The 2024-25 NBA season begins with a pair of games tonight, while the San Antonio Spurs open Thursday against the Dallas Mavericks. All eyes will be on Victor Wembanyama as the French phenom looks to build on a historic rookie year.
It’s rare in life that things are as good as they’re hyped up to be.
With the hyperbole that permeates modern society, everything is said to be either the best or the worst thing ever. Every good movie has someone online saying it’s a top-five movie of all time. There are 50,000 “best burgers” in the United States.
So, when something, or someone, is hyped up to be one of the best ever and actually lives up to it, you remember it.
That’s how Victor Wembanyama’s rookie season will be remembered. Wembanyama was one of the best prospects to come into the league in years and didn’t disappoint. He became the only player (not just rookie) to average at least 20 points, 3.5 blocks, 1.5 3-point field goals and 3.5 assists in the same season since 1979-80.
If we take out 3s, steals and blocks to get a data set that goes back all the way to the 1950-51 season, Wemby is one of only three 7-footers to average 20 points, 3.5 assists, 10.5 rebounds and shoot 79% from the foul line (Wilt Chamberlain fell way short in this category). The other two have won MVPs: Joel Embiid (three times) and Nikola Jokic (five times).
He’s an intriguing offensive talent and already one of the best defenders in the game. And now we wait to see what he will do for an encore.
Wembanyama showed us everything he could be in his rookie year. In his sophomore season, he’ll start to show us what he will be. With all the skills he flashed, it’s hard to know exactly what type of player Wembanyama will end up as, but all the outcomes are exciting.
His career is a choose-your-own-adventure book that only has happy endings. As the NBA season gets set to tip off, it’s worth examining Wembanyama’s current skill set and what kind of player he could be at season’s end for the 2024-25 San Antonio Spurs.
Dominant Defender
It’s clear that Wembanyama’s defense is closer to a finished product than his offense. He came into the league as one of the best defenders in the league, combining insane athleticism and length with an advanced defensive IQ for a rookie.
Wembanyama led the league in blocks as a rookie with 3.6 per game, well ahead of second-place Walker Kessler of the Utah Jazz at 2.4. Wemby had the most for a rookie since Shaquille O’Neal and Alonzo Mourning in 1992-93.
And everyone remembers the incredible blocks he accumulated in his first year, from dunk denials to swatted jump shots. But, as the season went along, some of his most impressive defensive plays were when he didn’t go for the block.
As is the case with most prolific shot-blocking rookies, Wembanyama would sometimes go for the block too soon and find himself out of position on defense. But as the year went on, he stayed more disciplined and used his length to bother shots while still being in position to contest passes.
This play illustrates that someone as long as Wembanyama doesn’t have to even jump to both shot attempts. Donovan Mitchell is banking on Wemby committing to the shot so he can get the ball to Jarrett Allen, but the passing lane never opens. Length and athleticism give Wembanyama huge margins for error. But the discipline displayed here is what will keep him in opponents’ nightmares.
With him, the eye test matches the analytics. He finished second in the NBA Defensive Player of the Year voting behind Rudy Gobert of the Minnesota Timberwolves and also second in the league in defensive DRIP behind Gobert. DRIP is a projection of a player’s contribution to his team’s plus/minus per 100 possessions.
With the growth expected this year, Wembanyama is the overwhelming betting favorite for Defensive Player of the Year and he’d become just the second second-year player ever to win the award (Alvin Robertson won it for the Spurs in 1985-86).
There are still growth areas for Wembanyama on defense, but they are the typical growth areas for young players. He needs to get stronger and not get pushed off his spots as often. His length can help him recover even when he is moved, but more strength will make it even harder for players to score with him as the primary defender.
The discipline he’s displayed still can give way to youthful exuberance from time to time, and that needs to be cleaned up. But, considering he is already an elite defender, the more interesting question is how the Spurs will build a defense around him.
Wembanyama has flashed more switchability than someone like Gobert, but the goal of a defense should be to have Wembanyama at the rim as much as possible, deterring every shot within a mile radius.
Obviously, varying your defense is a good idea, but Wemby should primarily be dropping and using his length to bother offensive players in the pick-and-roll. And with Chris Paul in San Antonio this year, the Spurs will invite offenses to try to attack Paul and Wembanyama in the pick-and-roll without switching. They’ll likely be comfortable switching 2 through 4 with decent length at shooting guard and quick feet at the forward spots, and Wembanyama deterring any mismatch post ups at the rim.
The Spurs finished 22nd in defensive efficiency last year, but they have the personnel to take a big step forward this year. If the team finishes in the bottom half of the league again, it’ll be a disappointment. If Wembanyama stays healthy and plays like he did last year, the Spurs should be one of the bigger risers on defense.
Offensive Outcomes
Offensively, Wembanyama isn’t as polished, but he showed a high ceiling and several intriguing skills. The question is which of those skills will drive his offensive success and which will be more complementary.
Wemby had a really good rookie season offensively with 21.4 points per game, the third most among qualifying rookies since 2000 (Blake Griffin and Zion Williamson were ahead of him). He shot only 32.5% on 3-pointers but took a lot of high-difficulty 3s and showed in the rest of his shooting profile that he should be a good enough 3-point shooter in the long run to make teams pay that leave him open.
And if teams have to respect his 3-point shot, he becomes incredibly difficult to guard.
Once Wembanyama got free off the pump fake and had a full head of steam heading toward the rim, there wasn’t a player in league history that had a shot at stopping him. Tristan da Silva could’ve been prime Hakeem Olajuwon with flubber on his shoes and it wouldn’t have mattered. Wembanyama with a runway is unstoppable and a respectable shot will get him that runway.
Turnovers were the biggest problem for Wembanyama as a rookie. He was sometimes overwhelmed by his enormous responsibility as a rookie and would lose the ball or make bad passes when he had his space taken away. It didn’t help that the Spurs opted for a Jeremy Sochan experiment at point guard to start the season. Without a real point guard on the floor, Wembanyama wasn’t put in the best position to succeed.
That won’t be a problem this year as long as Chris Paul is healthy. Paul will get Wembanyama the ball in advantageous spots, and, for Wembanyama, that’s anywhere near the basket with the slightest of advantages over his defender.
The Spurs should have a better offensive environment this year for as long as Chris Paul’s body allows him to play. And Wembanyama will be able to get the kind of easy baskets that eluded him for stretches last year.
The question the Spurs have to tackle is how often the team wants Wembanyama to be a tip of the spear player and how often the team wants him initiating the offense. On a scale of star players from Lauri Markkanen (operates the vast majority of possessions as a finisher) to Luka Doncic (orchestrates everything the offense does), the Spurs would probably like Wembanyama to fall in the Giannis Antetokounmpo range this year.
Their games are different, but Wembanyama should be a player finishing plenty of possessions while also initiating offense some, especially in transition or when he starts the possession with a mismatch.
The Spurs should continue to run all kinds of sets for Wembanyama and the roles that stick for him will be dependent on which of his skills develop the best. If his handle takes a jump, he’ll likely initiate more offense from the top of the key. If he becomes an elite passer out of the short roll, he’ll be almost impossible to stop as a screen and diver. If his shooting from deep goes up more than expected, he’ll become one of the most difficult players to guard off the ball in the league.
The smart money is on Wembanyama leveraging his wingspan around the rim as much as possible, as his wingspan and athleticism already make him elite in that aspect. If he gets his timing and understanding of the defense down, he’s going to have even more easy dunks. And the growth of his other skills will augment what he does better than anybody in the league.
It’s obvious that Wembanyama will be an elite player if he stays healthy this year. DRIP already rates him as the ninth-best player in the league. But seeing what kind of elite player he becomes will be the exciting part.
And every Spurs game this year will get us a little closer to the fully realized version of one of the best prospects in recent memory.
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