It looks to be a three-horse race at the top of La Liga, as Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atlético Madrid battle it out for the 2024-25 crown. How are each side shaping up, and who are the Opta supercomputer backing for success? We analyse the key statistics.
With just over a third of the La Liga season remaining, the 2024-25 title race is shaping up to be a memorable one. Just two points separate league leaders Real Madrid and third-place Barcelona, with Atlético Madrid sandwiched in between.
This is the closest title battle at this stage of a season in Spain’s top flight since 2013-14, when the same three clubs were level on 57 points at the top of the table after 23 matches. That season eventually saw Atlético Madrid crowned as champions, winning the title after finishing three points ahead of both Madrid and Barcelona.
With another three-way tussle for the title set to take place, we analyse the strengths and weaknesses of all three contenders and assess the latest La Liga predictions via the Opta supercomputer.
Real Madrid
Having already won a record tally of La Liga titles (36), Real Madrid are looking to add one more in 2024-25. It’s going well so far, with Carlo Ancelotti’s side top of the pile on 50 points after 23 matchdays.
However, with the chasing pack so close behind, one defeat could see them drop to third and be overtaken by both city rivals Atlético and arch enemies Barcelona. That situation has come about after back-to-back winless games, first a shock 1-0 defeat at Espanyol and second a home draw with Atlético last weekend.
Anything less than a win this weekend away at Osasuna would mean that they’d collected fewer than three points over a three-game period in La Liga for the first time since November 2020. That would constitute a mini crisis.
Ancelotti’s side have issues in defence, with long-term injuries to Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão compounded by more recent problems for David Alaba, Antonio Rüdiger and Lucas Vázquez, though Ancelotti said on Friday that those three players should be back next week.
Last season, Real Madrid won the title having scored the most goals and conceded the fewest – categories that they don’t look like topping this time around. None of the last seven Spanish champions have failed to top at least one of those metrics in their title-winning season, but Madrid were the last to do so in 2016-17 (second best attack, fourth best defence).
They have struggled to replace Toni Kroos in midfield following his retirement at the end of last season. Dani Ceballos is beginning to control games more, but Aurélien Tchouaméni struggled to fill the German’s boots earlier this season.
One positive is that Kylian Mbappé has begun to find his feet in Spain after a slow start. The French forward failed to score in his first three La Liga appearances but has been involved in 18 goals in his last 18 games (16 goals, 2 assists).
Finding a way to play that suits Mbappé has seemingly led to Jude Bellingham’s attacking output decreasing, however. His minutes-per-goal rate in La Liga has nearly halved compared to last season (228 mins in 2024-25 vs 122 mins in 2023-24), while Vinícius Júnior has also struggled to make as much of an impact in games at times.
Barcelona
Barcelona started life under Hansi Flick on fire. With 11 wins in their opening 12 La Liga matches of 2024-25, they opened up a nine-point lead at the top of the table, albeit having played a game more than rivals Real Madrid at the time.
One of those victories came in an astonishing display of dominance at the Bernabéu, when they hammered their rivals 4-0 in El Clásico and ended Madrid’s unbeaten run in the league at 42 games, ensuring they didn’t equal Barça’s competition record from 2018.
Although they have won their last three matches – against bottom-half sides Valencia, Sevilla and Alavés – an eight-game slump in form between mid-November and mid-January meant they fell below Madrid and Atlético in the table. Those eight games saw them collect just six points overall (W1 D3 L4) and has now left them with fewer points overall after 23 games this season (48) than last term (50) and 2022-23 (59).
Barcelona finished 10 points behind Madrid last season, and they have mostly put their faith in young players to bring success this term. Only Valencia (24 years, 278 days) have averaged a younger starting XI than them (24y 323d) in La Liga this season, and that’s despite 36-year-old Robert Lewandowski leading their line.
The Polish striker has been in great form so far in 2024-25, topping the La Liga scoring charts with 19 goals in 22 games, while he’s been supported by 13-goal Raphinha and the excellent teenager Lamine Yamal, who is the only player in the competition to reach double figures for assists (10).
They are the league’s leading scorers with 64 goals, which is the most by a team at this stage of a season since Real Madrid’s 66 goals in 23 games back in 2015-16.
Barcelona still have to play both of their title rivals this season, while the two Madrid sides have already played each other twice (both ending 1-1). This arguably means that the title is still in Barça’s hands, and Flick has certainly had the measure of Real Madrid so far this season. On top of the 4-0 league win, Barcelona also enjoyed a 5-2 win in the Supercopa de España earlier this year despite having goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny sent off with 34 minutes remaining.
Atlético Madrid
Following their 1-1 draw with rivals Real Madrid on Matchday 23, Atlético sit a point behind them in the table. Their 49 points are the most they’ve collected at this stage of a league season since they last won the title in 2020-21 (55), but this side is the most experienced of the title contenders.
Only Rayo Vallecano (29y 75d) and Mallorca (28y 328d) have averaged an older starting XI than Atlético (28y 246d) this season. Their teams have been a year and a half older on average than Real’s (27y 52d) and nearly four years older than Barcelona’s (24y 323d).
Having surpassed 500 La Liga games in charge of Atlético with their 2-0 win over Mallorca on 1 February, coach Diego Simeone became just the ninth manager in history to achieve this feat. His tenure at the club has seen them consistently battle Barcelona and Real Madrid, with Atlético accumulating the third-most points (1,031) – a tally that’s 240 more than the next most (Sevilla, 791).
Atlético have become the most defensively sound side in the Spanish top flight in Simeone’s spell. No team have conceded fewer goals per game on average (0.77), while they’ve kept a clean sheet in nearly half of his matches in charge (48%), which is again the highest tally in the competition.
It therefore comes as no shock that they’re La Liga’s most impressive defensive side this season, too. Atlético have conceded the fewest goals (15), kept the joint-most clean sheets (11, alongside Real Sociedad) and have given up the lowest quality shots to opponents (20.3 xG faced).
Simeone has kept his squad tight this season, using just 24 players in La Liga so far – only Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano (23) have used fewer. He’s made the fourth-most changes to his starting XI (76) across the 23 games, though, ensuring that his players are kept fresh. Finishing in the top eight of the Champions League league phase has also helped them avoid two extra games in Europe – unlike Madrid.
Undoubtedly their hardest game remaining in 2024-25 is the visit of Barcelona to the Metropolitano Stadium in March on the final matchday before the international break. But this is Atlético’s fortress. They are the only unbeaten home side remaining in La Liga this season and have collected the most points in home games so far (30).
The Opta Supercomputer Predictions
The Opta supercomputer sees Real Madrid win the La Liga title in more than half of its current season projections. Across the 10,000 season simulations played out today, Madrid win La Liga 52.0% of the time. After all, they are top and… well… this is Real Madrid; they always seem to find a way to win things.
It’s absolutely a three-horse race for the 2024-25 title, though. Barcelona win it in 26.9% of simulations, while Atlético Madrid win 20.8% of the time.
There is very much an outside chance of the title going elsewhere, but that only occurred in 29 of the 10,000 simulations. Athletic Club were the victors on 28 of those, with Villarreal winning it just once.
The last time a team other than Barcelona, Real Madrid or Atlético Madrid won La Liga was back in 2003-04 when Valencia were crowned as champions. Athletic Club haven’t won La Liga since 1983-84, while Villarreal have never been champions – coming closest in 2012-13 when they finished as runners-up. In all likelihood, it will probably stay that way.
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