Despite Manchester City hosting Chelsea this weekend, there’s an argument that the Premier League clash at the Vitality Stadium between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest is the more interesting game. We evaluate why.
When the Premier League fixtures are released in June, we all immediately look for the biggest and juiciest games.
Manchester City vs Arsenal, Liverpool vs Manchester United… Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
With all due respect, we doubt even fans of Bournemouth and Forest would have circled this one in their calendars last summer, yet here we are on Matchday 23 of the 2024-25 Premier League season and you could make a solid argument that their meeting on Saturday at the Vitality Stadium is the most interesting game of the weekend.
Even though Manchester City host Chelsea at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday in a key battle for the top four spots, many will be anticipating the clash on the south coast earlier in the day more fervently. It’s also a match that could have significant repercussions on the top four places in the Premier League, with Forest in third travelling to seventh-place Bournemouth.
Andoni Iraola’s side are only three points off the top four, and with our very own supercomputer suggesting it’s very likely that fifth place in England’s top flight will also qualify for the Champions League this season, dreams can absolutely be dreamt by both sets of fans.
Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last nine league meetings with Forest (W5 D4) since a 2-1 away loss in the Championship in February 2015, while Forest have won just one of their last 10 away league games against the Cherries (D3 L6), beating them 2-1 in the Championship in August 2014.
Interestingly, the first goal may not be all that important. The team scoring first hasn’t gone on to win any of the five Premier League meetings between these two teams, and in all five cases, it’s the home side who have opened the scoring.
Having said that, their respective outstanding 2024-25 campaigns make it feel like previous meetings are somewhat irrelevant.
Bournemouth have gone 10 Premier League games without defeat (W6 D4), with only Liverpool (17) and Arsenal (12) on a longer ongoing run at present.
Forest are also in sensational form, having won more points over the last 10 Premier League games than any other side (25 – W8 D1 L1), with no team conceding fewer goals across this run (9). Nuno Espírito Santo’s men have also won their last four league away games, last winning five consecutive on the road in the league in January 1994, while they last did so in the top flight in March 1989.
Both have significantly overperformed against pre-season expectations and in some ways have done so in relatively similar style.
No other Premier League teams can match them for the speed at which they move the ball upfield, while they make up two of the three teams with the fewest passes per sequence on average.
That’s reflected in their respective possession stats, too. Forest may be flying high, but as we analysed earlier this week, they are doing so despite having the lowest average possession in the league (39.2%). Bournemouth aren’t much bigger fans of having the ball themselves, with the sixth-lowest average (45.9%).
You would therefore expect that, whether they want to or not, Iraola’s men will have more possession on Saturday. They have had over 50% possession in seven league games this season, winning three, drawing two and losing two.
That is almost where the similarities end, though. Bournemouth have made the fourth most high turnovers (193) – winning the ball back within 40m of the opponents’ goal – and have had the most shots from high turnovers in the Premier League this season (45), while they’re also one of two sides yet to concede a goal from a turnover themselves (along with Arsenal).
However, while Forest have made the third-fewest high turnovers in the division (128), they lead the Premier League for goal-ending high turnovers (7), which hints at the difference in efficiency between the two teams.
As well as Bournemouth have done, they should probably be doing even better. Only Man City (380), Liverpool (376) and Chelsea (360) have had more shots than them (359), while only Liverpool (50.2) and Chelsea (46.1) have recorded more expected goals (xG) than their 43.3.
However, they have scored just 36 goals, underperforming their xG by 7.3; only bottom-place Southampton (7.4) have underperformed against their xG by more in the Premier League this season. Forest have scored 33 goals from 28.2 xG, overperforming by 4.8, the fourth-most in the Premier League.
A high volume of shots could be a factor for Bournemouth this weekend, but they will need to be more clinical with their finishing. Forest have conceded just 22 goals from 292 shots faced in the Premier League this season, meaning their opponents have converted the lowest proportion of their shots in the competition (7.5%). The Cherries did score four times from their 19 shots last weekend at Newcastle, though.
A major reason for Forest’s solidity has been the partnership at centre-back of Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo. The positive news of the latter signing a new contract with the club this week will likely only boost the confidence of their backline even more. The Brazilian has made the most clearances in the Premier League (136), at least 15 more than anyone else, while Milenkovic is 11th in that list (97).
The pair have also played a big part in Forest having the best duel success in the league (52.2%), while Bournemouth have the worst (47.4%). They also have the second-worst aerial duel success (46.7%), which doesn’t bode well ahead of welcoming Chris Wood – also fresh off signing a new deal – to the Vitality. He has scored more headed goals (5) than anyone else in the division this season, while he (12) and Milenkovic (13) are both in the top 10 for most headed shots attempted.
Due to Bournemouth’s high xG, the Opta expected points model also suggests they might even be underachieving.
Our expected points model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in each match based on the xG value of every shot taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Each match is then simulated 10,000 times. The expected points for each team in each match can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.
It’s not an exact science, as xG data doesn’t include a lot of factors, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. Nevertheless, it can still give us a good guide as to how much we can read into the table at this stage of the season.
According to that model, Bournemouth should actually be where Forest are now, in third place, while the Tricky Trees should be ninth, showing how well they have done to overperform and come out on the right side of the fine margins.
On the opening weekend of the season, Forest and Bournemouth played out a 1-1 draw at the City Ground. Wood put the hosts ahead in the first half before Antoine Semenyo levelled with just four minutes remaining.
It set the tone for both. Making themselves tough to beat, and with Wood and Semenyo leading the way.
Wood has 14 Premier League goals to his name this season, his joint-best return in a single campaign (also 2023-24 and 2019-20).
Semenyo has a more modest six goals in the league, with a further three assists, and the former Bristol City winger has been his team’s brightest spark in attack. Only Erling Haaland (88) and Mohamed Salah (83) have attempted more shots than Semenyo’s 81 in the Premier League this season, while only Iliman Ndiaye (54) and Mohammed Kudus (51) have completed more dribbles than his 45.
The Cherries are far from a one-man team in attack, though. With his hat-trick at Newcastle last Saturday, Justin Kluivert became just the fourth different Bournemouth player to score 10+ goals in a single Premier League campaign after Joshua King (twice), Callum Wilson and Dominic Solanke. However, he will want to find the net this weekend at the Vitality for what would be a rare feat; just one of his 10 goals this term has come at home.
Forest will need to be mindful of the hosts’ activity on the bench, too. Bournemouth have more goals (11) and goal involvements (17) from substitutes than any other team, which perhaps unsurprisingly also means they’ve won the most points via their sub goal involvements (17) than any other team this season.
Should Bournemouth have opportunities at goal, though, they mustn’t count their chickens before they hatch; not with Ola Aina around. As we wrote earlier this week, nobody has made more goal-line clearances this season than Aina (3), and all three have been crucial to the team’s result.
In total, Aina’s three goal-line clearances against Ipswich Town, Liverpool and Southampton have essentially earned Forest five points: wins rather than draws with Ipswich and Saints, and a draw rather than a defeat against Arne Slot’s league leaders. Five points from goal-line clearances is more than any other player in England’s top flight, and two of his three have come in Forest’s last two league games.
We don’t think it’s too harsh to say that Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest will have been seen by many as a game you wouldn’t normally glance twice at as a neutral, and could traditionally have been a prime candidate for the unwanted last-on-Match-of-the-Day spot in most previous seasons.
However, heading into MD23 this season, there will rightly be clamour to watch what should be a fascinating contest when the irresistible force of Bournemouth meets the immovable object of Nottingham Forest.
It’s a shame it’s not on television in the UK, but you can’t have everything.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You can also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
