Two bonus spots in the 2025-26 Champions League will be awarded to the domestic leagues whose teams perform best in Europe in 2024-25. So, will the Premier League earn one of those spots? We asked the Opta supercomputer to predict what will happen.
The new-look UEFA Champions League for 2024-25 is in full swing, but we’ve found a reason to start thinking about 2025-26.
For many of the Premier League’s best clubs the title is looking out of the question, so qualifying for next season’s Champions League will be the aim for this campaign. There are also overachieving teams like Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth for whom the prospect of Champions League qualification would have previously been beyond their wildest dreams but is now looking eminently possible.
As was the case last season, two extra spots in the Champions League are up for grabs, meaning there is a possibility that fifth place in England’s top flight will be enough to make it into Europe’s biggest, best, most glamorous and most lucrative competition.
Where those two extra spots go will be decided based on the performances of each league’s teams in all three European competitions in 2024-25, using a system in which points are awarded for wins and progress through the rounds.
So, the better each nation’s teams do in the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League in 2024-25, the higher the chance of that nation being awarded a bonus Champions League spot for the following campaign.
Last season, the failure of England’s best teams to perform in Europe meant the Premier League missed out on a fifth place in the Champions League. Those spots were instead awarded to Italy and Germany.
But will fifth place in the Premier League this season get a Champions League spot? We’re here to try to predict the answer to that question.
We’ve used the Opta supercomputer‘s season projections for each European competition to try to predict which leagues will earn the extra Champions League spots. Using these projections, we can give an expected points (xPts) total for each association in the UEFA coefficients ranking, which then tells us how likely it is each nation will earn an additional place in next season’s Champions League.
We will update this page throughout the season.
24 January
The new-look, expanded league phases in each of Europe’s three major competitions are taking shape, with just one matchday left in the Champions League and Europa League, and the Conference League group stage already wrapped up.
Manchester City had come into the season as favourites to win the Champions League, but their progress beyond the league phase is far from certain following this week’s 4-2 defeat to PSG. They need a win in their final game to make it into the play-off round.
But otherwise, the English teams are faring very well indeed. Liverpool are already guaranteed to qualify for the knockouts, while Arsenal are as good as sure of a spot, too. Aston Villa are backed by the supercomputer to progress, too. We have explained all the possible permutations in the Champions League here.
In the Europa League, both Manchester United and Tottenham look likely to finish in the top eight after wins over Rangers and Hoffenheim this week, while Chelsea have already confirmed top spot in the Conference League having won all six of their games.
Six of the seven English clubs are looking likely to earn automatic qualification for the last 16, and you would be brave to bet against City recovering to make it through. The Opta supercomputer gives Pep Guardiola’s side a 63.8% chance of doing enough to make the play-off round.
The Premier League boasts the supercomputer’s favourites to win the Champions League (Liverpool) and the Conference League (Chelsea), as well as the third- and fourth-most likely teams to win the Europa League (Spurs and United, respectively). It all means the English top flight is very, very likely in the eyes of the supercomputer to earn a fifth Champions League spot next season – given a 97.9% chance according to our projections.
Italy are right up there, too, though they are currently being let down by Bologna, who have already had their elimination from the Champions League confirmed.
But Internazionale, Milan, Atalanta and Juventus are all still going strong, and Inter are second favourites to win the whole thing.
In the Europa League, Lazio are the only club guaranteed to be in the last 16 and they are the supercomputer’s favourites to lift the trophy. In the Conference League, Fiorentina finished third in the league phase.
Serie A is therefore given a 76.2% chance of earning a fifth Champions League spot for a second season running.
Spain, with seven teams competing in Europe this season, are the only other nation given any kind of significant chance of earning a fifth Champions League spot, but the supercomputer rates their chances at a relatively low 24.0%.
That’s because heavyweights Real Madrid are floundering in the lower part of the table in the Champions League and Girona have already been eliminated. In the Europa League, Real Sociedad are heading for the play-off round, while Real Betis face the same fate in the Conference League.
That means four of the seven Spanish teams are facing a battle to make the knockout rounds.
Otherwise, Portugal (0.9%), Belgium (0.9%) and Germany (0.1%) are all but certain not to earn an extra Champions League spot but do still have a slim hope.
There’s a long way to go yet, but if the supercomputer’s projections are anything to go by, fifth place in the Premier League in 2024-25 is likely to be enough for Champions League qualification.
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