As the losses piled up and the offense’s ineptitude continued, so did the questions surrounding a change at the quarterback position.
Week after week, head coach Kevin Stefanski insisted that highly paid Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson would remain the starter.
“I think Deshaun gives us the best chance to win, continues to give us the best chance to win,” Stefanski said again ahead of Sunday’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals that dropped the team to 1-6 – tied with the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers for the NFL’s worst record.
But now the decision has been taken out of Stefanski’s hands after Monday’s injury update informed Browns players, coaches and fans that Watson suffered a season-ending torn Achilles in the second quarter of Sunday’s game. It was reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers’ injury with the New York Jets at the beginning of last season.
And on Monday, Stefanski backtracked somewhat and did not confirm that Watson, who has two years and $92 million in fully-guaranteed compensation left on his deal, will be the starter once he is healthy in 2025.
“Obviously I believe in Deshaun, but I also think it’s important just to acknowledge that he just had a bad injury and a bad break for him and we’re feeling bad for him,” Stefanski told reporters. “[I] know that he’ll bounce back, but not getting into all those things down the road.”
It’s just the latest turn in what has been a disastrous trade and signing for the franchise. Some have even gone as far as calling it the worst of all time.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who was promoted to QB2 in Week 7 and replaced Watson after the ruptured Achilles injury in the first half, didn’t make the most of his first opportunity by completing 11 of 24 for 82 yards and two interceptions.
Thompson-Robinson also suffered a finger injury, forcing third-stringer Jameis Winston into the game during the final moments. His Week 8 status is in question, leaving Winston as the most likely QB1.
Does Winston, a failed starter in his own right, give Cleveland a better chance to win (at least in 2024) than Watson did? There’s certainly more than enough data that shows it shouldn’t be difficult to put up a better performance.
Among QBs who have at least 100 passing attempts, Watson ranks last in the NFL in well-thrown percentage (75.6) despite having the ninth-lowest air yards per attempt (7.39). Only Case Keenum of the 2019 Houston Texans, Dwayne Haskins Jr. of the 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers, Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals in 2019 and Joe Flacco with the 2016 Browns have posted a worse well-thrown percentage with fewer than 7.4 air yards per attempt (min. 200 attempts).
Obviously, the shorter the throws, the easier it is to be accurate.
WORST WT% WITH 7.4 AVG. AIR YARDS OR FEWER (SINCE 2016)
- 72.0 – Case Keenum, Houston Texans (2019)
- 73.8 – Dwayne Haskins Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers (2020)
- 74.6 – Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (2019)
- 75.5 – Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns (2016)
- 75.6 – Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns (2024)
- 76.3 – Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (2020)
- 76.7 – Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers (2021)
- 77.0 – Joe Flacco, Cleveland Browns (2019)
- 77.4 – Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (2021)
- 77.5 – Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2022)
- 77.5 – Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders (2021)
Watson also ranks second to last in yards per attempt (5.31) and no one in the league has been sacked more times (33).
It all adds up to the Browns ranking last in the league in offensive EVE, which measures the average yards gained or lost compared to the league-wide expected amount in given situations.
But perhaps most telling is that Watson ranks second to last in the NFL among qualified QBs in accumulated passing EVE – ahead of only Denver Broncos rookie Bo Nix. Passing EVE takes a closer look at QB play by measuring performance in expected passing situations.
Watson’s has-to-be-a-typo minus-328.4 accumulated passing EVE is as bad as it sounds. It means he’s lost a total of 328.4 yards compared to the expected amount in expected passing situations over the course of the season.
For a little perspective, Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers leads the NFL at plus-311.8.
WORST 2024 PASSING EVE AMONG QUALIFIED QBs
- -339.8 – Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
- -328.4 – Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
- -221.1 – Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots
- -185.9 – Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
- -168.1 – Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Winston, who would have to be the guy if Thompson-Robinson’s finger keeps him out, hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2019. But over his 80 career starts, he’s averaged 226.8 yards per game and 7.69 yards per attempt and thrown for an 88.1 passer rating.
Since he joined Cleveland in 2022, Watson has averaged 177.1 yards per game, 6.04 yards per attempt and put up an 80.7 rating over his 19 starts.
This is not to say how great Winston has been, but more about how poorly Watson has played. Winston infamously had a 33-touchdown, 30-interception season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2019. And among those with at least 600 attempts since 2016, he has the third-worst pickable pass percentage (5.89).
He also owns the fourth-worst well-thrown percentage over that span (72.7), though it’s important to note he also has the highest air yards per attempt (10.65). In fact, he’s the only QB airing it out to a tune of more than 10 yards per throw since 2016.
It’s clear the Browns don’t exactly have a ton of great options, which is perhaps why (along with that contract) Stefanski opted to stick with Watson for so long. Thompson-Robinson, who debuted last season, has thrown for a total of 522 yards with an average of 3.8 yards per attempt with one TD and six picks in his nine career games.
It’s also clear that this team is not going to the playoffs at 1-6. Well, the Browns have a 2.7% chance to get there, according to our projection model. (Only the Tennessee Titans are a longer shot at 1.2%.)
But perhaps an offensive reboot around workhorse running back Nick Chubb with Watson on the sideline could be refreshing for everyone involved – especially angry Browns fans who have been hungry for change.
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