As college football’s most recognizable and coveted independent, Notre Dame watched from afar in recent years as the nation’s power conferences all join in realignment and expansion in a new, lucrative era dominated by TV contracts and revenue discussions. A lucrative future awaits the Fighting Irish if they do decide to join a conference for split revenue sharing and sever ties with Comcast NBCUniversal on a deal that goes through 2029.
As the ACC’s future hangs in the balance with Florida State and Clemson’s legal mess and other leagues recently adding power players, Notre Dame is the last big fish potentially open to free agency when the time is right.
“Nothing lasts forever, even Notre Dame’s football independence,” Irish Illustrated Tim Prister told 247Sports on Monday. “But if I had a dollar for every time during a 42-year career of covering Notre Dame that it appeared ‘the Irish have no choice but to join a conference in football,’ I’d have two fistfuls of dollar bills. From AD Jack Swarbrick and now to Pete Bevacqua, three things have been necessary to maintain its football independence — a TV partner for home games, the ability to schedule virtually any FBS team in the country in any given year, and a path to a national championship. Those three things still exist.”
Playoff expansion undoubtedly benefits the Fighting Irish, who are favored in most games on the schedule annually and take on a couple nationally-ranked opponents every year. Notre Dame is essentially gunning for one of seven available slots this season thanks to the “5-7” model in 2024 since the top four seeds are all conference-championship winners and a fifth is the guaranteed Group of Five champion.
It’s obvious the ACC would love to welcome Notre Dame in football, but the league’s TV deal simply would not pay enough to warrant the Fighting Irish making that move based on current figures. It’s the Big Ten or the SEC from an annual revenue standpoint and the biggest piece of the pie is king.
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The Big Ten started its seven-year, $7 billion-dollar media rights contract last football season with games airing on CBS, FOX and NBC.
“The ACC was always Swarbrick’s first choice because of the major markets along the East Coast,” Prister said. “Without that as an option, the Big Ten certainly would make the most sense and probably the only viable option.”
For years, Notre Dame has been mentioned as one of the “best fits” for future Big Ten expansion. Based on a variety of factors including on-field excellence, academic significance and market impact, FiveThirtyEight generated a “composite score” deep dive for each possible Big Ten expansion option in 2022 and listed the choices in tiers by best fit.
In Tier 1, Notre Dame is in a class by itself with a composite score of 73. The overwhelming strength for the Fighting Irish compared to others according to FiveThirtyEight is Notre Dame’s market impact, which includes a combination of TV ratings, an expansive media footprint and revenue figures.
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For now, the Fighting Irish are staying put and watching everything else unfold.
