Fewer home Premier League games are being won than in any other season when fans have been in the stadiums. We take a look at the numbers and try to find an explanation.
The rise in away wins during the COVID-affected 2020-21 Premier League season essentially proved that fans really do have an impact.
In the one campaign for which there is data on how football plays out when there are no supporters in the stands, home advantage was at its weakest.
In the Premier League era, that season has both the lowest-ever proportion of games ending in home wins (37.9%) and the highest-ever rate of away wins (40.3%).
We’re not quite back at those levels – it really does seem as though fans make a difference to the outcome of matches – but 2024-25 is seeing fewer home wins than any other Premier League season apart from that COVID-struck campaign.
Following a weekend that saw six of nine Premier League games won by the away side and only two won by the home team, just 39.0% of games in 2024-25 have been won by the hosts. That’s the second-lowest rate in any season in the Premier League era, and the lowest ever with fans in the stands.
This also comes after the first matchday in Premier League history on which nine away teams have each scored at least two goals. Wolves could make it 10 out of 10 away at Chelsea on Monday night.
So, with away teams thriving and home wins occurring less frequently than in any other season outside the COVID era, it’s natural to wonder why this might be happening.
Over the course of the entire Premier League era, 45.8% of games have been won by the home team (5,779 of 12,624 games). There have been several seasons – including as recently as 2022-23 (48.4%) – when the rate at which home teams have won games has ticked up close to or even above 50%.
Clearly, home advantage is real; it is a major factor in the outcome of Premier League matches. And, as already discussed, the COVID-affected 2020-21 season did a pretty good job of proving that supporters are a prominent part of the reason for that.
The explanation for why home wins are down this season could be made up of a few elements.
Firstly, there could just be some variance in it. We are not yet 22 full matchdays into a 38-game season, so there’s a chance these numbers will revert to something closer to the mean the further we get into the season.
Another point is that there are few very good home records this season. There are few grounds that appear to be fortresses.
Arsenal are the only team who remain undefeated at home, but they have also drawn four of their 11 games. And they have a tough run of home fixtures remaining, yet to host four of the other six teams in the current top seven, so their home record could get even worse.
Liverpool, Aston Villa and Brighton have all lost only one home league game, but they have all been inconsistent on home soil, respectively winning seven of 10, six of 11, and three of 10 home games so far.
In mid-December, Brentford had the best home record in the Premier League, having won seven and drawn one of their eight games at the Gtech Community Stadium until that point. Since then, however, they have faced last season’s top three teams and this season’s surprise package, Nottingham Forest. They have lost three and won none of those four games.
There are also a few teams that might have been considered particularly strong, especially at home, who are having grossly underwhelming seasons. Manchester City are the most prominent of those, with the fallen champions 12 points off the pace at the top of the table, having won only six of their 10 home games.
Meanwhile, Manchester United and Tottenham are having truly dreadful seasons and there is no reason for any team to be afraid of going to play them with attacking intent.
Away teams are emboldened unlike ever before. The average possession for away sides is higher in 2024-25 than in any other Premier League season, at an average of 49.6%. It used to be the case that teams would travel to away grounds, sit back, and hope to nick something. Nowadays, teams don’t change the way they play as much based on whether they are at home or on the road. It means teams play the way they always do when playing away and are therefore more likely to play well and pick up a result.
Away teams are also averaging more touches in the opposition box (25.5 per game) than in any other Premier League season on record (since 2006-07), while the 4.4 shots on target per game we are seeing from away teams this season is the second-highest recorded, only marginally lower than the 4.45 per game in 2023-24. Expected goals for away teams are at their highest (1.4 per game) on record (since 2016-17).
It follows that away teams are scoring more goals than ever before in the Premier League era, at an average of 1.5 per game.
More goals are being scored in general in the Premier League these days, in part because games are longer due to more time being added on thanks to new directives aimed at combatting time-wasting. Maybe it just so happens that the increase in goals is being felt more by away teams this season than by home sides.
Those extra goals are helping away teams turn draws into wins, like Liverpool did at Brentford on Saturday, or turn defeats into draws, like Aston Villa did later that day at Arsenal.
There seems to be less fear of going to big grounds than there used to be. Newcastle’s St James’ Park isn’t quite the intimidating force it once was, highlighted by Bournemouth’s impressive 4-1 win there this weekend.
To say teams don’t fear going to Old Trafford is an understatement. Many relish it. “I’m not surprised,” Brighton manager Fabian Hürzeler said after his team won away to Man Utd on Sunday. United have lost more of their opening 12 home league games of this season (six) than in any other season since 1893-94.
The strength of the teams expected to finish in the middle of the Premier League seems to be higher this season and, alongside widespread inconsistency, that is leading to more away wins. The Premier League is basically becoming more and more unpredictable.
But are the fans playing a part? If the COVID season proved that supporters are needed to help teams win, perhaps it’s worth considering if they aren’t doing enough this season. Those supporting teams like City, United and Spurs might be struggling to create a hostile atmosphere knowing there’s not much chance of a win and so little to play for. Arsenal fans might be losing belief in Mikel Arteta as the gap to Liverpool at the top of the table grows. There is less of a feel-good atmosphere at the Emirates this season than there has been in the last couple of years.
Or perhaps that is giving the impact of fans too much credit. More likely, all of these factors have combined to create a perfect storm, making away wins a more common sight. It isn’t yet clear whether this is a trend that will continue or simply a one-off, freak season, much like the COVID-era campaign itself.
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