In our Week 17 fantasy football start and sit, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the expert consensus.
Back in Week 17 of 2023, we listed three key lessons from the season that would be good things to remember entering fantasy drafts in 2024. Let’s revisit those quickly, then discuss some lessons from 2024 before getting to the Yays and Nays for your title bout.
1. Draft highly drafted rookie running backs and wide receivers
Well, there we no highly drafted rookie running backs, but there were plenty of first-round receivers. And while Marvin Harrison Jr. has been slightly underwhelming, especially when compared with his average draft position, Malik Nabers is WR10, Brian Thomas Jr. is WR6 and, for good measure, Brock Bowers is TE1.
2. Draft Mike Evans
Mike Evans’ ADP was WR14. He missed most of Week 7 and weeks 8-10 to injury. His season-long total is WR19. But here’s another thing that’s true about Evans: He is 182 yards from his 11th straight 1,000-yard season, and if he can do that and score one more touchdown over the next two weeks, he’ll be one of only four or five wide receivers in 2024 with at least 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The others? Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Justin Jefferson and maybe Thomas Jr.
And if he does hit those benchmarks, you can be sure that he’ll climb the end-of-season wide receiver rankings as well. His floor is as high as any wide receiver drafted outside the first round.
3. Find a high-scoring offense and stack multiple players from that team
There are eight teams that have scored at least 400 offensive points this season. The Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals and Philadelphia Eagles all have at least two players in the top four at their respective positions. The Washington Commanders have two top-five players, and the Buffalo Bills have two top-10 players.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have Baker Mayfield (QB5) and before he got hurt, Chris Godwin was WR3. They also have the aforementioned Evans and two top-18 running backs.
The only outlier is the Green Bay Packers. Had you stacked any of those seven offenses, chances are, the backbone of your team would have been solidified all season.
So that leads us to this year. What have we learned that we should remember as we head into draft season in 2025?
1. Running backs had an amazing year, but draft wide receivers early next year
There are 18 running backs who have either already surpassed or are on pace to break 1,000 rushing yards this season. That would be the most since 2006.
There are 12 running backs on pace to score 250 PPR points. How unusual is that? There haven’t been more than eight in a single season in the last decade. Six of those running backs are likely to break 300 PPR points, which would also be the most in the last decade.
Let’s say six running backs will be top-12 picks next year (Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson and three others). The smart move will be to fade them. Because this has been an outlier season for running backs, a season that mind you has the preseason RB1 (Christian McCaffrey), RB3 (Breece Hall) and RB5 (Jonathan Taylor) all outside the top 15 at the position.
Meanwhile, four of the five highest draft wide receivers (CeeDee Lamb, Chase, Jefferson, St. Brown) this season comprise the current top four at the position. In the first round, it’s a surer bet to draft a wide receiver, even with this being the year of the running back.
2. If you need a tiebreaker between players, draft the guy that plays indoors – or at least in good weather
This seems straightforward, but it’s easy to forget come draft day. Five of the top-nine and nine of the top-20 running backs play indoors. Three others play in Florida. By PPR points per game, 11 of the top-26 wide receivers play indoors and four more play in Florida or California.
To give some additional perspective, only 11 of the 32 teams play indoors. So that’s just shy of 35%. Yet, 45% of the top-20 running backs play indoors and 42% of the top-26 wide receivers enjoy that same advantage.
What does that mean for next year? The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are both slated to play 12 games in a dome next season? Deciding between Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs next season? Between Nico Collins and Garrett Wilson? Let the tiebreaker be in favor of the player who you know will have perfect weather for most of their games.
3. If you don’t draft Brock Bowers next season, don’t take a tight end in the first 100 picks
What follows are the ADPs of the top-six tight ends in PPR points per game this season: TE6, TE11, TE4, TE10, TE20, TE24. Meanwhile, TEs 1 (Travis Kelce), 2 (Sam LaPorta) and 3 (Mark Andrews) are among the 11 tight ends averaging between 9.0 and 11.5 PPR points per game.
Bowers is fifth in targets in the NFL and tied for second in receptions. And he’s done that this year with awful quarterback play. If you draft an elite tight end, make sure it’s Bowers. If you don’t get him, wait until late in the draft and chances are, your tight end will average roughly three PPR points less than tight ends drafted 75 picks earlier.
The Yays: Week 17 Fantasy Players Projected to Overperform Expert Consensus
Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Wednesday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.
Justin Herbert, QB (LAC) vs NE (ECR: 15, Our Rank: QB9, Projected Points: 19.44)
It’s been a long time since Justin Herbert has made an appearance on the Yay list. Let’s go all the way back to – last week, when we opined that Herbert’s uptick in passing attempts combined with his ability to avoid interceptions made him a high-end QB2. Well, he even outperformed our projection, finishing the week as QB7.
Rinse and repeat this week against a New England Patriots defense that allows the fifth-most passing yards per pass attempt and has surrendered 11 passing touchdowns over their last five games. Herbert is a top-10 quarterback this week.
Tony Pollard, RB (TEN) vs JAX (ECR: 23, Our Rank: RB19, PP: 13.56)
More than any other time in the four years of this article being written, the model and industry are syncing up this week. Hence the reason we’re writing about Tony Pollard despite a mere four-spot difference between his ECR and his ranking in our projections.
Essentially, most of the players with a bigger gap than Pollard are ones with injury question marks in the backfield. As of this writing, we’re not sure which running back is starting for the San Francisco 49ers or Arizona Cardinals, leading to both of the backups (or in the Niners case, the backup to the backup to the backup to the backup – think we got that right!) being way higher in our model’s projection than the industry.
As such, let’s spotlight Pollard, who was essentially cast away by the Dallas Cowboys entering this season, and yet quietly has already recorded his third straight season with at least 1,000 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns. It’s been hit or miss in terms of volume for Pollard, who has 10 games with at least 17 touches this season, but also three with fewer than 12. The bet here is that this week against a woeful Jacksonville Jaguars team, he sees enough touches early to be productive in a game in which both he and backup Tyjae Spears should have opportunity to put up big numbers.
Tyreek Hill, WR (MIA) vs CLE (ECR: 16, Our Rank: WR1, PP: 20.86)
You remember in the intro when we said that four of the top-five receivers in ADP made up the top-four receivers in PPR scoring this season? Tyreek Hill is the fifth, and his season has been much rockier.
As is always the case with players who struggle for most of the year before ending up a Yay, there aren’t a lot of numbers to back up why a player should be a Yay. In Hill’s case, it’s particularly difficult because he has five catches combined over the last two weeks. But he also scored another touchdown last week, his fifth in seven games, and had two other targets in the end zone. He had the opportunity to have a monster day but came up short of that.
Our model, however, sees a great player with a long history of extreme productiveness on the verge of a huge breakout given his recent usage. He has 37 targets over the last four weeks and a game against the Cleveland Browns with the Dolphins still (barely) alive in the playoff picture is a good recipe for that game to happen. He’s third among all receivers in projected touchdowns, and with just a shade under 10 projected targets, he slots in this week as our model’s No. 1 wide receiver. Put him out there and let him win you a title.
The Nays: Week 17 Fantasy Players Projected to Underperform Expert Consensus
Anthony Richardson, QB (IND) vs NYG (ECR: 8, Our Rank: QB11, PP: 18.41)
Two things can be true. Last week, Anthony Richardson had a passing and rushing touchdown as part of the Indianapolis Colts’ 38-point explosion. He also only attempted 11 passes, completing seven, and because of that, finished as QB14.
Richardson is the rare quarterback whose rushing output doesn’t complement an acceptable fantasy passing output; rather, the rushing numbers provide most of his scoring. He has at least 40 rushing yards or a rushing touchdown in seven straight games. He’s also tied for 16th in fantasy points per game during that time, because he only has five passing touchdowns and one game with more than 175 passing yards.
And that is exactly what our model is expecting to happen again. He’s projected for 12 completions and the most rushing yards of any quarterback. That’s not quite enough for the model to project him as a top-10 quarterback. He falls just outside the QB1 tier.
James Cook, RB (BUF) vs NYJ (ECR: 13, Our Rank: RB27, PP: 10.19)
Here are some numbers: 305, 182, 314, 278, 303. Any guesses? Those are the carry totals for the five running backs with at least 13 rushing touchdowns this season.
Now feel free to guess which number is James Cook’s. He has four games this season with more than 15 touches. He also has only three games this season with more than three receptions. That is the textbook picture of a profile of a running back who is around RB20 on the season. It makes no sense that Cook is in the top 10, and our model hasn’t been able to reconcile him for most of the season.
How can the model project someone who is only likely to touch the ball about 12 times to be among the top running backs in any given week? Ours isn’t, anyways. We’ve been wrong on Cook this season, but ask yourself this question: Would you rather rely on Cook to average essentially one PPR point per touch to be relevant this week, or play a running back like Rico Dowdle who’s much more likely to get 20 touches and not need to be as efficient? For this week, and for most of the season, give us the volume.
Garrett Wilson, WR (NYJ) vs BUF (ECR: 25, Our Rank: WR33, PP: 12.10)
Christmas came early for Aaron Rodgers this season, when the New York Jets decided to trade for his good friend, Davante Adams. Since Week 9, Adams is fourth in the NFL in targets, with 79 in just seven games. Unfortunately, this section is about Garrett Wilson, who is merely tied for 27th in targets during that same time.
Over their last seven games, only once has Wilson had more receptions in a game than Adams and he’s only outgained Adams twice – including one game in which both were awful in an abysmal performance against the Arizona Cardinals when Wilson finished with 41 receiving yards, and Adams 31.
He is the very clear second fiddle in this offense with Adams onboard, and he’s third in the overall pecking order with Breece Hall commanding more volume as well. And mind you, this offense hasn’t been particularly potent (to put it nicely) this season. He is a risky Flex play this week.
Happy holidays, and good luck to all those still alive in their fantasy leagues!
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