Chip Kelly and UCLA should have been a happy marriage, at least if you consider the surface-level results. The Bruins were a combined 25-13 over the last three seasons, which is the best extended stretch for the program since the 1980s outside of a run by Jim Mora from 2012 to 2015. Kelly inherited a losing product. He turned that around, which is why last March he earned a contract extension through 2027.
This leads to a puzzling question, at least if you’re only considering the public results: Why did Kelly so actively pursue other jobs this offseason, including interviewing to become the Seattle Seahawks’ offensive coordinator on the eve of National Signing Day? Kelly did ultimately leave, bolting from Los Angeles for UCLA’s future Big Ten foe, Ohio State, as the program’s replacement for Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator.
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So, how did things get so bad? Why did Kelly, one of the foremost coaching innovators of this century, want to leave and give up being a head coach?
The obvious answer probably has a lot to do with it. A section of UCLA’s administrators and boosters tried to fire him a few months ago. Why stick around for the axe to fall in 2024? Kelly knew his buyout drops from $8.5 million to $4.27 million next December. The Bruins athletic department might be bleeding money — more on that in a minute — but that $4.27 million number after a Big Ten cash infusion will be far more palatable for the UCLA administration.
You might be wondering why UCLA, one the nation’s proudest and most successful public schools, is having to pinch pennies. The reason is a lack of revenue.
UCLA athletics brought in just more than $103 million during the 2022 fiscal year, according to the Knight Commission Database. That would rank last among public schools in the new-look Big Ten conference; private institutions like USC and Northwestern don’t have to disclose their financial data. Oregon brought in a hair over $50 million more than the Bruins, while Michigan ($210 million) and Ohio State ($251 million) more than doubled UCLA’s athletic revenues.
That inability to generate cash has crippled the athletic department. The Bruins posted a $36.6 million deficit for the 2023 fiscal year, according to the Los Angeles Times, and have now had an eight-figure shortfall for five straight years. There’s a reason UCLA made the move to the Big Ten — it needed a cash infusion.
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Those are the restrictive circumstances Kelly has navigated since he arrived in Westwood. For a bit more context, here’s how UCLA ranked in recruiting spending in 2022 compared to some of its soon-to-be Big Ten peers.
UCLA — $1.72 million
Washington — $2.49 million
Penn State — $3.17 million
Ohio State — $4.17 million
As with revenue, the Bruins would have ranked last among Big Ten public schools in recruiting spending during the 2022 year.
UCLA’s recruiting results have lagged under Kelly. The Bruins, likely in part because of the Kelly hot seat talk, finished 18th of 18th schools in the new-look Big Ten recruiting rankings for the 2024 cycle. That result is a bit of an outlier, but UCLA has never ranked better than fifth in the Pac-12 recruiting rankings since Kelly arrived on campus.
Part of the Bruins’ lack of high-profile high school recruiting results is the program’s transfer portal emphasis. Few schools have used the portal more successfully than the Bruins, earning back-to-back top-10 transfer classes in 2022 and 2023.
But it’s worth noting that other programs have managed to find success in both areas at the same time. There will be some who argue Kelly did not emphasize recruiting enough, and there is merit to that speaking to industry sources. He doesn’t emphasize high school recruiting like some of the top head coaches in college football. But the Bruins are also working at an immediate disadvantage versus some of their peers on the recruiting trail.
UCLA’s recruiting staff is small, especially compared to those found at places like Oregon or USC. The Bruins also lack an activated donor base to really compete from a name, image and likeness (NIL) standpoint, per sources. There’s a reason why UCLA lost starters such as John Humphrey and Kamari Ramsey to crosstown rival USC this offseason. The Bruins have to ball on a budget (much like the Moneyball Oakland A’s) and that’s a tough thing to do in the high-stakes world of college football.
You can see that issue pop up in other areas, too, as UCLA lost fast-rising defensive coordinator, D’Anton Lynn, to USC this offseason. The Trojans lured Lynn away with a $2 million-a-year offer, more than twice what he made at UCLA, according to Bruce Feldman.
Beyond money, there’s also the fact that Kelly would have immediately entered the 2024 season on the hot seat. UCLA athletic director Martin Jarmond may have given Kelly a vote of confidence earlier this offseason, but that came with a caveat.
“We all understand we’ve got to do better, and we will do better,” Jarmond told the LA Times. “I’m confident Chip and the staff are going to work together to tackle those areas we need to improve and get better.”
The problem with that? His roster and schedule.
Yes, the Bruins do return starting QB Ethan Garbers. But they rank 95th nationally in returning production, according to Bill Connelly. That’s not a lot of experience returning, especially ahead of what will be a difficult Year 1 voyage in the Big Ten. The scheduling gods have not done UCLA any favors. Just look at its first five games:
- at Hawaii
- Indiana
- at LSU
- Oregon
- at Penn State
There’s a real possibility that UCLA is 2-3 entering the heart of Big Ten play. Then the Bruins have games with Iowa, Washington and USC along with trips to Nebraska and Rutgers.
That’s a brutal schedule, and Kelly knew it.
Nobody knows his team better, and Kelly was signaling for all to see that he wanted to get out now.
In all fairness to UCLA, to pretend like this is a one-sided issue would be disingenuous. Kelly certainly has his shortcomings, including recruiting and fundraising. He’s also failed to reach the Pac-12 title game in six seasons with the program. But when you consider all the mounting issues that UCLA faces entering 2024 in addition to Kelly’s general distaste with the general status of college football in 2024, it’s understandable why Kelly so brazenly looked around for a new job.
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Now, the Bruins have to find a new coach. Kelly is gone but many of UCLA’s problems remain.
