Following the latest round of Premier League matches, we use the Opta supercomputer to assess the current chances of the frontrunners in the title race. Remember, you can view the live predictions at any time here.
2 January
We’ve only had one Premier League game in 2025 so far, and that saw Arsenal overcome Brentford 3-1 on New Year’s Day. Given Brentford’s excellent home form this season it was an impressive result, and was a win that saw Arsenal jump over Nottingham Forest into second place.
They are, however, still six points behind Liverpool and the leaders have a game in hand. The Opta supercomputer gives Mikel Arteta’s men a 9.5% of winning the title from here, which makes them comfortably second favourites, but still miles behind Liverpool.
That’s because Arne Slot’s side continue to look imperious. They rounded off 2024 with a 5-0 demolition of West Ham in which Mohamed Salah made yet more Premier League history. His goal and two assists in that game saw him score and assist in a Premier League game for the eighth time this season, a new Premier League record for a single campaign. He looks on course for one of the greatest individual seasons in the competition’s history.
There looks to be no stopping the Reds at the moment and the Opta supercomputer agrees, giving them a huge 89.9% of winning the title.
Chelsea’s miserable Christmas period ended with a 2-0 defeat against Ipswich. That result means that the Blues picked up just one point from a possible nine in their final three games of the year. Having been as high as 5.5% to win the title in mid-December, their slump has seen those chances crater to 0.3%.
Despite picking up a win in their final game of the year, Manchester City’s chances of winning the league are still a miniscule 0.2%. Instead, their most likely finishing position according to the supercomputer is fourth.
28 December
There was always a chance we’d see another twist in the title race before the turn of the year, and that twist came at Stamford Bridge on Matchday 18.
Chelsea needed a win after dropping two points at Everton last time out, and were on course for just that after Cole Palmer put them in front against Fulham with a wonderfully taken goal, his 26th Premier League strike of 2024, the most ever scored by a Chelsea player in a calendar year in the competition.
However, Fulham had other ideas, with Harry Wilson equalising late on before fellow substitute Rodrigo Muniz won it for Marco Silva’s men in stoppage time. It was the first time Chelsea had lost a Premier League game they were leading as late as the 82nd minute since October 1999.
It was also their first defeat in the league in over two months and reduced their chances of winning the title with the Opta supercomputer from 3.1% to 1.3%, partly due to the fact their rivals didn’t suffer such a post-Christmas slip up.
Liverpool were given a slight scare on Boxing Day when they fell a goal behind to Leicester City early on at a foggy Anfield, but after Cody Gakpo’s equaliser just before half-time, Arne Slot’s men recovered to win 3-1 and extend their lead at the top of the Premier League. The Reds’ title chances have increased to 87.8% as a result.
That was followed on Friday by Arsenal securing a 1-0 win over Ipswich Town at the Emirates Stadium thanks to Kai Havertz’s first-half goal. That victory saw Mikel Arteta’s men leapfrog Chelsea into second place, six points behind Liverpool having played a game more. Arsenal’s title chances only went up slightly to 10.7%, but they remain comfortable second favourites, primed to take advantage of any mistakes from the leaders.
Manchester City’s wayward form continued with a 1-1 home draw against Everton. Bernardo Silva had given City the lead, only for Iliman Ndiaye to equalise for Sean Dyche’s men. Just to compound City’s misery further, Jordan Pickford saved an Erling Haaland penalty in the second half.
Never say never when it comes to Man City, but Pep Guardiola’s side have won just five points from their last nine games in the league, and are 14 points off the top having played a game more than Liverpool. The Opta supercomputer now gives them just a 0.2% chance of retaining their crown.
Nottingham Forest may be considered part of the title picture by some now given they moved within a point of Chelsea after their win over Tottenham, but the supercomputer isn’t yet convinced. Possibly due to Forest being just 36th in the Opta Power Rankings, below the likes of Fulham and Manchester United, they are still not given a percentage chance of winning the league.
Their 1-0 victory over Spurs took Forest to 10 league wins, already more than they managed in the entirety of last season. String a few more wins together and overtake one or both of Chelsea and Arsenal in the next few weeks and surely Nuno Espírito Santo’s men will come into consideration, though.
23 December
When Liverpool kicked off what might have been a tricky match away at Tottenham on Sunday afternoon, it looked like it could turn out to be Arsenal’s weekend in the title race.
Reigning champions Manchester City started the action on Saturday by going down 2-1 at Aston Villa – their fifth loss in their last eight Premier League matches – to put them all but out of the title race. They now win just 0.58% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations of the 2024-25 season.
Later in the day, Arsenal ran out 5-1 winners at Crystal Palace to move within three points of Liverpool at the top of the table with an impressive show of their title credentials. It was the third time in their last four away games in all competitions that they’d scored five goals, so even the concern of Bukayo Saka limping off clutching his hamstring could not dampen their mood.
On Sunday, Chelsea, who had stormed very much into the title race with five consecutive wins before this weekend, then missed the opportunity to go top when they drew at Everton. That result saw their title chances from drop 5.5% after their win over Brentford last weekend to 3.1% this week.
Once that game had finished, it felt like the momentum was with Arsenal, and their fans would have turned on their TVs to support bitter rivals Tottenham in their Sunday showdown with Liverpool.
But Arne Slot’s men had other ideas. Within 23 minutes gone, they were 1-0 up, and they doubled their lead just 13 minutes later. They carried on after the break and eventually went on to earn a statement 6-3 win that means they reach Christmas top of the table with a four-point cushion over their nearest challengers as well as a game in hand.
Liverpool now win the title in 86.0% of the supercomputer’s simulations – up from 82.0% last week. Now the best team in the world according to the Opta Power Rankings, Liverpool are huge favourites to win the title in Slot’s first season in England.
Arsenal, meanwhile, remain second favorites to win the Premier League, but they didn’t have quite the weekend they will have been for wishing for when the final whistle went in their game on Saturday. Their title chances actually ended up dropping slightly this weekend – from 10.6% to 10.3%.
16 December
It was another extremely productive weekend for Chelsea. With Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City all dropping points, the Blues were the only side entering Matchday 16 in the top four to win.
That has given their title chances a big boost. The Opta supercomputer now sees them as third favourites to win the title, with their predicted win percentage almost doubling across the matchday (2.8% up to 5.5%).
Enzo Maresca’s side have now leapfrogged Man City in the projections, with City now given a remarkably low 1.9% chance of winning the title. Pep Guardiola’s miserable run continued at the weekend with a shocking 2-1 home loss against Manchester United. They’ve now won just once in their last 11 games in all competitions.
Despite dropping points at home to Fulham, Liverpool remain in pole position. With Arsenal’s slip-up against Everton, the Reds’ title-winning chances actually increased this weekend, albeit by about 1%. Arne Slot’s men win the Premier League in a commanding 82% of simulations.
Arsenal were unable to break down a stubborn and defensively excellent Everton on Saturday, in what was their first goalless draw at the Emirates since January 2023. Their chances of winning the title slipped by 1.2% with a result that felt a lot more damaging than Liverpool’s point against Fulham.
10 December
With Liverpool’s Merseyside derby against Everton postponed due to Storm Darragh, their rivals for the Premier League title had a chance to get closer to them across the games this weekend.
All three of Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea gained ground on Liverpool, but Enzo Maresca’s Blues’ were the only ones to secure a victory.
Chelsea found themselves 2-0 down early on at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday, but their eventual 4-3 win over Spurs saw them move up to second place and within four points of Arne Slot’s Reds at the top of the Premier League table. Of course, Liverpool still have a game in hand on their rivals, but the close proximity of Chelsea could start to concern them.
Maresca was quick to dismiss hopes of a title challenge last week, saying it’ll come too early for his young Chelsea squad, and the Opta supercomputer tends to agree. Across the 10,000 current simulations, Chelsea won the Premier League just 2.8% of the time, but this has gone up from 1.0% before the weekend. If Chelsea keep winning, it won’t take long for the supercomputer to recalibrate its expectations.
Only hours before Chelsea turned defeat into victory in North London, Arsenal could only manage a point south of the river at Fulham.
A point wasn’t a disaster away at a very capable Fulham side, especially as they trailed to a Raúl Jiménez goal at half-time, but the Gunners will be gutted it wasn’t all three. After yet another corner goal via William Saliba, Bukayo Saka thought he’d won the game with a strike with only minutes remaining. However, VAR intervention saw the goal ruled out for offside against Gabriel Martinelli, and Mikel Arteta’s side now trail Liverpool by six points having played a game more.
That result saw Arsenal’s projected title chance fall from 12.5% after the midweek games, to 11.8% today. Not a dramatic drop, but a drop, nonetheless.
Man City’s poor form continued with a 2-2 draw at Crystal Palace, having to twice come from behind to earn a point at Selhurst Park on Saturday.
City’s four-season reign as Premier League champions is under serious threat of coming to an end, with the Pep Guardiola’s side winning the title in just 4.3% of current season simulations.
So, despite not playing this weekend, that means that Liverpool’s chances of a Premier League title in 2024-25 have gone up since last Thursday. Slot’s side win the title in 81.1% of current supercomputer simulations, which is very slightly up from 80.9% coming into Matchday 15.
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