Stephen Larkham and the ACT Brumbies are gambling by choosing to take an understrength side across to Fiji for their Super Rugby Pacific season opener. A loss against the Drua, followed by other tough fixtures in the opening month, threatens to derail their 2025 season before it builds any momentum.
The decision to rest Wallabies stars James Slipper, Nick Frost, and Spring Tour standouts Tom Wright and Len Ikitau due to Rugby Australia policies is risky because of the Fijian Drua’s formidable home record. In the last two seasons, the Drua have lost just two matches there, winning 11.
A Brumbies side featuring four debutants and missing both their rested stars and other injured Wallabies face a significant challenge in overcoming both the Drua and the conditions on Saturday, in what will be their first-ever match in Fiji.
The way the Drua lift in front of their passionate home fans usually ends with victory, and was even enough to see them edge out the championship winning Crusaders in 2023.
The resting strategy is risky. Larkham is trying to balance the success of his side with rules from headquarters that mandate Wallabies stars have to be rested once within a seven-game stretch to remain fresh for the huge upcoming Lions Tour.
While Rugby Australia’s poster boy Waratahs have benefited from exemptions to representative resting policies in the past, the Brumbies won’t see such head office grace.
In 2023, resting policies cost the ACT side a top 2 finish and a likely home semi-final after an understrength Brumbies outfit went down to the Western Force.
(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
Like all Australian sides, the Brumbies will have to factor in the policy this season as they attempt to bring some silverware back to Canberra, acutely aware that it strikes during a challenging opening month.
Larkham’s gambit plays with fire. As well as the rested players, his team are without captain Allan Alaalatoa, Charlie Cale, and John Eales Medallist Rob Valetini through injury. The Brumbies will have both Noah Lolesio and Ryan Lonergan on the field, but there’s a lot of talent missing across the park.
If the Brumbies lose in Fiji, Larkham could be regretting his call by the end of round 4. While the side’s perfect home 2024 record suggests their round 2 match up against the Force in Canberra should go their way, that’s followed immediately by a tour of New Zealand where the Brumbies will face the champion Blues and the runners-up Chiefs.
That’s a tough opening month.
Larkham is confident in his strategy, but I doubt he or the club would be happy come early March to be sitting with a one-from-four record, adrift of their usual standing healthily ahead of other Australian teams and near the top of the ladder.
But it’s because of the Brumbies’ looming tour across the ditch that Larkham has likely made this judgement call for round 1, which he described as a calculated risk.
Ultimately, success isn’t measured by making semi finals. It’s measured by winning championships. If Bernie’s Brumbies want to finally break free of perennially losing semi-finals and find a new ceiling for success, they need to learn to win in New Zealand.
Larkham wants that too. That’s why he’s putting a premium on the upcoming New Zealand matches. With seven games to choose from before the bye, the Brumbies could have rested some Wallabies during easier home games that follow the Kiwi tour.
His call to do so first up in Fiji instead demonstrates not just compliance with Rugby Australia regulations, but an emphasis on having players fit and ready for those match-ups with the Blues and the Chiefs that could define their 2025 season.
The Brumbies had a drought-breaking win over the Highlanders in Dunedin last season. Winning in Auckland or Hamilton (or both!) in March is the perfect way for the club to continue that momentum, put aside the demons of semi finals past, and get used to winning in New Zealand again.
The Brumbies are a professional outfit. Win or lose in Fiji on Saturday afternoon, they’ll perform well. If they pull off a rare win against a home Drua side, Bernie’s calculated gambit will definitely have been worth it.
If they come away with a loss against the Drua, perhaps we shouldn’t judge it as a failure just yet. As he navigates the season with Rugby Australia’s policies in mind, Larkham is playing chess, not checkers.
Two or three moves ahead, with all his star Wallabies on the field during the key moments in Hamilton and at Eden Park, he might just pull off his tactical gambit that’ll make a loss in Fiji worth it and set up the Brumbies for finals success.
