB: Saquon Barkley
- RB: Joe Mixon
- WR: Ja’Marr Chase
- WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown
- WR: Justin Jefferson
- TE: George Kittle
- Super Flex: Lamar Jackson
- K: Chris Boswell
- DEF: Denver Broncos
An absolutely brutal choice at QB between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. You absolutely cannot go wrong with either, but because of his superhuman play down the stretch of fantasy regular seasons – Allen averaged more than 40 points per game over the last three weeks – we’ll give the edge to Allen.
Joe Mixon in the No. 2 running back slot might be kind of surprising, but he enters Week 16 second among all running backs in PPR points per game, on the back of scoring at least 20 points in more than half of his games. He gets the nod over Derrick Henry, who hasn’t scored a touchdown in over a month. The two superstar second-year running backs Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs also warranted heavy consideration, but Mixon has more games with 26 PPR points (four) than the two youngsters combined (three).
George Kittle over Bowers came down almost entirely to the rookie scoring fewer than 8.5 points in weeks 12, 14 and 15. There was no debate for any of the wide receiver spots or Boswell, who as we highlighted in our Thanksgiving article has been by far the NFL’s best kicker this season.
There hasn’t been a dominant fantasy defense this year, so the Denver Broncos by default as fantasy’s top scoring unit, on the backs of three touchdowns in their last two games, get the final spot.
And finally, it was so hard to decide between the two game wreckers at the quarterback position that we decided to cop out and create a Super Flex team. Jackson is first among quarterbacks in rushing yards, and second in passing touchdowns. He is a two-time MVP playing the best he’s ever played.
The Yays: Week 16 Fantasy Players Projected to Overperform Expert Consensus
Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Wednesday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.
Justin Herbert, QB (LAC) vs DEN (ECR: 17, Our Rank: QB11, Projected Points: 17.54)
There are 36 quarterbacks with at least 162 passing attempts this season. Justin Herbert is the only one with fewer than three interceptions. Meanwhile, in the nine games Herbert played before Week 11, he only attempted 30 passes or more three times. Since Week 11, he’s hit that mark four times.
You combine the uptick in passing volume for Herbert with the fact that he’s facing a Broncos defense that over the last six weeks has allowed nine passing touchdowns and an average of 290 passing yards per game, and the recipe is there for Herbert to be a high-end QB2 this week.
D’Andre Swift, RB (CHI) vs DET (ECR: 25, Our Rank: RB13, PP: 15.28)
D’Andre Swift hasn’t been the dynamic add that the Chicago Bears were probably hoping for. From the fantasy point of view, he was selected as the 20th running back off the board in drafts and enters this week as … RB20 in PPR points.
But there are two things in his favor this week. For starters, he has at least 15 touches in every game but one since Week 2. This is still mostly his backfield. Secondly, this is not the stingy Lions defense we saw at the beginning of the year, what feels like 50 injuries ago.
The Lions have allowed seven rushing touchdowns over the last two weeks. That, after only allowing nine through the first 12 games of their season. Oh, and on top of allowing 197 rushing yards last week, the Lions also surrendered 156 receiving yards to running backs.
The Bears are likely going to need to score points to hang around in this game. That bodes well for Swift’s chances. He’s a solid play this week.
A.J. Brown (ECR: 8, Our Rank: WR2, PP: 19.20) and DeVonta Smith (ECR: 25, Our Rank: WR10, PP: 15.85), WRs (PHI) vs WAS
Last week, A.J. Brown got into a public spat with his quarterback. He was our model’s WR31. He finished the week with 25 PPR points, good for WR8. He wasn’t even the most productive wide receiver on his own team, because DeVonta Smith finished with 28 PPR points and a top-five finish.
This week, the model has done a complete 180. A good performance against a defense as strong as the Pittsburgh Steelers will help do that. Especially because the Washington Commanders don’t possess nearly the defense that the Steelers trot out every week.
Jalen Hurts attempted 32 passes last week, of which 23 went in the direction of either Brown or Smith. Of his 25 completions, Brown caught eight and Smith 11. The Eagles don’t need to pass a lot to service two elite wide receivers when almost 75% of the passes are in the direction of those two players. Look for both to have strong weeks once again in an NFC East showdown.
The Nays: Week 16 Fantasy Players Projected to Underperform Expert Consensus
Brock Purdy, QB (SF) vs MIA (ECR: 10, Our Rank: QB17, PP: 15.13)
Brock Purdy has played five career games without first-ballot Hall of Famer Trent Williams manning the left tackle position. In those five games, Purdy has four passing touchdowns and five interceptions, and the 49ers have only surpassed 17 points scored once.
This week, Purdy will once again be without Williams. Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk aren’t walking through that door either. Facing a Miami Dolphins defense that is outstanding at limiting big plays and ranks sixth in the NFL in fewest yards allowed per game, this is another week where the model is expecting Purdy to struggle.
Over the last three weeks, Purdy is 27th in total fantasy points. He is projected for the fifth fewest passing touchdowns among all quarterbacks this week, and without a huge projection of passing yards, Purdy is simply a mid-tier QB2 this week as opposed to a borderline QB1.
Breece Hall, RB (NYJ) vs LAR (ECR: 19, Our Rank: RB29, PP: 10.05)
Taking out all injured players from this rhetorical question, has there been a more disappointing player in fantasy football this season? Breece Hall was selected as the fifth overall player in fantasy drafts this season, and the third running back. And yet, through 15 weeks, Hall is RB16.
It took a horrible coaching decision for Hall to salvage a mediocre fantasy performance last week, scoring a touchdown with one minute left in the fourth quarter when the New York Jets probably should have been kneeling the ball to run more time off the clock. Had that happened, it would have been the fifth time in his last 10 games that he failed to break double digit PPR points.
As you can see from his projection this week, 10 points is about what the model expects him to score this week as well against a Rams defense that has only allowed one running back to score a touchdown against them since Week 5. With seasons on the line, Hall is a big-name risk this week.
CeeDee Lamb, WR (DAL) vs TB (ECR: 4, Our Rank: WR22, PP: 14.28)
Tale of two (or three) NFC East wide receivers. The Philly duo finished fifth and eighth last week, and both make the Yay list this week. CeeDee Lamb finished sixth, but he doesn’t get the same bump.
On the one hand, it was his second-best performance of the season, at a critical time for fantasy managers. On the other hand, it was against the Panthers. This week, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he is expected to regress, almost entirely due to the model projecting Lamb with a rather low touchdown projection.
The Bucs have only allowed five passing touchdowns in their last five games, and three of those opponents did not surpass 205 passing yards. And while Cooper Rush has been serviceable, he’s not lighting the world on fire. If you have Lamb, you’re likely playing him because he’s been too productive all season to sit him, but expectations should be tempered.
Didn’t see the names you were after? Be sure to check out our full Week 16 fantasy football projections, as well as our NFL, MLB, NBA, and college football coverage. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.
